Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 13 Jan 2025
| 13 Jan 2025
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Clément Bouvier
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Benjamin Doiteau
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Florian Pantillon
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Victoria A. Sinclair
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Related authors
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Luis Blacutt, Runlong Cai, Samara Carbone, Yvette Gramlich, Liine Heikkinen, Dominic Heslin-Rees, Wei Huang, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Markku Kulmala, Paolo Laj, Valeria Mardoñez-Balderrama, Claudia Mohr, Isabel Moreno, Pauli Paasonen, Wiebke Scholz, Karine Sellegri, Laura Ticona, Gaëlle Uzu, Fernando Velarde, Alfred Wiedensohler, Doug Worsnop, Cheng Wu, Chen Xuemeng, Qiaozhi Zha, and Federico Bianchi
Aerosol Research, 3, 15–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-3-15-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines new particle formation (NPF) in the Bolivian Andes at Chacaltaya mountain (CHC) and the urban El Alto–La Paz area (EAC). Days are clustered into four categories based on NPF intensity. Differences in particle size, precursor gases, and pollution levels are found. High NPF intensities increased Aitken mode particle concentrations at both sites, while volcanic influence selectively diminished NPF intensity at CHC but not EAC. This study highlights NPF dynamics in the Andes.
Daniel Köhler, Petri Räisänen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drive these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift.
Tuomas Naakka, Daniel Köhler, Kalle Nordling, Petri Räisänen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Bjørn H. Samset, Victoria A. Sinclair, Jennie L. Thomas, and Annica L. M. Ekman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3458, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effects on polar climates of warmer sea surface temperatures and decreasing sea ice cover have been studied using four climate models with identical prescribed changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover. The models predict similar changes in air temperature and precipitation in the polar regions in a warmer climate with less sea ice. However, the models disagree on how the atmospheric circulation, i.e. the large-scale winds, will change with warmer temperatures and less sea ice.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, and Thomas Rieutord
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The predictability of Mediterranean cyclones is investigated through a large dataset of 1960 cyclones tracks, ensuring robust statistical results. The motion speed of the cyclone appears to determine the predictability of its location. In particular, the location of specific slow cyclones concentrated in the Gulf of Genoa is remarkably well predicted. It is also shown that the intensity of deep cyclones, occurring in winter, is particularly poorly predicted in the Mediterranean region.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Zoé Brasseur, Julia Schneider, Janne Lampilahti, Ville Vakkari, Victoria A. Sinclair, Christina J. Williamson, Carlton Xavier, Dmitri Moisseev, Markus Hartmann, Pyry Poutanen, Markus Lampimäki, Markku Kulmala, Tuukka Petäjä, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Erik S. Thomson, Kristina Höhler, Ottmar Möhler, and Jonathan Duplissy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11305–11332, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) strongly influence the formation of clouds by initiating the formation of ice crystals. However, very little is known about the vertical distribution of INPs in the atmosphere. Here, we present aircraft measurements of INP concentrations above the Finnish boreal forest. Results show that near-surface INPs are efficiently transported and mixed within the boundary layer and occasionally reach the free troposphere.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2879, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations, and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show successful results , positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Clément Bouvier, Daan van den Broek, Madeleine Ekblom, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2961–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An analytical initial background state has been developed for moist baroclinic wave simulation on an aquaplanet and implemented into OpenIFS. Seven parameters can be controlled, which are used to generate the background states and the development of baroclinic waves. The meteorological and numerical stability has been assessed. Resulting baroclinic waves have proven to be realistic and sensitive to the jet's width.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Victoria A. Sinclair and Jennifer L. Catto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the relationship between the strength of mid-latitude cyclones and their precipitation, how this may change in the future, and whether it depends of the type of cyclone. The relationship between cyclone strength and precipitation increases in warmer climates and depends strongly on the type of cyclone. For some cyclone types there is no relation between cyclone strength and precipitation. For all cyclone types, precipitation increases with uniform warming and polar amplification.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Diego Aliaga, Otso Peräkylä, Liine Heikkinen, Alkuin Maximilian Koenig, Cheng Wu, Joonas Enroth, Yvette Gramlich, Jing Cai, Samara Carbone, Armin Hansel, Tuukka Petäjä, Markku Kulmala, Douglas Worsnop, Victoria Sinclair, Radovan Krejci, Marcos Andrade, Claudia Mohr, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4559–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the chemical composition of atmospheric cluster ions from January to May 2018 at the high-altitude research station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes. With state-of-the-art mass spectrometers and air mass history analysis, the measured cluster ions exhibited distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns, some of which contributed to new particle formation. Our study will improve the understanding of atmospheric ions and their role in high-altitude new particle formation.
