Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2025

Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand

Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan J. Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker

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Barker, S. J., Eaton, A. R. V., Mastin, L. G., Wilson, C. J. N., Thompson, M. A., Wilson, T. M., Davis, C., and Renwick, J. A.: Modeling ash dispersal from future eruptions of Taupo supervolcano, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 20, 3456–3475, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GC008152, 2019. a
Bebbington, M. S., Stirlin, M., Cronin, S. J., Wang, T., and Jolly, G.: National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation, B. Volcanol., 80, 1–22, 2018. a
Brown, C., McDonald, G., Uma, S., Smith, N., Sadashiva, V., Buxton, R., Grace, E., Seville, E., and Daly, M.: From physical disruption to community impact: Modelling a Wellington Fault earthquake, Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, 23, 65–75, 2019a. a
Brown, C., Seville, E., Hatton, T., Stevenson, J., Smith, N., and Vargo, J.: Accounting for business adaptations in economic disruption models, J. Infrastruct. Syst., 25, 04019001, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000470, 2019b. a, b, c, d
Cardwell, R. J., McDonald, N. J., and McDonald, G. W.: Development of a Regional Social Accounting Framework for New Zealand, Tech. rep., Market Economics Ltd, Takapuna, 2023. a
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In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.
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