Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe
Pere Joan Gelabert
Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain
Adrián Jiménez-Ruano
Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain
GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
Clara Ochoa
Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
Fermín Alcasena
Institute for Sustainability & Food Chain Innovation, Department of Engineering, Public University of Navarre, Campus Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona, Spain
Johan Sjöström
Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE), Göteborg, Sweden
Christopher Marrs
Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Luís Mário Ribeiro
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidade de Coimbra, ADI, Coimbra, Portugal
Palaiologos Palaiologou
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Management, Agricultural University of Athens, Karpenisi, Greece
Carmen Bentué Martínez
GEOT Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
Emilio Chuvieco
Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
Cristina Vega-García
Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain
Marcos Rodrigues
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida, Spain
GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
Data sets
Model predictions of "Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe" P. J. Gelabert et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17660557
Short summary
Wildfires threaten ecosystems and communities across Europe. Our study developed models to predict where and why these ignitions occur in different European environments. We found that weather anomalies and human factors, like proximity to urban areas and roads, are key drivers. Using Machine Learning our models achieved strong predictive accuracy. These insights help design better wildfire prevention strategies, ensuring safer landscapes and communities as fire risks grow with climate change.
Wildfires threaten ecosystems and communities across Europe. Our study developed models to...
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