Wiebke Scholz, Jiali Shen, Diego Aliaga, Cheng Wu, Samara Carbone, Isabel Moreno, Qiaozhi Zha, Wei Huang, Liine Heikkinen, Jean Luc Jaffrezo, Gaelle Uzu, Eva Partoll, Markus Leiminger, Fernando Velarde, Paolo Laj, Patrick Ginot, Paolo Artaxo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Markku Kulmala, Claudia Mohr, Marcos Andrade, Victoria Sinclair, Federico Bianchi, and Armin Hansel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 895–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), emitted from the ocean, is the most abundant biogenic sulfur emission into the atmosphere. OH radicals, among others, can oxidize DMS to sulfuric and methanesulfonic acid, which are relevant for aerosol formation. We quantified DMS and nearly all DMS oxidation products with novel mass spectrometric instruments for gas and particle phase at the high mountain station Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.) in the Bolivian Andes in free tropospheric air after long-range transport.
Johannes Mikkola, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marja Bister, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 821–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Local winds in four valleys located in the Nepal Himalayas are studied by means of high-resolution meteorological modelling. Well-defined daytime up-valley winds are simulated in all of the valleys with some variation in the flow depth and strength among the valleys and their parts. Parts of the valleys with a steep valley floor inclination (2–5°) are associated with weaker and shallower daytime up-valley winds compared with the parts that have nearly flat valley floors (< 1°).
Victoria Anne Sinclair, Jenna Ritvanen, Gabin Urbancic, Irene Erner, Yurii Batrak, Dmitri Moisseev, and Mona Kurppa
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3075–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the boundary-layer (BL) height and surface stability in southern Finland using radiosondes, a microwave radiometer and ERA5 reanalysis. Accurately quantifying the BL height is challenging, and the diagnosed BL height can depend strongly on the method used. Microwave radiometers provide reliable estimates of the BL height but only in unstable conditions. ERA5 captures the BL height well except under very stable conditions, which occur most commonly at night during the warm season.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Diego Aliaga, Victoria A. Sinclair, Marcos Andrade, Paulo Artaxo, Samara Carbone, Evgeny Kadantsev, Paolo Laj, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radovan Krejci, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16453-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the origin of air masses sampled at Mount Chacaltaya, Bolivia. Three-quarters of the measured air has not been influenced by the surface in the previous 4 d. However, it is rare that, at any given time, the sampled air has not been influenced at all by the surface, and often the sampled air has multiple origins. The influence of the surface is more prevalent during day than night. Furthermore, during the 6-month study, one-third of the air masses originated from Amazonia.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 37–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rare aircraft observations in the warm conveyor belt outflow associated with an extratropical cyclone are complemented with convection-permitting simulations. They reveal a complex tropopause structure with two jet stream cores, from which one is reinforced by bands of negative potential vorticity. They show that negative potential vorticity takes its origin in mid-level convection, which indirectly accelerates the jet stream and, thus, may influence the downstream large-scale circulation.
Nicolas Blanchard, Florian Pantillon, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, and Julien Delanoë
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 617–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the first results from the airborne RASTA observations measured during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX). Our combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis found three types of organized convection (frontal, banded and mid-level) in the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of the Stalactite cyclone. The results emphasize that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.
