Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 17 Dec 2024
| 17 Dec 2024
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Elisabeth Schoepfer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Jörn Lauterjung
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Torsten Riedlinger
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Harald Spahn
independent consultant: Apen, 26689, Germany
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
Christian D. León
DIALOGIK gGmbH, Stuttgart, 70176, Germany
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez
Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, 80333, Germany
Sven Harig
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany
Michael Langbein
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Nils Brinckmann
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Günter Strunz
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Christian Geiß
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, 53115, Germany
Hannes Taubenböck
German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Wessling, 82234, Germany
Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, 97074, Germany
Related authors
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1163–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1163-2025, 2025
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Olaf Kranz, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Kristin Spröhnle, and Stefan Lang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B7, 891–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B7-891-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B7-891-2016, 2016
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1163–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1163-2025, 2025
Monika Friedemann, Martin Mühlbauer, Fabian Henkel, Tabea Wilke, and Torsten Riedlinger
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 14, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-14-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-14-2025, 2025
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilizing a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Ivan Kuznetsov, Benjamin Rabe, Alexey Androsov, Ying-Chih Fang, Mario Hoppmann, Alejandra Quintanilla-Zurita, Sven Harig, Sandra Tippenhauer, Kirstin Schulz, Volker Mohrholz, Ilker Fer, Vera Fofonova, and Markus Janout
Ocean Sci., 20, 759–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research introduces a tool for dynamically mapping the Arctic Ocean using data from the MOSAiC experiment. Incorporating extensive data into a model clarifies the ocean's structure and movement. Our findings on temperature, salinity, and currents reveal how water layers mix and identify areas of intense water movement. This enhances understanding of Arctic Ocean dynamics and supports climate impact studies. Our work is vital for comprehending this key region in global climate science.
Christian Werthmann, Marta Sapena, Marlene Kühnl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia, Tamara Breuninger, Moritz Gamperl, Bettina Menschik, Heike Schäfer, Sebastian Schröck, Lisa Seiler, Kurosch Thuro, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1843–1870, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1843-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1843-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning systems (EWSs) promise to decrease the vulnerability of self-constructed (informal) settlements. A living lab developed a partially functional prototype of an EWS for landslides in a Medellín neighborhood. The first findings indicate that technical aspects can be manageable, unlike social and political dynamics. A resilient EWS for informal settlements has to achieve sufficient social and technical redundancy to maintain basic functionality in a reduced-support scenario.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
L. Petry, T. Meiers, D. Reuschenberg, S. Mirzavand Borujeni, J. Arndt, L. Odenthal, T. Erbertseder, H. Taubenböck, I. Müller, E. Kalusche, B. Weber, J. Käflein, C. Mayer, G. Meinel, C. Gengenbach, and H. Herold
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., VIII-4-W1-2021, 89–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-VIII-4-W1-2021-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-VIII-4-W1-2021-89-2021, 2021
L. Petry, H. Herold, G. Meinel, T. Meiers, I. Müller, E. Kalusche, T. Erbertseder, H. Taubenböck, E. Zaunseder, V. Srinivasan, A. Osman, B. Weber, S. Jäger, C. Mayer, and C. Gengenbach
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIV-4-W2-2020, 37–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIV-4-W2-2020-37-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIV-4-W2-2020-37-2020, 2020
Ivan Kuznetsov, Alexey Androsov, Vera Fofonova, Sergey Danilov, Natalja Rakowsky, Sven Harig, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-103, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal regions play a significant role in global processes. Numerical models are one of the major instruments in understanding ocean dynamics. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate the representativeness of the simulations with the new FESOM-C model by comparing the results with observational data for the southeastern part of the North Sea. An equally important objective is to present the application of convergence analysis of solutions for grids of different spatial resolutions.
Alexey Androsov, Vera Fofonova, Ivan Kuznetsov, Sergey Danilov, Natalja Rakowsky, Sven Harig, Holger Brix, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1009–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a description of a coastal ocean circulation model designed to work on variable-resolution meshes made of triangular and quadrilateral cells. This hybrid mesh functionality allows for higher numerical performance and less dissipative solutions.
Olaf Kranz, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Kristin Spröhnle, and Stefan Lang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B7, 891–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B7-891-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B7-891-2016, 2016
N. Rakowsky, A. Androsov, A. Fuchs, S. Harig, A. Immerz, S. Danilov, W. Hiller, and J. Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1629–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Brief Communication: Bridging the data gap – enhancing the representation of global coastal flood protection
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Sensitive infrastructures and people with disabilities – Key issues when strengthening resilience in reconstruction
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Individual Flood Risk Adaptation in Germany: Exploring the Role of Different Types of Flooding
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to contrast subsidence and its damages. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques, to which site-specific assessment should always follow.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Cited articles
Aguilar, Z., Lazares, F., Alarcon, S., Quispe, S., Uriarte, R., and Calderon, D.: Actualización de la Microzonificación Sísmica de la ciudad de Lima, International Symposium for CISMID 25th Anniversary 17–18 August, 2012, Lima, Peru, 2013.
Allen, T. I. and Wald, D. J.: Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe, Open-File Report, Geological Survey (U. S.), https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071357, 2007.
