Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting
David Montiel-López,Sergio Molina,Juan José Galiana-Merino,Igor Gómez,Alireza Kharazian,Juan Luis Soler-Llorens,José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa,Arianna Guardiola-Villora,and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Department of Applied Physics, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Juan José Galiana-Merino
University Institute of Physics Applied to Sciences and Technologies, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Department of Physics, Systems Engineering and Signal Theory, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Igor Gómez
Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Department of Applied Physics, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Alireza Kharazian
Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies “Ramón Margalef” (IMEM), University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Juan Luis Soler-Llorens
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa
Department of Architectural Constructions, University of Alicante, Ctra. San Vicente del Raspeig, s/n, 03080 Alicante, Spain
Arianna Guardiola-Villora
Department of Continuum Mechanics and Theory of Structures, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Municipality of Orihuela, 03300 Orihuela, Spain
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Total article views: 4,406 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the...