Victoria A. Sinclair, Mika Rantanen, Päivi Haapanala, Jouni Räisänen, and Heikki Järvinen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how mid-latitude cyclones are likely to change in the future. We used a state-of-the-art numerical model and performed a control and a
warmexperiment. The total number of cyclones did not change with warming and neither did the average strength, but there were more stronger and more weaker storms in the warm experiment. Precipitation associated with the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones increased by up to 50 % and occurred in a more poleward location in the warmer experiment.
Gabriella Szépszó, Victoria Sinclair, and Glenn Carver
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-39-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-39-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The OpenIFS programme of ECMWF maintains a version of the ECMWF forecast model for use in education and research at universities, national meteorological services and other institutes. Application of OpenIFS as a training tool is wide ranging. The OpenIFS user meetings and training events demonstrate advanced and easy-to-use graphical tools and training technologies, e.g. OpenIFS and Metview “virtual machines”. This paper shows the education activity in the OpenIFS programme with some examples.
Minttu Tuononen, Ewan J. O'Connor, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many applications require accurate forecasts of the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, such as solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. This also means that cloud must be correctly forecast. We investigated the skill of these forecasts over Helsinki, Finland, using cloud and solar radiation observations. We found that there were errors in the model radiation forecast even when the clouds were correctly forecast, which we attribute to incorrect representation of the cloud properties.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Florian Pantillon, Andreas Wieser, Bianca Adler, Ulrich Corsmeier, and Peter Knippertz
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) was conducted during the winter 2016–2017 in the Upper Rhine Valley to better understand the formation of wind gusts during the passage of storms. The key instrument of the field campaign was a scanning Doppler lidar, which provides accurate wind observations along its beam with high spatial and temporal resolutions and within a range of several km. Results from WASTEX should help improving the representation of wind gusts in weather and climate models.
Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
Mika Rantanen, Jouni Räisänen, Juha Lento, Oleg Stepanyuk, Olle Räty, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 827–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes new software OZO, which is a meteorological tool for both studying and research purposes. OZO can be used for investigating physical mechanisms affecting the development of extratropical cyclones. The software is an open-source tool and the distribution is supported by the authors. OZO will be used as a part of the author's PhD, in which the changes in cyclone dynamics due to warmer climate are studied.
Laura Riuttanen, Marja Bister, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Viju O. John, Anu-Maija Sundström, Miikka Dal Maso, Jouni Räisänen, Victoria A. Sinclair, Risto Makkonen, Filippo Xausa, Gerrit de Leeuw, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14331–14342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14331-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14331-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show observational evidence that aerosols increase upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) via changes in the microphysics of deep convection. Using remote sensing data over the ocean east of China in summer, we show that increased aerosol loads are associated with an UTH increase of 2.2 ± 1.5 in units of relative humidity. We show that humidification of aerosols or other meteorological covariation is very unlikely to be the cause for this result indicating relevance for the global climate.
H. Vuollekoski, M. Vogt, V. A. Sinclair, J. Duplissy, H. Järvinen, E.-M. Kyrö, R. Makkonen, T. Petäjä, N. L. Prisle, P. Räisänen, M. Sipilä, J. Ylhäisi, and M. Kulmala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 601–613, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-601-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-601-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The global potential for collecting usable water from dew on an
artificial collector sheet was investigated by utilising 34 years of
meteorological reanalysis data as input to a dew formation model. Continental dew formation was found to be frequent and common, but daily yields were
mostly below 0.1mm.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Cited articles
Anderson, D., Hodges, K. I., and Hoskins, B. J.: Sensitivity of Feature-Based Analysis Methods of Storm Tracks to the Form of Background Field Removal, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 565–573, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0565:SOFBAM>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Aragão, L. and Porcù, F.: Cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean region from a high-resolution perspective using ECMWF ERA5 dataset, Clim. Dynam., 58, 1293–1310, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05963-x, 2022. a