Androsov, A., Harig, S., Zamora, N., Knauer, K., and Rakowsky, N.: Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024.
Aravena Pelizari, P., Geiß, C., Aguirre, P., Santa María, H., Merino Peña, Y., and Taubenböck, H.: Automated building characterization for seismic risk assessment using street-level imagery and deep learning, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 180, 370–386, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2021.07.004, 2021.
Aristizábal, C., Bard, P.-Y., Beauval, C., and Gómez, J. C.: Integration of Site Effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA): A Comparison between Two Fully Probabilistic Methods on the Euroseistest Site, Geosciences, 8, 285, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080285, 2018.
Bano, M. and Zowghi, D.: A Systematic Review on the Relationship between User Involvement and System Success, Inform. Software Tech., 58, 148–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2014.06.011, 2014.
Bano, M., Zowghi, D., and da Rimini, F.: User Satisfaction and System Success: An Empirical Exploration of User Involvement in Software Development, Empir. Softw. Eng., 22, 2339–2372, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10664-016-9465-1, 2017.
Barquet, K., Englund, M., Inga, K., André, K., and Segnestam, L.: Conceptualizing Multiple Hazards and Cascading Effects on Critical Infrastructures, Disasters, 48, e12591, https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12591, 2023.
Brinckmann, N., Pittore, M., Rüster, M., Proß, B., and Gomez-Zapata, J. C.: Put your models in the web – less painful, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-8671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8671, 2020.
Brinckmann, N., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., and Rüster, M.: DEUS: Damage-Exposure-Update-Service. V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.011, 2021.
Bruneau, M., Chang, S. E., Eguchi, R. T., Lee, G. C., O'Rourke, T. D., Reinhorn, A. M., Shinozuka, M., Tierney, K., Wallace, W. A., and von Winterfeldt, D.: A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities, Earthq. Spectra, 19, 733–752, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1623497, 2003.
Cardona, O. D., Ordaz, M. G., Reinoso, E., Yamín, L. E., and Barbat, A. H.: CAPRA – Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: International Initiative for Risk Management Effectiveness, in: 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 24–28 September 2012, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259598259 (last access: 5 December 2024), 2012.
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., and Deierlein, G.: Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru, Earthq. Spectra, 34, 1739–1761, https://doi.org/10.1193/080617EQS154M, 2018.
CENEPRED: Escenario de riesgo por sismo y tsunami para Lima Metropolitana y la provincia constitucional del Callao, https://dimse.cenepred.gob.pe/er/sismos/ESCENARIO-SISMO-TSUNAMI-LIMA-CALLAO.pdf (last access: 20 May 2024), 2017.
CERESIS: Catalogue for South America and the Caribbean prepared in the framework of GSHAP, Lima, Peru, http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/gshap/ceresis (last access: 6 December 2024), 1995.
Chiu, G. L. F. and Chock, G. Y. K.: Multihazard Performance Based Objective Design for Managing Natural Hazards Damage, IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 31, 159–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-6670(17)38490-2, 1998.
Ciurean, R., Gill, J., Reeves, H.J., O'Grady, S., Aldridge, T., Donald, K., Banks, V., Dankers, R., and Cole, S.: Review of multi-hazards research and risk assessments: British Geological Survey Open Report, OR/18/057, 86 pp., https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/524399/1/OR18057.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2018.
COES: Portal Web del COES, https://www.coes.org.pe/portal/ (last access: 20 May 2024), 2019.
Cremen, G., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards, Sci. Total Environ., 817, 152552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152552, 2022.
Crucitti, P., Latora, V., and Marchiori, M.: Model for cascading failures in complex networks, Phys. Rev. E, 69, 045104, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.69.045104, 2004.
Curt, C.: Multirisk: What trends in recent works? – A bibliometric analysis, Sci. Total Environ., 763, 142951, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142951, 2021.
De Angeli, S., Malamud, B. D., Rossi, L., Taylor, F. E., Trasforini, E., and Rudari, R.: A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 73, 102829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829, 2022.
De Pippo, T., Donadio, C., Pennetta, M., Petrosino, C., Terlizzi, F., and Valente, A.: Coastal hazard assessment and mapping in Northern Campania, Italy, Geomorphology, 97, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.08.015, 2008.
European Commission: DRMKC Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (last access: 20 May 2024), 2023.
European Commission: Ethics in Social Science and Humanities, https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ethics-in-social-science-and-humanities_he_en.pdf (last access: 20 May 2024), 2021.
EEA: Europe's changing climate hazards – an index-based interactive EEA report, https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-changing-climate-hazards-1 (last access: 20 May 2024), 2021.
Ferrario, E., Poulos, A., Castro, S., Llera, J. C. de la, and Lorca, A.: Predictive capacity of topological measures in evaluating seismic risk and resilience of electric power networks, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 217, 108040, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108040, 2022.
Fitz Simons, L. N.: Multi-Hazard Assessment of Localities and Sites, in: Protecting Historic Architecture and Museum Collections from Natural Disasters, edited by: Jones, B. G., Butterworth-Heinemann, 119–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-409-90035-4.50014-5, 1986.
