Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2025
| 22 Oct 2025
A pathways analysis dashboard prototype for multi-risk systems
Julius Schlumberger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV, Delft, the Netherlands
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Robert Šakić Trogrlić
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV, Delft, the Netherlands
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jung-Hee Hyun
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Marleen de Ruiter
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Utrecht University (UU) Faculty of Geosciences, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands
Related authors
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan M. Kropf, Viktor Wattin Håkansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, Fred Hattermann, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3055–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it is crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Sophie L. Buijs, Inga J. Sauer, Chahan M. Kropf, Samuel Juhel, Zélie Stalhandske, and Marleen C. De Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3200, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how repeated disasters affect recovery across housing, health, economic systems, and governance. Our findings show that failing to recover fully between events can increase long-term risks but also offers opportunities for learning and adaptation. Understanding these dynamics can help societies plan better, reduce vulnerability, and build resilience to increasingly frequent and severe hazards.
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2751–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple hazards, occurring simultaneously or consecutively, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analysed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate number of the impacts, but there appear to be different archetypal patterns in which the impacts compound.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk management faces growing challenges from multiple, changing hazards. Interviews with stakeholders in five European regions reveal that climate change, urban growth, and socio-economic shifts increase vulnerability and exposure. Measures to reduce one risk can worsen others, highlighting the need for better coordination. The study calls for flexible, context-specific strategies that connect scientific risk assessments with real-world decision-making.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Hunter C. Quintal, Antonia Sebastian, Marc L. Serre, Wiebke S. Jäger, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
High quality weather event datasets are crucial to community preparedness and resilience. Researchers create such datasets using clustering methods, which we advance by addressing current limitation in the relationship between space and time. We propose a method to determine the appropriate factor by which to resample the spatial resolution of the data prior to clustering. Ultimately, our approach increases the ability to detect historic heatwaves over current methods.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Vylon Ooms, Thijs Endendijk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Peter Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1882, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Intense rainfall events cause increasingly severe damages to urban areas globally. We use unique insurance claims data to study the effect of nature-based and other adaptation measures on damage. We compare an area in Amsterdam where measures have been implemented to a similar, adjacent area without measures using an innovative method. We find a significant reduction of damage where the adaptation measures were implemented. Urban areas can reduce rain damage by implementing adaptation measures.
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella Loureiro, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and Belgium were hit by an extreme flood event with over 200 fatalities. Our study provides, for the first time, critical insights into the operational flood early-warning systems in this entire region. Based on 13 expert interviews, we conclude that the systems strongly improved in all countries. Interviewees stressed the need for operational impact-based forecasts, but emphasized that its operational implementation is challenging.
Ekta Aggarwal, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kartikeya S. Sangwan, Rajiv Sinha, Sophie Buijs, Ranjay Shrestha, Sanjeev Gupta, and Alexander C. Whittaker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The occurrence of frequent floods in recent years due to changing weather, heavy rainfall, and the natural landscape, has caused major damage to lives and property. This study looks at flood risks in the Ganga Basin, focusing on the factors that cause floods, the areas affected, and the vulnerability of people. The study uses NASA's night-time lights to track human activities. This helps to show how risks are connected to expanding human activities, and changing resilience to floods.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Nivedita Sairam and Marleen de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights gaps in disaster risk assessments, particularly regarding disease outbreaks after natural hazards. It calls for: 1) learning from compound risk models to understand disaster and disease probabilities, 2) including health metrics in risk frameworks, and 3) improving data and modeling for health impacts. The authors propose a research agenda to enhance disaster risk management.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 353–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study finds that heatwave, drought and wildfire events occurring simultaneously in Scandinavia are pronounced in the summer months; and the heat-drought 2018 event led to a drop in gross domestic product, affecting agriculture and forestry imports, further impacting Europe’s trade balance. This research shows the importance of ripple effects of multi-hazard, and that forest management and adaptation measures are vital to reducing the risks of heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable areas.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-hazard events can be devastating and there are indications that in such situations the exposed risk-bearers are affected more severely compared to single-hazard events. We present some statistical modeling approaches to determine possible interrelationships of hazards and tested them for the specific case of the countries within the Danube Region. We especially focused on the question whether certain hazards are more likely to occur due to preceding hazardous events.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Claudia Canedo-Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 995–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a major natural hazard that causes large losses for farmers. This study evaluated drought severity based on a drought classification scheme using NDVI and LST, which was related to the ENSO anomalies. In addition, the spatial distribution of NDVI was associated with precipitation and air temperature at the local level. Our findings show that drought severity increases during El Niño years, and as a consequence the socio-economic drought risk of farmers will likely increase.
Cited articles
Amar, R., Eagan, J., and Stasko, J.: Low-level components of analytic activity in information visualization, IEEE Symposium on Information Visualization, 111–117, https://doi.org/10.1109/infvis.2005.1532136, 2005. a, b
Bajracharya, S., Carenini, G., Chamberlain, B., Chen, K., Klein, D., Poole, D., Taheri, H., and Öberg, G.: Interactive Visualization for Group Decision Analysis, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 17, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622018500384, 2018. a
Bartholomew, E. and Kwakkel, J. H.: On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization, Environmental Modelling & Software, 127, 104699, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104699, 2020. a
Bautista, J. and Carenini, G.: An empirical evaluation of interactive visualizations for preferential choice, in: Proceedings of the working conference on Advanced visual interfaces, ACM, New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1145/1385569.1385603, 2008. a
Bonham, N., Kasprzyk, J., and Zagona, E.: post-MORDM: Mapping policies to synthesize optimization and robustness results for decision-maker compromise, Environmental Modelling & Software, 157, 105491, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105491, 2022. a, b
Bonham, N., Kasprzyk, J., Zagona, E., and Smith, R.: Interactive and Multimetric Robustness Tradeoffs in the Colorado River Basin, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 150, https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6199, 2024. a, b, c
Boon, E., Wright, S. J., Biesbroek, R., Goosen, H., and Ludwig, F.: Successful climate services for adaptation: What we know, don't know and need to know, Climate Services, 27, 100314, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100314, 2022. a
Börner, K., Bueckle, A., and Ginda, M.: Data visualization literacy: Definitions, conceptual frameworks, exercises, and assessments, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116, 1857–1864, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807180116, 2019. a
Buskop, F. E., Sperna Weiland, F., and van den Hurk, B.: Amplifying exploration of regional climate risks: clustering future projections on regionally relevant impact drivers instead of emission scenarios, Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 045030, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f8f, 2024. a
Casner, S. M.: Task-analytic approach to the automated design of graphic presentations, ACM Transactions on Graphics, 10, 111–151, https://doi.org/10.1145/108360.108361, 1991. a
Ceneda, D., Gschwandtner, T., May, T., Miksch, S., Schulz, H.-J., Streit, M., and Tominski, C.: Characterizing Guidance in Visual Analytics, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 23, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1109/tvcg.2016.2598468, 2017. a, b
Conati, C., Carenini, G., Hoque, E., Steichen, B., and Toker, D.: Evaluating the Impact of User Characteristics and Different Layouts on an Interactive Visualization for Decision Making, Computer Graphics Forum, 33, 371–380, https://doi.org/10.1111/cgf.12393, 2014. a, b, c, d
Correa, C. D., Chan, Y.-H., and Ma, K.-L.: A framework for uncertainty-aware visual analytics, in: 2009 IEEE Symposium on Visual Analytics Science and Technology, IEEE, https://doi.org/10.1109/vast.2009.5332611, 2009. a
Cradock-Henry, N. A. and Frame, B.: Balancing scales: Enhancing local applications of adaptation pathways, Environmental Science & Policy, 121, 42–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.001, 2021. a
de Angeli, S., Malamud, B. D., Rossi, L., Taylor, F. E., Trasforini, E., and Rudari, R.: A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 102829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829, 2022. a
de Rigo, D., Rodriguez-Aseretto, D., Bosco, C., Di Leo, M., and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.: An Architecture for Adaptive Robust Modelling of Wildfire Behaviour under Deep Uncertainty, in: Environmental Software Systems. Fostering Information Sharing, edited by: Hřebíček, J., Schimak, G., Kubásek, M., and Rizzoli, A. E., vol. 413 of IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, , Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 367–380 ISBN 978-3-642-41150-2, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41151-9_35, 2013. a
de Ruiter, M. C., de Bruijn, J. A., Englhardt, J., Daniell, J. E., de Moel, H., and Ward, P. J.: The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes, Earth's Future, 9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001531, 2021. a
Di Fant, V., Middelkoop, H., Dunn, F. E., and Haasnoot, M.: Supporting adaptive pathways planning using archetypes for climate adaptation, Regional Environmental Change, 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02349-7, 2025. a
Dimara, E., Bezerianos, A., and Dragicevic, P.: Conceptual and Methodological Issues in Evaluating Multidimensional Visualizations for Decision Support, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 24, 749–759, https://doi.org/10.1109/TVCG.2017.2745138, 2018. a, b, c, d
Dzemyda, G., Kurasova, O., and Žilinskas, J.: Multidimensional data visualization: Methods and applications/Gintautas Dzemyda, Olga Kurasova, Julius Žilinskas, vol. volume 75 of Springer optimization and its applications, Springer, New York and London, ISBN 978-1-4419-0235-1, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-0236-8, 2013. a
Franconeri, S. L., Padilla, L. M., Shah, P., Zacks, J. M., and Hullman, J.: The Science of Visual Data Communication: What Works, Psychological science in the public interest: a journal of the American Psychological Society, 22, 110–161, https://doi.org/10.1177/15291006211051956, 2021. a, b
Gill, J. C., Malamud, B. D., Barillas, E. M., and Guerra Noriega, A.: Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020. a
Gold, D. F., Reed, P. M., Gorelick, D. E., and Characklis, G. W.: Power and Pathways: Exploring Robustness, Cooperative Stability, and Power Relationships in Regional Infrastructure Investment and Water Supply Management Portfolio Pathways, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002472, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002472, 2022. a, b
Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., van Beek, E., and van Deursen, W. P. A.: Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment, Climatic Change, 115, 795–819, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0444-2, 2012. a, b
Haasnoot, M., Warren, A., and Kwakkel, J. H.: Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP), in: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty, edited by: Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M., and Popper, S. W., Springer eBook Collection, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 71–92, ISBN 9783030052522, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_4, 2019. a
Haasnoot, M., Lawrence, J., and Magnan, A. K.: Pathways to coastal retreat, Science, 372, 1287–1290, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi6594, 2021. a
Haasnoot, M., Di Fant, V., Kwakkel, J., and Lawrence, J.: Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 88, 102907, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102907, 2024. a, b, c
Hadjimichael, A., Schlumberger, J., and Haasnoot, M.: Data visualisation for decision making under deep uncertainty: current challenges and opportunities, Environmental Research Letters, 19, 111011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad858b, 2024. a, b
Hadka, D., Herman, J., Reed, P., and Keller, K.: An open source framework for many-objective robust decision making, Environmental Modelling & Software, 74, 114–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.014, 2015. a
Hanger-Kopp, S., Thaler, T., Seebauer, S., Schinko, T., and Clar, C.: Defining and operationalizing path dependency for the development and monitoring of adaptation pathways, Global Environmental Change, 72, 102425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102425, 2022. a
Heer, J. and Shneiderman, B.: Interactive Dynamics for Visual Analysis, Queue, 10, 30–55, https://doi.org/10.1145/2133416.2146416, 2012. a
Hindalong, E., Johnson, J., Carenini, G., and Munzner, T.: Towards Rigorously Designed Preference Visualizations for Group Decision Making, in: 2020 IEEE Pacific Visualization Symposium (PacificVis), IEEE, https://doi.org/10.1109/pacificvis48177.2020.5111, 2020. a, b, c
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Trogrlić Šakić, R., Reiter, K., Ward, P. J., de Ruiter, M. C., Duncan, M. J., Torresan, S., Ciurean, R., Mysiak, J., Stuparu, D., and Gottardo, S.: Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management, iScience, 26, 106736, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106736, 2023. a
Hove, S. E. and Anda, B.: Experiences from Conducting Semi-structured Interviews in Empirical Software Engineering Research, in: 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05), 23, IEEE, ISBN 0-7695-2371-4, https://doi.org/10.1109/METRICS.2005.24, 2005. a
IPCC: Annex II: Glossary, in: Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, 2897–2930, ISBN 9781009325844, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.029, 2022. a
Itoh, T., Kumar, A., Klein, K., and Kim, J.: High-dimensional data visualization by interactive construction of low-dimensional parallel coordinate plots, Journal of Visual Languages & Computing, 43, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvlc.2017.03.001, 2017. a
Johnson, B. R., Ager, A. A., Evers, C. R., Hulse, D. W., Nielsen-Pincus, M., Sheehan, T. J., and Bolte, J. P.: Exploring and Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making in the Face of Deep Uncertainty, Fire, 6, 276, https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6070276, 2023. a
Johnson, C.: Top scientific visualization research problems, IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications, 24, 13–17, https://doi.org/10.1109/mcg.2004.20, 2004. a
Kool, R., Lawrence, J., Larsen, M. A. D., Osborne, A., and Drews, M.: Spatiotemporal aspects in coastal multi-risk climate change decision-making: Wait, protect, or retreat?, Ocean & Coastal Management, 258, 107385, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107385, 2024. a
Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., and Walker, W. E.: Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world, Climatic Change, 132, 373–386, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4, 2015. a
Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., and Haasnoot, M.: Coping with the Wickedness of Public Policy Problems: Approaches for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 142, 01816001, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000626, 2016. a
Laal, M. and Laal, M.: Collaborative learning: what is it?, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 31, 491–495, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.12.092, 2012. a
Mackinlay, J.: Automating the design of graphical presentations of relational information, ACM Transactions on Graphics, 5, 110–141, https://doi.org/10.1145/22949.22950, 1986. a, b
McEvoy, S., Langendijk, G., Jeuken, A., and Haasnoot, M.: What is needed to make climate resilient development pathways planning actionable in cities?, Environmental Research Communications, 7, 082501, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adf9c9, 2025. a
Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. J., and Bryan, B. A.: Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty, Global Environmental Change, 65, 102186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186, 2020. a
Mullins, P. M. and Treu, S.: A task-based cognitive model for user-network interaction: defining a task taxonomy to guide the interface designer, Interacting with Computers, 5, 139–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/0953-5438(93)90016-m, 1993. a, b, c, d
Munoz, C., Campbell, A., Barber, S., Hemsworth, P., and Doyle, R.: Using Longitudinal Assessment on Extensively Managed Ewes to Quantify Welfare Compromise and Risks, Animals, 8, 8, https://doi.org/10.3390/ani8010008, 2018. a
Munzner, T.: Process and Pitfalls in Writing Information Visualization Research Papers, in: Information Visualization, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 134–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-70956-5_6, 2008. a, b
Nilsson, M.: Important interactions among the sustainable development goals under review at the high-level political forum 2017, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep02837.pdf (last access: 13 November 2024), 2017. a
Padilla, L. M., Creem-Regehr, S. H., Hegarty, M., and Stefanucci, J. K.: Decision making with visualizations: a cognitive framework across disciplines, Cognitive research: principles and implications, 3, 29, https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-018-0120-9, 2018. a
Plaisant, C.: The challenge of information visualization evaluation, in: Proceedings of the working conference on Advanced visual interfaces, edited by: Costabile, M. F., ACM, New York, NY, USA, 109–116, ISBN 1581138679, https://doi.org/10.1145/989863.989880, 2004. a
Rogers, E. M.: Diffusion of innovations, Free Press, New York and London and Toronto and Sydney, fifth edition edn., ISBN 9780743258234, https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/kxp/detail.action?docID=4935198 (last access: 13 November 2024), 2003. a
Ruppert, T., Bernard, J., and Kohlhammer, J.: Bridging Knowledge Gaps in Policy Analysis with Information Visualization, 1617–5468, https://dl.gi.de/handle/20.500.12116/17254, 2013. a
Sakic Trogrlic, R., Reiter, K., Ciurean, R., Gottardo, S., Torresan, S., Daloz, A. S., Ma, L., Padron-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., and Ward, P. and the MYRIAD-EU Team: Challenges in Assessing and Managing Multi-Hazard Risks: A European Stakeholders' Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3843, 2024. a, b, c
Salo, A. and Hämäläinen, R. P.: Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Group Decision Processes, in: Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation, edited by: Shakun, M. F., Kilgour, D. M., and Eden, C., vol. 4 of Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 269–283, ISBN 978-90-481-9096-6, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9097-3_16, 2010. a
Schlumberger, J.: Pathways Analysis Dashboard Input and Code, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17387349, 2025. a
Schlumberger, J., Stuparu, D., Ciurean, R. L., Duncan, M., Mysiak, J., Khazai, B., Rimmer, J., Dochiu, C., and Claassen, J.: D1.3 Report on policies, policy-making processes, and governance for multi- hazard, multi-risk management, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7096834, 2022. a, b
Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J., Bril, V., van der Weide, L., and de Ruiter, M.: Waas-MR model (Version 6), Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10183850, 2023. a, b
Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bril, V., van der Weide, L., and de Ruiter, M.: Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi–Risk System, Earth's Future, 12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004288, 2024. a, b, c, d