Baker, L.: Sting jets in severe northern European wind storms, Weather, 64, 143–148, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.397, 2009. a
Bechtold, P. and Bidlot, J.-R.: Parametrization of convective gusts, ECMWF Newsletter, 119, 15–18, https://doi.org/10.21957/kfr42kfp8c, 2009. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm Tracks and Climate Change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3815.1, 2006. a
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Keenlyside, N.: Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1, 2009. a, b
Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J.-R., Bunney, C., Cavaleri, L., Delli Passeri, L., Gomez, M., Lefèvre, J.-M., Paccagnella, T., Torrisi, L., Valentini, A., and Vocino, A.: Performance of different forecast systems in an exceptional storm in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 34–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.892, 2012. a
Besson, P., Fischer, L. J., Schemm, S., and Sprenger, M.: A global analysis of the dry-dynamic forcing during cyclone growth and propagation, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 991–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-991-2021, 2021. a
Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997–4020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. a
Binder, H., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in present-day and future climate simulations – Part 2: Role of potential vorticity production for cyclone intensification, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 19–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-19-2023, 2023. a
Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353910, 1997. a, b
Brennan, M. J., Knabb, R. D., Mainelli, M., and Kimberlain, T. B.: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2007, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 4061–4088, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2995.1, 2009. a
Browning, K. A.: Organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones, in: Extratropical Cyclones, The Erik Palmén Memorial Volume, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 129–154, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_8, 1990. a
Campins, J., Genovés, A., Picornell, M. A., and Jansà, A.: Climatology of Mediterranean cyclones using the ERA-40 dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1596–1614, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2183, 2011. a, b, c
Catto, J. L.: Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies, Rev. Geophys., 54, 486–520, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000519, 2016. a
Catto, J. L.: A New Method to Objectively Classify Extratropical Cyclones for Climate Studies: Testing in the Southwest Pacific Region, J. Climate, 31, 4683–4704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0746.1, 2018. a
Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?, J. Climate, 23, 1621–1635, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1, 2010. a, b
Champion, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Bengtsson, L. O., Keenlyside, N. S., and Esch, M.: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones, Tellus A, 63, 893–906, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00538.x, 2011. a
Chang, E. K.-M.: CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds, J. Climate, 31, 6527–6542, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1, 2018. a
Chen, G., Chen, Z., Zhou, F., Yu, X., Zhang, H., and Zhu, L.: A semisupervised deep learning framework for tropical cyclone intensity estimation, in: 2019 10th International Workshop on the Analysis of Multitemporal Remote Sensing Images Multi-Temp, IEEE, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1109/Multi-Temp.2019.8866970, 2019. a
Chen, T.-C., Collet, F., and Di Luca, A.: Evaluation of ERA5 precipitation and 10-m wind speed associated with extratropical cyclones using station data over North America, Int. J. Climatol., 44, 729–747, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8339, 2024. a, b
Coll-Hidalgo, P., Pérez-Alarcón, A., and Nieto, R.: Moisture Sources for the Precipitation of Tropical-like Cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea: A Case of Study, Atmosphere, 13, 1327, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081327, 2022. a
Colle, B. A., Zhang, Z., Lombardo, K. A., Chang, E., Liu, P., and Zhang, M.: Historical Evaluation and Future Prediction of Eastern North American and Western Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models during the Cool Season, J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00498.1, 2013. a
Cornér, J., Bouvier, C., Doiteau, B., Pantillon, F., and Sinclair, V. A.: Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity: Data and Python code, Zenodo [data set] and [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11384417, 2024. a, b
Cover, T. M. and Thomas, J. A.: Elements of information theory, Wiley-Interscience, Hoboken, N.J, 2nd edn., ISBN 0471748811, https://doi.org/10.1002/047174882X, 2006. a
Crameri, F.: Scientific colour maps, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8409685, 2023. a
Dacre, H. F. and Gray, S. L.: The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2491.1, 2009. a
Davis, C. A. and Emanuel, K. A.: Potential Vorticity Diagnostics of Cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1929–1953, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1929:PVDOC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