FEMA: HAZUS® MH Risk Assessment and User Group Series, Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment, How-to Guide, 2004, https://www.fema.gov/pdf/plan/prevent/hazus/fema433.pdf (last access: 20 May 2024), 2004.
FEMA: HAZUS®MH MR4 Technical Manual, Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake model, Department of Homeland Security, Emergency Preparedness and Response Directorate FEMA, https://de.scribd.com/document/281758929/Hazus-Mr4-Earthquake-Tech-Manual (last access: 6 December 2024), 2003.
FIUBA: Estudio del evento ocurrido el 16 de junio de 2019 en instalaciones del SADI, Comportamiento de los agentes del Mercado en el evento, Informe final, Buenos Aires: Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento de Energía, 236 pp., https://www.enre.gov.ar/web/bibliotd.nsf/203df3042bad9c40032578f6004ed613/d50f985c66ad65cd032586d9004ccbd1/$FILE/INFORME_FIUBA-version2%20rev26.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2020.
Frigerio, S. and Westen, C. J.: RiskCity and WebRiskCity: Data Collection, Display, and Dissemination in a Multi-Risk Training Package, Cartogr. Geogr. Inf. Sc., 37, 119–135, https://doi.org/10.1559/152304010791232190, 2010.
Frimberger, T., Andrade, S. D., Weber, S., and Krautblatter, M.: Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 46, 680–700, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5056, 2021.
Fuchs, S., Frazier, T., and Siebeneck, L.: Physical Vulnerability: Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards, edited by: Fuchs, S. and Thaler, T., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316651148, 2018.
Gallina, V., Torresan, S., Critto, A., Sperotto, A., Glade, T., and Marcomini, A.: A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment, J. Environ. Manage., 168, 123–132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.011, 2016.
Geiß, C. and Taubenböck, H.: Remote sensing contributing to assess earthquake risk: from a literature review towards a roadmap, Nat. Hazards, 68, 7–48, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0322-2, 2013.
Geiß, C., Taubenböck, H., Tyagunov, S., Tisch, A., Post, J., and Lakes, T.: Assessment of Seismic Building Vulnerability from Space, Earthq. Spectra, 30, 1553–1583, https://doi.org/10.1193/121812EQS350M, 2014.
Geiß, C., Aravena Pelizari, P., Marconcini, M., Sengara, W., Edwards, M., Lakes, T., and Taubenböck, H.: Estimation of seismic building structural types using multi-sensor remote sensing and machine learning techniques, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 104, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2014.07.016, 2015.
Geiß, C., Thoma, M., Pittore, M., Wieland, M., Dech, S. W., and Taubenböck, H.: Multitask Active Learning for Characterization of Built Environments with Multisensor Earth Observation Data, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl., 10, 5583–5597, https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2017.2748339, 2017.
Geiß, C., Pelizari, P., Bauer, S., Schmitt, A., and Taubenböck, H.: Automatic Training Set Compilation With Multisource Geodata for DTM Generation From the TanDEM-X DSM, in: IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, vol. 17, 456–460, https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2019.2921600, 2019.
Geiß, C., Priesmeier, P., Aravena Pelizari, P., Soto Calderon, A. R., Schoepfer, E., Riedlinger, T., Villar Vega, M., Santa María, H., Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., So, E., Fekete, A., and Taubenböck, H.: Benefits of global earth observation missions for disaggregation of exposure data and earthquake loss modeling: evidence from Santiago de Chile, Nat. Hazards, 119, 779–804, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05672-6, 2022.
GEM: Report on the SARA Exposure and Vulnerability Workshop in Medellín, Report produced in the context of the GEM South America integrated Risk Assessment (SARA) project No. Version 1.0-May 2014, Colombia, 2014.
GEM Secretariat: South America Risk Assessment (SARA) Final Report 2015, Version 1.0., December 2015. SARA Project, https://cloud-storage.globalquakemodel.org/public/wix-new-website/pdf-collections-wix/publications/SARA%20Final%20Report_Exec%20Summary.pdf (last access: 20 May 2024), 2015.
Greiving, S., Fleischhauer, M., León, C. D., Schödl, L., Wachinger, G., Quintana Miralles, I. K., and Prado Larraín, B.: Participatory Assessment of Multi Risks in Urban Regions – The Case of Critical Infrastructures in Metropolitan Lima, Sustainability, 13, 2813, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052813, 2021.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards, 52, 680–722, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445, 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Anthropogenic processes, natural hazards, and interactions in a multi-hazard framework, Earth-Sci. Rev., 166, 246–269, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.01.002, 2017.
Gill, J. C., Malamud, B. D., Barillas, E. M., and Guerra Noriega, A.: Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020, 2020.
Goda, K. and De Risi, R.: Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards, Front. Built Environ., 8, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2022.1022736, 2023.
Gómez Zapata, J. C. and Pittore, M.: Probabilistic inter-scheme compatibility matrices for buildings. An application using existing vulnerability models for earthquakes and tsunami from synthetic datasets constructed using the AeDEs form through expert-based heuristics, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2022.003, 2022.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Parrado, C., Frimberger, T., Barragán-Ochoa, F., Brill, F., Büche, K., Krautblatter, M., Langbein, M., Pittore, M., Rosero-Velásquez, H., Schoepfer, E., Spahn, H., and Zapata-Tapia, C.: Community Perception and Communication of Volcanic Risk from the Cotopaxi Volcano in Latacunga, Ecuador, Sustainability, 13, 1714, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041714, 2021a.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Harig, S., Zafrir, R., Pittore, M., Cotton, F., and Babeyko, A.: Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021b.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Cotton, F., and Brinckmann, N.: Seismic ground motion fields for six deterministic earthquake scenarios (Mw 8.5-9.0) for Lima (Peru), GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.008, 2021c.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Shinde, S., Pittore, M., and Merino-Peña, Y.: Scripts to generate (1) attribute-based fuzzy scores for SARA and HAZUS building classes, and (2) probabilistic inter-scheme compatibility matrices. An application on the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) for seismic risk applications, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.002, 2021d.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Harig, S., and Pittore, M.: Customised focus maps and resultant CVT-based aggregation entities for Lima and Callao (Peru), V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.006 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2021e.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Brinckmann, N., and Pittore, M.: Residential building exposure and physical vulnerability models for ground-shaking and tsunami risk in Lima and Callao (Peru), V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.007, 2021f.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Cotton, F., Lilienkamp, H., Shinde, S., Aguirre, P., and Santa María, H.: Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models, B. Earthq. Eng., 20, 2401–2438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9, 2022a.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Pittore, M., and Merino, Y.: Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions, ISPRS Int. Geo-Inf., 11, 113, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11020113, 2022b.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Medina, S., and Lizarazo-Marriaga, J.: Creation of simplified state-dependent fragility functions through ad-hoc scaling factors to account for previous damage in a multi-hazard risk context. An application to flow-depth-based analytical tsunami fragility functions for the Pacific coast of South America, GFZ Data Service [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2022.002, 2022c.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Brinckmann, N., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Medina, S., Tarque, N., and Cotton, F.: Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023.
Gomillion, D. L.: The Co-Creation of Information Systems, PhD thesis, Florida State University, USA, http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-7396 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2013.
Gould, J. D. and Lewis, C.: Designing for usability: key principles and what designers think, Commun. ACM, 28, 300–311, https://doi.org/10.1145/3166.3170, 1985.
Granger, K., Jones, T., Leiba, M., and Scott, G.: Community risk in Cairns: A multi-hazard risk assessment, Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 14, 29–30, 1999.
Giuliani, G. and Peduzzi, P.: The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 53–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-53-2011, 2011.
Harig, S. and Rakowsky, N.: Tsunami flow depth in Lima/Callao (Peru) caused by six hypothetical simplified tsunami scenarios offshore Lima, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.010, 2021.
Harig, S., Chaeroni, Pranowo, W. S., and Behrens, J.: Tsunami simulations on several scales, Ocean Dynam., 58, 429–440, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-008-0162-5, 2008.
Harig, S., Immerz, A., Weniza, Griffin, J., Weber, B., Babeyko, A., Rakowsky, N., Hartanto, D., Nurokhim, A., Handayani, T., and Weber, R.: The Tsunami Scenario Database of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS): Evolution of the Coverage and the Involved Modeling Approaches, Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 1379–1401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02305-1, 2020.
Harig, S., Zamora, N., Androsov, A., and Knauer, K.: Tsunami flow depth in Lima/Callao caused by a historic event for varying bottom roughness simulated with the models Tsunami-HySEA and TsunAWI, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2024.001, 2024.
He, J. and King, W.: The Role of User Participation in Information Systems Development: Implications from a Meta-Analysis, J. Manage. Inform. Syst., 25, 301–331, https://doi.org/10.2753/MIS0742-1222250111, 2008.
Hernandez-Fajardo, I. and Dueñas-Osorio, L.: Probabilistic study of cascading failures in complex interdependent lifeline systems, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 111, 260–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2012.10.012, 2013.
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Šakić Trogrlić, R., Reiter, K., Ward, P. J., de Ruiter, M. C., Duncan, M. J., Torresan, S., Ciurean, R., Mysiak, J., Stuparu, D., and Gottardo, S.: Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management, iScience, 26, 106736, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106736, 2023.
Hossain, S., Spurway, K., Zwi, A. B., Huq, N. L., Mamun, R., Islam, R., Nowrin, I., Ether, S., Bonnitcha, J., Dahal, N., and Adams, A. M.: What is the impact of urbanisation on risk of, and vulnerability to, natural disasters? What are the effective approaches for reducing exposure of urban population to disaster risks? London: EPPI Centre, Social Science Research Unit, UCL Institute of Education, University College London, https://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/cms/Default.aspx?tabid=3707 (last access: 20 May 2024), 2017.
INDECI: Escenario sísmico para Lima Metropolitana y Callao: Sismo 8.8 Mw, CEPIG, https://portal.indeci.gob.pe/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/201711231521471-1.pdf, last access: 20 May 2024), 2017.
