Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2025

Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand

Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan J. Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker

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Short summary
In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.
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