Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026
Research article
 | 
25 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 25 Mar 2026

Toward early warning of drought impacts: a framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK

Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Opeyemi E. Adedipe, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy J. Barker, and Jamie Hannaford

Data sets

ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30

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Short summary
This study presents a data-driven framework to predict real-world drought impacts. Different modelling approaches were tested and evaluated in the United Kingdom using predictions at the time of occurrence, with the best-performing method selected for forecasting impacts months ahead. Both predictions and forecasts were validated using independent UK data and applied to Germany to test transferability. The results support early warning systems and improved drought risk planning.
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