Deveson, A., Browning, K., and Hewson, T.: A classification of FASTEX cyclones using a height-attributable quasi-geostrophic vertical-motion diagnostic, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.1256/00359000260498806, 2002. a
Doiteau, B., Pantillon, F., Plu, M., Descamps, L., and Rieutord, T.: Systematic evaluation of the predictability of different Mediterranean cyclone categories, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1409-2024, 2024. a
Dolores-Tesillos, E., Teubler, F., and Pfahl, S.: Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 1: Cyclone intensity, potential vorticity anomalies, and horizontal wind speed, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022. a
Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Wild, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1351–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1351-2011, 2011. a
DWD: Wetter und Klima – Deutscher Wetterdienst – Gemeindewarnungen aktuell – Warnkriterien, https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/warnungen_aktuell/kriterien/warnkriterien.html?nn=605882 (last access: 7 May 2024), 2015. a
ECMWF: 201901 – Windstorm – Alfrida/Aapeli, https://confluence.ecmwf.int/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=129123779 (last access: 24 May 2024), 2021. a
Field, P. R. and Wood, R.: Precipitation and cloud structure in midlatitude cyclones, J. Climate, 20, 233–254, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3998.1, 2007. a, b
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Ermert, V., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 405–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-405-2009, 2009. a
Flaounas, E., Aragão, L., Bernini, L., Dafis, S., Doiteau, B., Flocas, H., Gray, S. L., Karwat, A., Kouroutzoglou, J., Lionello, P., Miglietta, M. M., Pantillon, F., Pasquero, C., Patlakas, P., Picornell, M. Á., Porcù, F., Priestley, M. D. K., Reale, M., Roberts, M. J., Saaroni, H., Sandler, D., Scoccimarro, E., Sprenger, M., and Ziv, B.: A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023. a, b, c
FMI: Tuulivaroituksia niin maalle kuin merelle, https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/tuulivaroitukset (last access: 7 May 2024), 2018. a
FMI: Merkittäviä myrskyjä ja rajuilmoja Suomessa, https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/merkittavia-myrskyja-suomessa (last access: 22 May 2024), 2024. a
Fox, A., Sherwin, R., and Ralston, F.: Lessons learnt at the Met Office from the Great Storm of 1987 – a comparison with recent strong wind events, Weather, 67, 268–273, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.1981, 2012. a
Gaffney, S. J., Robertson, A. W., Smyth, P., Camargo, S. J., and Ghil, M.: Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models, Clim. Dynam., 29, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z, 2007. a
Graf, M. A., Wernli, H., and Sprenger, M.: Objective classification of extratropical cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 1047–1061, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2989, 2017. a
Gramcianinov, C., Campos, R., de Camargo, R., Hodges, K., Guedes Soares, C., and da Silva Dias, P.: Analysis of Atlantic extratropical storm tracks characteristics in 41 years of ERA5 and CFSR/CFSv2 databases, Ocean Eng., 216, 108111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108111, 2020. a, b
Hartmann, D. L.: Global Physical Climatology, vol. 103, Elsevier, ISBN 978-0-12-328531-7, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-00030-0, 2015. a
Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Dacre, H. F.: How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053866, 2012. a, b, c, d
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hewson, T. D. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project, Tellus A, 67, 27128, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015. a
Hodges, K. I.: A General Method for Tracking Analysis and Its Application to Meteorological Data, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 2573–2586, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<2573:AGMFTA>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Hodges, K. I.: Feature Tracking on the Unit Sphere, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3458–3465, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3458:FTOTUS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Hodges, K. I.: Spherical Nonparametric Estimators Applied to the UGAMP Model Integration for AMIP, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 2914–2932, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2914:SNEATT>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Hodges, K. I.: Extension of Spherical Nonparametric Estimators to Nonisotropic Kernels: An Oceanographic Application, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 214–227, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0214:EOSNET>2.0.CO;2, 1999a. a
Hodges, K. I.: Adaptive Constraints for Feature Tracking, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 1362–1373, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1362:ACFFT>2.0.CO;2, 1999b. a
Hodges, K. I.: Confidence Intervals and Significance Tests for Spherical Data Derived from Feature Tracking, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1758–1777, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2299.1, 2008. a
