Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1347-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1347-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 16 Mar 2026
| 16 Mar 2026
Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions – a study focused on Burundi
Jess L. Delves
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
GLOMOS-UNU-EHS, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
Piero Campalani
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
Jesica Piñon
METEOSIM S.L., Barcelona, 08028, Spain
Stefan Schneiderbauer
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
GLOMOS-UNU-EHS, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
Mateo Moreno
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
OpenGeoHub Foundation, Doorwerth, 6865 HK, the Netherlands
Maria Belen Benito Oterino
Seismic Engineering Group (GIIS) UPM, Madrid, 28031, Spain
Eduardo Perez
IDOM Consulting, Engineering, Architecture, S.A.U., Bilbao, 48015 Spain
Massimiliano Pittore
Eurac Research, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6387, 2026
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Glaciers and snow contribute to buffer river streamflow during droughts. Due to climate change, their role is shrinking with severe implications for water management. Here we investigated the role of glaciers to buffer the 2003, 2005 and 2022 droughts that occurred in the upper Adige River Basin (Italy). Glaciers provided 4 to 12 % of summer water during droughts and their buffering is weakening due to their retreat with lower contribution in 2022 compared to the similar drought of 2003.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Alice Crespi, Elena Maines, Stefano Terzi, and Massimiliano Pittore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6781–6809, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6781-2025, 2025
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We studied a severe compound drought and heatwave event in the Adige River basin in May 2022 and found that similar events are now hotter and drier due to current warming. These changes worsen water stress and river drying. We show that timing matters: events in June are now more critical than in April, as the snowmelt contribution to streamflow in June has become much lower than in the past. However, many climate models still fail to capture these changes.
Stefan Steger, Raphael Spiekermann, Mateo Moreno, Sebastian Lehner, Katharina Enigl, Alice Crespi, and Matthias Schlögl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4940, 2025
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We developed three space-time models to predict the daily impact potential of mass movements on infrastructure in the Alps, distinguishing slides, flows, and falls. The basin-scale approach accounts for potential process paths and integrates meteorological, geo-environmental, and exposure information. Results demonstrate suitability for impact-based warning. We discuss the broad applicability of the modelling framework to other impacts and beyond the warning context.
Alice Crespi, Katharina Enigl, Sebastian Lehner, Klaus Haslinger, and Massimiliano Pittore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3686, 2025
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Extreme precipitation poses a risk for the Alpine region as it can trigger floods, debris flows, landslides and rockfalls, which can have severe consequences for people and their activities. This study investigates how past precipitation extremes in a transboundary Alpine area can be detected, especially those corresponding with hazard occurrences. The findings can inform risk managers and support the methodological choices for the development of effective early warming systems.
Gabriella Tocchi, Massimiliano Pittore, and Maria Polese
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3665–3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3665-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3665-2025, 2025
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This study identifies different types of urban areas in Italy based on population, location, and economic conditions to understand their vulnerability to risks. Using public data and clustering methods, it defines 18 urban archetypes. These archetypes provide a structured understanding of urban vulnerability, helping policymakers assess disaster risk, allocate adaptation funding, and design targeted resilience strategies for urban settlements at regional and national scales.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
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We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, 2021
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This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
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Short summary
This scientific paper presents a multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. The study identifies key risk hotspots with estimated economic losses of 92 million USD (2.5 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)). Climate change projections indicate increased precipitation. The paper highlights data limitations and stresses the need for improved hazard models and the consideration of compounding risks in future assessments.
This scientific paper presents a multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding,...
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