INDECI: Compendio estadístico del INDECI 2020. En la Preparación, Respuesta y Rehabilitiación de la GRD. Información estadística de emergencias y danos, period 2003 al 2019, https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/1689973/CAPITULO%20III.%20Estad%C3%ADstica%20Series%202003-2019.pdf?v=1614182435 (last access: 20 May 2024), 2020.
INEI: Censos Nacionales 2017, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI; Institute of Statistic and Informatics), Lima, Peru, 2017.
INEI: Sistema estadístico nacional: Perú Compendio Estadístico 2022, https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1872/COMPENDIO2022.html (last access: 20 May 2024), 2022.
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission: Tsunami Glossary, Fourth Edition, Paris, UNESCO, IOC Technical Series, 85, (English, French, Spanish, Arabic, Chinese), IOC/2008/TS/85 rev.4, https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000188226?posInSet=1&queryId=aeb846ae-edfb-4d66-a03a-385a5d5897f0 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2019.
Jarke, M., Bui, T., and Carroll, J.: Scenario Management: An Interdisciplinary Approach, Requir. Eng., 3, 155–173, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007660050002, 1998.
Jimenez, C., Moggiano, N., Mas, E., Adriano, B., Koshimura, S., Fujii, Y., and Yanagisawa, H.: Seismic Source of 1746 Callao Earthquake from Tsunami Numerical Modeling, Journal of Disaster Research, 8, 266–273, 2013.
Joint Research Centre (European Commission), Luoni, S., Antofie, T. E., Eklund, L. G., and Marín Ferrer, M.: Update of risk data hub software and data architecture: software solutions for disaster risk management, Publications Office of the European Union, LU, https://doi.org/10.2760/798003, 2020.
Kappes, M., Keiler, M., and Glade, T.: From Single- to Multi-Hazard Risk analyses: a concept addressing emerging challenges, Mountain risks: Bringing science to society, Proceedings of the international conference, Florence, 24–26 November 2010, 351–356, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260692785_From_Single-_to_Multi-Hazard_Risk_analyses_a_concept_addressing_emerging_challenges (last access: 6 December 2024), 2010.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat. Hazards, 64, 1925–1958, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2, 2012.
Karat, J.: Evolving the scope of user-centered design, Commun. ACM, 40, 33–38, https://doi.org/10.1145/256175.256181, 1997.
Kent, B., Beedle, M., van Bennekum, A., Cockburn, A., Cunningham, W., Fowler, M., Grenning, J., Highsmith, J., Hunt, A., Jeffries, R., Kern, J., Marick, B., Martin, R. C., Mellor, S., Schwaber, K., Sutherland, J., and Thomas, D.: Manifesto for Agile Software Development, Agile Alliance, https://agilemanifesto.org/ (last access: 20 May 2024), 2001.
Kling, R.: The Organizational Context of User-Centered Software Designs, MIS Quart., 1, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.2307/249021, 1977.
Komendantova, N., Mrzyglocki, R., Mignan, A., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Patt, A., and Fleming, K.: Multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support tools as a part of participatory risk governance: Feedback from civil protection stakeholders, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 8, 50–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.006, 2014.
Krieger, G., Moreira, A., Fiedler, H., Hajnsek, I., Werner, M., Younis, M., and Zink, M.: TanDEM-X: A Satellite Formation for High-Resolution SAR Interferometry, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 45, 3317–3341, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2007.900693, 2007.
Kropf, C. M., Ciullo, A., Otth, L., Meiler, S., Rana, A., Schmid, E., McCaughey, J. W., and Bresch, D. N.: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7177–7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022, 2022.
Kulikov, E. A., Rabinovich, A. B., and Thomson, R. E.: Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile, Nat. Hazards, 35, 185–209, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4809-3, 2005.
Kujala, S.: User involvement: A review of the benefits and challenges, Behav. Inform. Technol., 22, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1080/01449290301782, 2003.
Langbein, M., Boeck, M., and Mandery, N.: riesgos/dlr-riesgos-frontend: 2.0.6-peru, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8024669, 2023.
Leyton, F., Ruiz, S., and Sepúlveda, S. A.: Preliminary re-evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Chile: from Arica to Taitao Peninsula, Adv. Geosci., 22, 147–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-22-147-2009, 2009.
Li, M., Wang, J., and Sun, X.: Scenario-based risk framework selection and assessment model development for natural disasters: a case study of typhoon storm surges, Nat. Hazards, 80, 2037–2054, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2059-1, 2016.
Liu, Z., Nadim, F., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Mignan, A., Fleming, K., and Luna, B. Q.: A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 9, 5974, https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2015.1041989, 2015.
Liu, B., Siu, Y. L., and Mitchell, G.: Hazard interaction analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on hazard-forming environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-629-2016, 2016.
López-Saavedra, M. and Martí, J.: Reviewing the multi-hazard concept, Application to volcanic islands, Earth-Sci. Rev., 236, 104286, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104286, 2023.
Marin Ferrer, M., Antofie, T., Eklund, G., and Luoni, S.: The Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Center – Risk Data Hub: Vision Paper & roadmap, European Commission, Ispra, JRC119384, https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/doc/18150 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2019.
