Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
Research article
 | 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 07 Feb 2025

Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting

David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez

Viewed

Total article views: 979 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
734 195 50 979 55 85
  • HTML: 734
  • PDF: 195
  • XML: 50
  • Total: 979
  • BibTeX: 55
  • EndNote: 85
Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jan 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jan 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 979 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 950 with geography defined and 29 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
Download
Short summary
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint