Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal's Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulations

Furian, Wilhelm; Sauter, Tobias

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 10

Research article

|

06 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 06 Oct 2025

Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal's Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulations

Wilhelm Furian and Tobias Sauter

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025-supplement

Model code and software

3D CFD GLOF modeling using OpenFOAM Wilhelm Furian and Tobias Sauter https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16022091

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Short summary

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) continue to threaten high-mountain communities in Nepal. We simulate potential GLOF events from five glacial lakes in the Everest region during the 21st century using a 3D flood model and several breach and SSP scenarios. Large GLOFs could extend over 100 km and inundate 80 to 100 km of roads/trails, 735 to 1989 houses and 0.85 to 3.52 km² of agricultural land. The results help to assess the changing GLOF impacts and support more accurate risk assessments.