Marzocchi W., Mastellone M. L., Di Ruocco A., Novelli P., Romeo E., and Gasparini P.: Principles of multi-risk assessment: interaction amongst natural and man-induced risks (Project report), Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, https://doi.org/10.2777/30886, 2009.
Meaux, A. and Osofisan, W.: A review of context analysis tools for urban humanitarian response, https://www.iied.org/10797iied (last access: 20 May 2024), 2016.
Medina, S.: Zonificación de la vulnerabilidad física para edificaciones típicas en San Andrés de Tumaco, Costa Pacífica Colombiana, Master thesis in Civil Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental, Bogotá, Colombia, 245 pp., https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/77178 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2019.
Medina, S., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Estrada, M., Koshimura, S., Mas, E., and Adriano, B.: Tsunami analytical fragility curves for the Colombian Pacific coast: A reinforced concrete building example, Eng. Struct., 196, 109309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.109309, 2019.
Merscher, C.: Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Analysis and cascading Effects to the Power Network in Lima and Callao, Peru. Master's thesis, Technical University of Munich, Germany, 2020.
Mignan, A., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach, Nat. Hazards, 73, 1999–2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1178-4, 2014.
Montalva, G. A., Bastías, N., and Rodriguez-Marek, A.: Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for the Chilean Subduction Zone, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 901–911, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160221, 2017.
Munich RE: Relevant natural catastrophe loss events worldwide 2021, https://www.munichre.com/content/dam/munichre/mrwebsiteslaunches/natcat-2022/NatCat-Weltkarte-2021-1920x1080.pdf/_jcr_content/renditions/original./NatCat-Weltkarte-2021-1920x1080.pdf (last access: 20 May 2024), 2022.
Negulescu, C., Smai, F., Quique, R., Hohmann, A., Clain, U., Guidez, R., Tellez-Arenas, A., Quentin, A., and Grandjean, G.: VIGIRISKS platform, a web-tool for single and multi-hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 115, 593–618, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05567-6, 2023.
Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P. D., Esposti Ongaro, T., Hincks, T. K., Macedonio, G., Papale, P., Rosi, M., Santacroce, R., and Woo, G.: Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 397–415, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014, 2008.
Neri, M., Le Cozannet, G., Thierry, P., Bignami, C., and Ruch, J.: A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013, 2013.
Nievas, C. I., Bommer, J. J., Crowley, H., van Elk, J., Ntinalexis, M., and Sangirardi, M.: A database of damaging small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes, J Seismol, 24, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-019-09897-0, 2020.
Norman, D. A. and Draper, W. (Eds.): User-Centered System Design: New Perspectives on Human-Computer Interaction, University of California, San Diego, Taylor and Francis, 526 pp., https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.1201/9780367807320/user-centered-system-design-donald-norman (last access: 6 December 2024), 1986.
Oberkampf, W. L., DeLand, S. M., Rutherford, B. M., Diegert, K. V., and Alvin, K. F.: Error and uncertainty in modeling and simulation, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 75, 333–357, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00120-X, 2002.
OECD (Organistation for Economic Co-operation and Development): Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing A G20/OECD Methodological Framework, https://doi.org/10.1787/8f48d476-en, 2012.
Olarte, J., Aguilar, Z., Zavala, C., Martinez, A., and Gallardo, J.: Estimate of the probable maximum loss PML in Lima and Callao: Application to the Peruvian insurance industry, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228758296_ESTIMATE_OF_THE_PROBABLE_MAXIMUM_LOSS_PML_IN_LIMA_AND_CALLAO_APPLICATION_TO_THE_PERUVIAN_INSURANCE_INDUSTRY (last access: 6 December 2024), 2008.
OSINERGMIN: Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión en Energía y Minería, https://www.gob.pe/osinergmin (last access: 20 May 2024), 2019.
Ouyang, M., Dueñas-Osorio, L., and Min, X.: A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems, Struct. Saf., 36–37, 23–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.12.004, 2012.
Owolabi, T. A. and Sajjad, M.: A global outlook on multi-hazard risk analysis: A systematic and scientometric review, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 92, 103727, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103727, 2023.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Pagani, M., Johnson, K., and Garcia Pelaez, J.: Modelling subduction sources for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in: Characterization of Modern and Historical Seismic–Tsunamic Events, and Their Global–Societal Impacts, edited by: Dilek, Y., Ogawa, Y., and Okubo, Y., Geological Society of London, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP501-2019-120, 2021.
Pascale, S., Sdao, F., and Sole, A.: A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1575–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1575-2010, 2010.
Paulik, R., Horspool, N., Woods, R., Griffiths, N., Beale, T., Magill, C., Wild, A., Popovich, B., Walbran, G., and Garlick, R.: RiskScape: a flexible multi-hazard risk modelling engine, Nat. Hazards, 199, 1073–1090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05593-4, 2022.
Pesaresi, M., Ehrlich, D., Kemper, T., Siragusa, A., Florczyk, A., Freire, S., and Corbane, C.: Atlas of the human planet 2017, Global exposure to natural hazards, Joint Research Centre (European Commission), Luxembourg: Publictations Office of the European Union, 2017, https://doi.org/10.2760/19837, 2017.