Hodges, K. I., Lee, R. W., and Bengtsson, L.: A Comparison of Extratropical Cyclones in Recent Reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25, J. Climate, 24, 4888–4906, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4097.1, 2011. a
Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041–1061, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1041:NPOTNH>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a, b
Huo, Z., Zhang, D.-L., Gyakum, J., and Staniforth, A.: A Diagnostic Analysis of the Superstorm of March 1993, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 1740–1761, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<1740:ADAOTS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Hussain, M. M. and Mahmud, I.: pyMannKendall: a python package for non parametric Mann Kendall family of trend tests, Journal of Open Source Software, 4, 1556, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01556, 2019. a
Jeglum, M. E., Steenburgh, W. J., Lee, T. P., and Bosart, L. F.: Multi-reanalysis climatology of intermountain cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 4035–4053, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3432.1, 2010. a
Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Klawa, M.: Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 124016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124016, 2014. a
Karwat, A., Franzke, C. L. E., and Blender, R.: Long-Term Trends of Northern Hemispheric Winter Cyclones in the Extended ERA5 Reanalysis, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2022JD036952, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036952, 2022. a
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, 4th edn., ISBN 9780852641996, 1970. a
Klawa, M. and Ulbrich, U.: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 725–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003, 2003. a, b
Kouroutzoglou, J., Flocas, H. A., Hatzaki, M., Keay, K., Simmonds, I., and Mavroudis, A.: Identification of the development mechanisms of an explosive cyclone in the central Mediterranean with the aid of the MSG satellite images, in: Proc. Spie., edited by: Hadjimitsis, D. G., Themistocleous, K., Michaelides, S., and Papadavid, G., vol. 8795, 87951S, International Society for Optics and Photonics, SPIE, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2027584, 2013. a
Laarne, P., Zaidan, M. A., and Nieminen, T.: ennemi: Non-linear correlation detection with mutual information, Soft. X, 14, 100686, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.softx.2021.100686, 2021. a
Laarne, P., Amnell, E., Zaidan, M. A., Mikkonen, S., and Nieminen, T.: Exploring Non-Linear Dependencies in Atmospheric Data with Mutual Information, Atmosphere, 13, 1046, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071046, 2022. a
Laurila, T. K., Gregow, H., Cornér, J., and Sinclair, V. A.: Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021a. a, b
Laurila, T. K., Sinclair, V. A., and Gregow, H.: Climatology, variability, and trends in near-surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe during 1979–2018 based on ERA5, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 2253–2278, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6957, 2021b. a, b
Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., Fröhlich, L., and Pinto, J. G.: Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027663, 2007. a, b
Leckebusch, G. C., Renggli, D., and Ulbrich, U.: Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region, Meteorol. Z., 17, 575–587, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0323, 2008a. a, b, c
Leckebusch, G. C., Weimer, A., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Speth, P.: Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach, Meteorol. Z., 17, 67–82, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0266, 2008b. a
Li, M., Woollings, T., Hodges, K., and Masato, G.: Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8594–8601, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062186, 2014. a, b
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, I. F., and Trigo, R. M.: Klaus – an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France, Weather, 66, 330–334, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.755, 2011. a
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, R. M., Ludwig, P., Ordóñez, P., Yuen, D., and Trigo, I. F.: Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013. a
Lou, W.-p., Chen, H.-y., Qiu, X.-f., Tang, Q.-y., and Zheng, F.: Assessment of economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters based on PCA-BP, Nat. Hazards, 60, 819–829, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9881-x, 2012. a
Ludwig, P., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Gray, S. L.: The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1729–1741, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2253, 2014. a
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945. a
Mann, H. B. and Whitney, D. R.: On a Test of Whether one of Two Random Variables is Stochastically Larger than the Other, Ann. Math. Stat., 18, 50–60, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730491, 1947. a
McCallum, E.: The Burns' Day Storm, 25 January 1990, Weather, 45, 166–173, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1990.tb05607.x, 1990. a
Menna, M., Martellucci, R., Reale, M., Cossarini, G., Salon, S., Notarstefano, G., Mauri, E., Poulain, P.-M., Gallo, A., and Solidoro, C.: A case study of impacts of an extreme weather system on the Mediterranean Sea circulation features: Medicane Apollo (2021), Sci. Rep., 13, 3870, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29942-w, 2023. a
