Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4843-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4843-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 05 Dec 2025
| 05 Dec 2025
Controls over debris flow initiation in glacio-volcanic environments in the Southern Andes
Ivo Fustos-Toribio
Departamento de Ingeniería en Obras Civiles, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad de La Frontera, Francisco Salazar #01145, Temuco, Chile
Daniel Basualto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad de La Frontera, Francisco Salazar #01145, Temuco, Chile
Ardy Gatica
Departamento de Ingeniería en Obras Civiles, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad de La Frontera, Francisco Salazar #01145, Temuco, Chile
Alvaro Bravo-Alarcón
Programa de Magíster en Ciencias de La Ingeniería, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Departamento de Ingeniería en Obras Civiles, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad de La Frontera, Francisco Salazar #01145, Temuco, Chile
José-Luis Palma
Departamento Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Concepción, Víctor Lamas 1290, Concepción, Chile
Gabriel Fuentealba
Ministerio del Interior, Temuco, Chile
Programa de Magíster en Ciencias de La Ingeniería, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile
Sergio A. Sepúlveda
Departamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada
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We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
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Short summary
We investigated how volcanic soils and heavy rainfall trigger dangerous debris flows in the southern Andes. Our findings show saturated volcanic-soils above less permeable glacial deposits create ideal conditions for slope failures. Monitoring soil moisture and surface changes helps predict these events. This knowledge aids in protecting communities from debris flow hazards, increasingly important under climate change.
We investigated how volcanic soils and heavy rainfall trigger dangerous debris flows in the...
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