Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Research article
 | 
28 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 28 Nov 2025

Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe

Pere Joan Gelabert, Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, Clara Ochoa, Fermín Alcasena, Johan Sjöström, Christopher Marrs, Luís Mário Ribeiro, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Carmen Bentué Martínez, Emilio Chuvieco, Cristina Vega-García, and Marcos Rodrigues

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Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
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Short summary
Wildfires threaten ecosystems and communities across Europe. Our study developed models to predict where and why these ignitions occur in different European environments. We found that weather anomalies and human factors, like proximity to urban areas and roads, are key drivers. Using Machine Learning our models achieved strong predictive accuracy. These insights help design better wildfire prevention strategies, ensuring safer landscapes and communities as fire risks grow with climate change.
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