Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
Research article
 | 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 07 Feb 2025

Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting

David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez

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Short summary
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
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