Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 05 Aug 2025
| 05 Aug 2025
Is considering (in)consistency between runs so useless for weather forecasting?
CNRM, Toulouse University, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France
François Bouttier
CNRM, Toulouse University, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olivier Nuissier
CNRM, Toulouse University, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France
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This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
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Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By studying how weather scenarios persist over successive forecasts, it appears that conclusions can be drawn about forecasts' reliability.
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and...
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