Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model

Rovithakis, Anastasios; Burke, Eleanor; Burton, Chantelle; Kasoar, Matthew; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Seiradakis, Konstantinos D.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 9

Research article

|

09 Sep 2025

Research article |

| 09 Sep 2025

Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model

Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

Data sets

ISIMIP3a atmospheric climate input data (v1.2) Stefan Lange et al. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.982724.2

Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5) Burned Area (0.1) Yang Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7668423

ISIMIP3a Simulation Data from the Fire Sector (v1.0) Chantelle Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.446106

Short summary

We used a land surface computer model to forecast how climate change will impact wildfires in Greece. Our results show a significant increase in future burnt area due to hotter, drier climate. Allowing vegetation to change with the climate lessens this increase overall, since fire is no longer igniting in areas already burnt, and it even led to projected decreases in the agricultural areas in the north of the country.