Pitilakis, K., Crowley, H., and Kaynia, A. M. (Eds.): SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk: Buildings, Lifelines, Transportation Networks and Critical Facilities, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7872-6, 2014.
Pittore, M., Wieland, M., and Fleming, K.: Perspectives on global dynamic exposure modelling for geo-risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 86, 7–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2437-3, 2017.
Pittore, M., Gómez Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Weatherill, G., Babeyko, A., Harig, S., Mahdavi, A., Proß, B., Rosero Velasquez, H. F., Straub, D., Krautblatter, M., Frimberger, T., Langbein, M., Geiß, C., and Schoepfer, E.: Towards an integrated framework for distributed, modular multi-risk scenario assessment, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19097, 2020.
Pittore, M., Haas, M., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Rüster, M., and Proß, B.: Quakeledger: a web service to serve earthquake scenarios. V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.003, 2021a.
Pittore, M., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., and Rüster, M.: Assetmaster and Modelprop: web services to serve building exposure models and fragility functions for physical vulnerability to natural-hazards. V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.005, 2021b.
Plank, S., Nolde, M., Richter, R., Fischer, C., Martinis, S., Riedlinger, T., Schoepfer, E., and Klein, D.: Monitoring of the 2015 Villarrica Volcano Eruption by Means of DLR's Experimental TET-1 Satellite, Remote Sens., 10, 1379, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091379, 2018.
Rakowsky, N., Androsov, A., Fuchs, A., Harig, S., Immerz, A., Danilov, S., Hiller, W., and Schröter, J.: Operational tsunami modelling with TsunAWI – recent developments and applications, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1629–1642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1629-2013, 2013.
Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P., and Kelly, T. K.: Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies, IEEE Contr. Syst. Mag., 21, 11–25, https://doi.org/10.1109/37.969131, 2001.
Rodríguez, E. E., Portner, D. E., Beck, S. L., Rocha, M. P., Bianchi, M. B., Assumpção, M., Ruiz, M., Alvarado, P., Condori, C., and Lynner, C.: Mantle dynamics of the Andean Subduction Zone from continent-scale teleseismic S -wave tomography, Geophys. J. Int., 224, 1553–1571, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa536, 2020.
Rosero-Velásquez, H.: GitHub – riesgos/System_Reliability: WPS for performing the reliability of infrastructure networks, https://github.com/riesgos/System_Reliability (last access: 6 December 2024), 2020.
Rosero-Velásquez, H., Gómez Zapata, J. C. and Straub, D.: Comparative Assessment of Models of Cascading Failures in Power Networks Under Seismic Hazard, Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022), Dublin, Ireland, 28 August–1 September 2022, 1897–1904, https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5183-4_S03-03-221-cd, 2022.
Rosero-Velásquez, H. and Straub, D.: Selection of representative natural hazard scenarios for engineering systems, Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 51, 3680–3700, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3743, 2022.
Rosero-Velásquez, H.: Graph-based model for reliability analysis of infrastructure networks (1.0), mediaTUM, Technical University Munich [data set], https://doi.org/10.14459/2024MP1735865, 2024.
Šakić Trogrlić, R., Donovan, A., and Malamud, B. D.: Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022.
SARA: Research Topic 3 (RP3) – Modelling Subduction Zones in South America, https://sara.openquake.org/hazard_rt3/ (last access: 26 July 2023), 2016a.
SARA: Research Topic 4 (RT4) – The South American Earthquake Catalogue, https://sara.openquake.org/hazard_rt4 (last access: 26 July 2023), 2016b.
Schoepfer, E., Lauterjung, J., Kreibich, H., Rakowsky, N., Krautblatter, M., Straub, D., Stasch, C., Jäger, S., Knauer, K., Greiving, S., León, C., Spahn, H., and Riedlinger, T.: Research towards improved management of natural disasters including strategies to reduce cascading effects, in: EGU General Assembly 2018. Vienna, Austria, 8 April–13 Apr 2018, EGU2018-14801, https://elib.dlr.de/123317/1/EGU_2018_RIESGOS_poster-final.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2018.
Schoepfer, E., Juzam, L., Lauterjung, J., León, C. D., Riedlinger, T., Spahn, H., and Zambrano, A.: Policy brief – Multi-risk analysis: What would happen if…?, DLR electronic library, 21 pp., https://doi.org/10.15489/cwgicmtcja61, 2024.
Schorlemmer, D., Euchner, F., Kästli, P., and Saul, J.: QuakeML: status of the XML-based seismological data exchange format, Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 54, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4874, 2011.
Sedzro, K. S. A., Lamadrid, A. J., and Zuluaga, L. F.: Allocation of Resources Using a Microgrid Formation Approach for Resilient Electric Grids, IEEE T. Power Syst., 33, 2633–2643, https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2017.2746622, 2018.
Silva, V., Crowley, H., Pagani, M., Monelli, D., and Pinho, R.: Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model's open-source software for seismic risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 72, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0618-x, 2014.
Sköld Gustafsson, V., Hjerpe, M., and Strandberg, G.: Construction of a national natural hazard interaction framework: The case of Sweden, iScience, 26, 106501, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106501, 2023.
Strunz, G., Schöpfer, E., Geiß, C., Riedlinger, T., Lauterjung, J., and Spahn, H.: Multi-Risikobewertung in der Andenregion – Forschung, Entwicklung und praktische Anwendung, zfv – Zeitschrift für Geodäsie, Geoinformation und Landmanagement, zfv 1/2022, 63–70, https://doi.org/10.12902/zfv-0374-2021, 2022.
Suppasri, A., Mas, E., Charvet, I., Gunasekera, R., Imai, K., Fukutani, Y., Abe, Y., and Imamura, F.: Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, Nat. Hazards, 66, 319–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0487-8, 2013.
Sutcliffe, A.: Scenario-Based Requirements Engineering, IEEE T. Software Eng., 320–329, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRE.2003.1232776, 2003.
Tarvainen, T., Jarva, J., and Greiving, S.: Spatial pattern of hazards and hazard interactions in Europe, Geological Survey of Finnland, Special Paper 42, Espoo 2006, 83–91, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/238538264_Development_of_Natural_Hazard_maps_for_European_Regions (last access: 12 December 2024), 2006.
Taubenböck, H., Post, J., Roth, A., Zosseder, K., Strunz, G., and Dech, S.: A conceptual vulnerability and risk framework as outline to identify capabilities of remote sensing, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 409–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-409-2008, 2008.
Taubenböck, H., Goseberg, N., Setiadi, N., Lämmel, G., Moder, F., Oczipka, M., Klüpfel, H., Wahl, R., Schlurmann, T., Strunz, G., Birkmann, J., Nagel, K., Siegert, F., Lehmann, F., Dech, S., Gress, A., and Klein, R.: “Last-Mile” preparation for a potential disaster – Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1509-2009, 2009.
Taubenböck, H., Esch, T., Felbier, A., Wiesner, M., Roth, A., and Dech, S.: Monitoring urbanization in mega cities from space, Remote Sens. Environ., 117, 162–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.09.015, 2012.
Taubenböck, H., Goseberg, N., Lämmel, G., Setiadi, N., Schlurmann, T., Nagel, K., Siegert, F., Birkmann, J., Traub, K.-P., Dech, S., Keuck, V., Lehmann, F., Strunz, G., and Klüpfel, H.: Risk reduction at the “Last-Mile”: an attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia, Nat. Hazards, 65, 915–945, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0377-0, 2013.
Tavera, H., Agüero, C., Fernandez, E., and Rodriguez, S.: Catálogo Sísmico del Perú 1471 – 1982 Versión Revisada y Actualizada. Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Direccion de Sismologia, Lima, 2001, https://repositorio.igp.gob.pe/handle/20.500.12816/789 (last access: 20 May 2024), 2001.
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships, Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881, 2019.
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards: wind and precipitation extremes in Great Britain (1979–2019), Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022.
UCTE: Final Report of the Investigation Committee on the 28 September 2003 Blackout in Italy, UCTE Report, April 2004, https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/pre2015/publications/ce/otherreports/20040427_UCTE_IC_Final_report.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2004.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), ISBN 978-92-1-004180-5, https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2019 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2019.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022, Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), ISBN 9789212320281, https://www.undrr.org/media/79595/download?startDownload=20241206 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2022a.
UNDRR: Hazard definition and classification review. Technical Report, https://www.undrr.org/publication/hazard-definition-and-classification-review-technical-report (last access: 20 May 2024), 2022b.
UNDRR: GAR Special Report 2023: Mapping resilience for the sustainable development goals, Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), ISBN 9789210028301, http://www.undrr.org/gar2023sr (last access: 6 December 2024), 2023.
UNEP: GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Asia and the Pacific. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Online: http://www.unep.org/resources/report/geo-6-global-environment-outlook-regional-assessment-asia-and-pacific (last access: 20 May 2024), 2016.
UNEP: World Environment Situation Room and WESR CCA: Executive Briefing – November 2021, https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/39684 (last access: 20 May 2024), 2021.
UNEP: World Environment Situation Room (WESR), Online: https://wesr.unepgrid.ch (last access: 20 May 2024), 2023.
UNISDR: UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), https://www.undrr.org/publication/2009-unisdr-terminology-disaster-risk-reduction (last access: 20 May 2024), 2009.
UNISDR: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030, Geneva, UNISDR, https://www.undrr.org/media/16176/download?startDownload=20241206 (last access: 6 December 2024), 2015a.
UNISDR: Reflection paper: Disaster risk reduction and resilience in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, New York, UNHQ Liaison Office, 2015b.
United Nations: Paris Agreement, United Nations, New York, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement (last access: 6 December 2024), 2015a.
United Nations: Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1, 25 September 2015), United Nations, New York, NY, https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda (last access: 6 December 2024), 2015b.
United Nations: The New Urban Agenda. United Nations, New York, 29 pp., https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/generalassembly/docs/globalcompact/A_RES_71_256.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2017.
van de Lindt, J. W., Kruse, J., Cox, D. T., Gardoni, P., Lee, J. S., Padgett, J., McAllister, T. P., Barbosa, A., Cutler, H., Van Zandt, S., