Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2025

Is considering (in)consistency between runs so useless for weather forecasting?

Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier

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Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By studying how weather scenarios persist over successive forecasts, it appears that conclusions can be drawn about forecasts' reliability.
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