Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting

Montiel-López, David; Molina, Sergio; Galiana-Merino, Juan José; Gómez, Igor; Kharazian, Alireza; Soler-Llorens, Juan Luis; Huesca-Tortosa, José Antonio; Guardiola-Villora, Arianna; Ortuño-Sáez, Gonzalo

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

Research article

|

07 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 07 Feb 2025

Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting

David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez

Data sets

Repository for the manuscript 'Computing time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues. A first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting' David Montiel-López https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13735833

Catálogo de terremotos IGN – Instituto Geográfico Nacional https://doi.org/10.7419/162.03.2022

HORUS - HOmogenized instRUmental Seismic catalog Barbara Lolli et al. https://doi.org/10.13127/HORUS

Short summary

We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.