MetÉireann: Weather warnings explanation – Met Éireann – The Irish Meteorological Service, https://www.met.ie/weather-warnings (last access: 7 May 2024), 2024. a
Metheniti, K.: A case of Rapid Cyclogenesis over Ionian Sea on February 6th, 2012, https://user.eumetsat.int/s3/eup-strapi-media/pdf_il_12_02_06_6753093e86.pdf (last access: 24 May 2024), 2012. a
METNorway: Vind over land, https://www.met.no/vaer-og-klima/ekstremvaervarsler-og-andre-farevarsler/vaerfenomener-som-kan-gi-farevarsel-fra-met/vind-over-land (last access: 7 May 2024), 2021. a
Minola, L., Zhang, F., Azorin-Molina, C., Pirooz, A. S., Flay, R., Hersbach, H., and Chen, D.: Near-surface mean and gust wind speeds in ERA5 across Sweden: towards an improved gust parametrization, Clim. Dynam., 55, 887–907, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05302-6, 2020. a, b
Nagendra, S. S. and Khare, M.: Principal component analysis of urban traffic characteristics and meteorological data, Transport Res. D-Tr. E, 8, 285–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(03)00006-3, 2003. a
Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Yasuda, T., and Mase, H.: Global stochastic tropical cyclone model based on principal component analysis and cluster analysis, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53, 1547–1577, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-08.1, 2014. a
Neu, U., Akperov, M. G., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R., Caballero, R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H. F., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., et al.: IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 529–547, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1, 2013. a
Nielsen, J. W. and Dole, R. M.: A survey of extratropical cyclone characteristics during GALE, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 1156–1168, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1156:ASOECC>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Nissen, K. M., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., Renggli, D., Ulbrich, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1379–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1379-2010, 2010. a
Palutikof, J. P. and Skellern, A. R.: Storm Severity over Britain: a Report to Commercial Union General Insurance, Tech. rep., Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 1991. a
Pantillon, F., Davolio, S., Avolio, E., Calvo-Sancho, C., Carrió, D. S., Dafis, S., Gentile, E. S., Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J., Gray, S., Miglietta, M. M., Patlakas, P., Pytharoulis, I., Ricard, D., Ricchi, A., Sanchez, C., and Flaounas, E.: The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024. a
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel, O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J., Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.: Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830, http://jmlr.org/papers/v12/pedregosa11a.html (last access: 24 May 2024), 2011. a, b
Petterssen, S. and Smebye, S.: On the development of extratropical cyclones, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 97, 457–482, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709741407, 1971. a, b
Pfahl, S. and Sprenger, M.: On the relationship between extratropical cyclone precipitation and intensity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1752–1758, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068018, 2016. a
Pinto, J. G., Fröhlich, E. L., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 165–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-165-2007, 2007. a
Priestley, M. D. K. and Catto, J. L.: Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, 2022. a
Priestley, M. D., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L., Hodges, K. I., McDonald, R. E., and Lee, R. W.: An overview of the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6 historical simulations, J. Climate, 33, 6315–6343, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1, 2020. a, b, c
Raible, C. C., Della-Marta, P. M., Schwierz, C., Wernli, H., and Blender, R.: Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones: A Comparison of Detection and Tracking Methods and Different Reanalyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 880–897, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2143.1, 2008. a
Reboita, M. S., Crespo, N. M., Torres, J. A., Reale, M., Porfírio da Rocha, R., Giorgi, F., and Coppola, E.: Future changes in winter explosive cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere domains from the CORDEX-CORE ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 57, 3303–3322, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05867-w, 2021. a
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014. a, b, c, d
Rudeva, I. and Gulev, S. K.: Climatology of cyclone size characteristics and their changes during the cyclone life cycle, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 2568–2587, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3420.1, 2007. a
Sanders, F. and Gyakum, J. R.: Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “bomb”, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1589–1606, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1589:SDCOT>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Schüepp, M., Schiesser, H. H., Huntrieser, H., Scherrer, H. U., and Schmidtke, H.: The winterstorm “Vivian” of 27 February 1990: About the meteorological development, wind forces and damage situation in the forests of Switzerland, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 49, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00865533, 1994. a