Sedlmair, M., Meyer, M., and Munzner, T.: Design Study Methodology: Reflections from the Trenches and the Stacks, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 18, 2431–2440, https://doi.org/10.1109/TVCG.2012.213, 2012. a
Shavazipour, B., López-Ibáñez, M., and Miettinen, K.: Visualizations for decision support in scenario-based multiobjective optimization, Information Sciences, 578, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2021.07.025, 2021. a, b, c, d
Shneiderman, B.: The eyes have it: a task by data type taxonomy for information visualizations, in: IEEE symposium on visual languages, IEEE Comput. Soc. Press, 336–343, ISBN 0-8186-7508-X, https://doi.org/10.1109/VL.1996.545307, 1996. a, b
Siirtola, H.: Direct manipulation of parallel coordinates, in: CHI '00 extended abstracts on Human factors in computing systems, edited by: Tremaine, M., ACM Digital Library, New York, NY, USA, 119–120, ISBN 1581132484, https://doi.org/10.1145/633292.633361, 2000. a
Siirtola, H., Laivo, T., Heimonen, T., and Räihä, K.-J.: Visual Perception of Parallel Coordinate Visualizations, in: 2009 13th International Conference Information Visualisation, 3–9, IEEE, https://doi.org/10.1109/IV.2009.25, 2009. a
Simpson, N. P., Mach, K. J., Constable, A., Hess, J., Hogarth, R., Howden, M., Lawrence, J., Lempert, R. J., Muccione, V., Mackey, B., New, M. G., O'Neill, B., Otto, F., Pörtner, H.-O., Reisinger, A., Roberts, D., Schmidt, D. N., Seneviratne, S., Strongin, S., van Aalst, M., Totin, E., and Trisos, C. H.: A framework for complex climate change risk assessment, One Earth, 4, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.005, 2021. a, b
Simpson, N. P., Williams, P. A., Mach, K. J., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Haasnoot, M., Segnon, A. C., Campbell, D., Musah-Surugu, J. I., Joe, E. T., Nunbogu, A. M., Sabour, S., Meyer, A. L. S., Andrews, T. M., Singh, C., Siders, A. R., Lawrence, J., van Aalst, M., and Trisos, C. H.: Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake, iScience, 26, 105926, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.105926, 2023. a
Smith, R., Kasprzyk, J., and Dilling, L.: Testing the potential of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) with Colorado water managers, Environmental Modelling & Software, 117, 149–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.011, 2019. a
Streit, M. and Gehlenborg, N.: Bar charts and box plots, Nature Methods, 11, 117, https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.2807, 2014. a
Thaler, T., Hanger-Kopp, S., Schinko, T., and Nordbeck, R.: Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management, iScience, 107073, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.107073, 2023. a, b
Trindade, B. C., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G. W.: Deeply uncertain pathways: Integrated multi-city regional water supply infrastructure investment and portfolio management, Advances in Water Resources, 134, 103442, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103442, 2019. a
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022: Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future, 2022. a
Walker, D. H. T., Bourne, L. M., and Shelley, A.: Influence, stakeholder mapping and visualization, Construction Management and Economics, 26, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190701882390, 2008. a
Ward, P. J., Daniell, J., Duncan, M., Dunne, A., Hananel, C., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Tijssen, A., Torresan, S., Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Sillmann, J., Couasnon, A., Koks, E., Padrón-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., Tronstad Lund, M., Adesiyun, A., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Alabaster, A., Bulder, B., Campillo Torres, C., Critto, A., Hernández-Martín, R., Machado, M., Mysiak, J., Orth, R., Palomino Antolín, I., Petrescu, E.-C., Reichstein, M., Tiggeloven, T., Van Loon, A. F., Vuong Pham, H., and de Ruiter, M. C.: Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022. a
Wehrend, S. and Lewis, C.: A problem-oriented classification of visualization techniques, in: Proceedings of the First IEEE Conference on Visualization: Visualization `90, IEEE Comput. Soc. Press, 139–143, ISBN 0-8186-2083-8, https://doi.org/10.1109/VISUAL.1990.146375, 1990. a
Werners, S. E., Wise, R. M., Butler, J. R., Totin, E., and Vincent, K.: Adaptation pathways: A review of approaches and a learning framework, Environmental Science & Policy, 116, 266–275, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.11.003, 2021. a
Westra, S. and Zscheischler, J.: Accounting for systemic complexity in the assessment of climate risk, One Earth, 6, 645–655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.05.005, 2023. a
Woodruff, M. J., Reed, P. M., and Simpson, T. W.: Many objective visual analytics: rethinking the design of complex engineered systems, Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 48, 201–219, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-013-0891-z, 2013. a
Short summary
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint