Extreme heat and mortality in the state of Rio de Janeiro in November 2023: attribution to climate change and ENSO

Collazo, Soledad; Barriopedro, David; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Beguería, Santiago

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 9

Research article

|

10 Sep 2025

Research article |

| 10 Sep 2025

Extreme heat and mortality in the state of Rio de Janeiro in November 2023: attribution to climate change and ENSO

Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025-supplement

Data sets

Global mean temperature anomalies Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/

ENSO NOAA https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.anom.data

Mortality in the State of Rio de Janeiro Secretaria de Estado de Saude of Rio de Janeiro http://sistemas.saude.rj.gov.br/tabnetbd/dhx.exe?sim/tf_sim_do_geral.def

Model code and software

SoleCollazo/Non-stationary-GEV: NSGEV\_rio\_v2.1 (v2.1) Soledad Collazo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13913445

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Short summary

In 2023, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heat waves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows that global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2 °C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to one in three fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heat waves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.