Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
 | 
09 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 09 Sep 2025

Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model

Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

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Short summary
We used a land surface computer model to forecast how climate change will impact wildfires in Greece. Our results show a significant increase in future burnt area due to hotter, drier climate. Allowing vegetation to change with the climate lessens this increase overall, since fire is no longer igniting in areas already burnt, and it even led to projected decreases in the agricultural areas in the north of the country.
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