Schultz, D. M., Keyser, D., and Bosart, L. F.: The effect of large-scale flow on low-level frontal structure and evolution in midlatitude cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1767–1791, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1767:TEOLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Seiler, C. and Zwiers, F. W.: How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3633–3644, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2791-y, 2016. a
Shahapure, K. R. and Nicholas, C.: Cluster Quality Analysis Using Silhouette Score, in: 2020 IEEE 7th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA), 747–748, https://doi.org/10.1109/DSAA49011.2020.00096, 2020. a
Sinclair, M. R.: Objective Identification of Cyclones and Their Circulation Intensity, and Climatology, Weather Forecast., 12, 595–612, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0595:OIOCAT>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Sinclair, V. A., Rantanen, M., Haapanala, P., Räisänen, J., and Järvinen, H.: The characteristics and structure of extra-tropical cyclones in a warmer climate, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-1-2020, 2020. a
Smart, D. J. and Browning, K. A.: Attribution of strong winds to a cold conveyor belt and sting jet, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2162, 2014. a
Statheropoulos, M., Vassiliadis, N., and Pappa, A.: Principal component and canonical correlation analysis for examining air pollution and meteorological data, Atmos. Environ., 32, 1087–1095, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00377-4, 1998. a
Stojanovic, M., Gonçalves, A., Sorí, R., Vázquez, M., Ramos, A. M., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., and Liberato, M. L. R.: Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal, Water, 13, 1476, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111476, 2021. a
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., Otsmann, M., Saaremäe, I., Kuik, J., and Merilain, M.: Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters, Boreal Environ. Res., 11, 143–159, 2006. a
Thorncroft, C., Hoskins, B., and McIntyre, M.: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 17–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711950903, 1993. a
Ulbrich, U., Fink, A., Klawa, M., and Pinto, J. G.: Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999, Weather, 56, 70–80, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06540.x, 2001. a, b
Vrac, M., Chédin, A., and Diday, E.: Clustering a Global Field of Atmospheric Profiles by Mixture Decomposition of Copulas, J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 22, 1445–1459, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH1795.1, 2005. a
Wang, J., Chen, L., and Li, S.: Characteristics of spring Mongolian cyclones in the recent 70 years: Background circulations and weather influences, Int. J. Climatol., 44, 328–343, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8342, 2024. a
Wang, X. L., Feng, Y., Chan, R., and Isaac, V.: Inter-comparison of extra-tropical cyclone activity in nine reanalysis datasets, Atmos. Res., 181, 133–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.06.010, 2016. a, b
Watanabe, T., Takenaka, H., and Nohara, D.: Framework of forecast verification of surface solar irradiance from a numerical weather prediction model using classification with a Gaussian mixture model, Earth Space Sci., 7, e2020EA001260, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001260, 2020. a
Weijenborg, C. and Spengler, T.: Diabatic Heating as a Pathway for Cyclone Clustering Encompassing the Extreme Storm Dagmar, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085777, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085777, 2020. a
Wernli, H., Dirren, S., Liniger, M. A., and Zillig, M.: Dynamical aspects of the life cycle of the winter storm “Lothar” (24–26 December 1999), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 405–429, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002321042036, 2002. a
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., and Hodges, K. I.: The Ability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones, J. Climate, 26, 5379–5396, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1, 2013a. a, b
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Sansom, P. G., and Stephenson, D. B.: A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models, J. Climate, 26, 5846–5862, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1, 2013b. a, b
Zillman, J. W. and Price, P. G.: On the thermal structure of mature Southern Ocean cyclones, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 20, 34–48, https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1572261549005376128 (last access: 24 May 2024), 1972. a
Zou, H. and Xue, L.: A selective overview of sparse principal component analysis, P. IEEE, 106, 1311–1320, https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2018.2846588, 2018. a
Zou, H., Hastie, T., and Tibshirani, R.: Sparse principal component analysis, J. Comput. Graph. Stat., 15, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.1198/106186006X113430, 2006. a
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint