Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2025

Is considering (in)consistency between runs so useless for weather forecasting?

Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier

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Latest update: 13 Jun 2026
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Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By studying how weather scenarios persist over successive forecasts, it appears that conclusions can be drawn about forecasts' reliability.
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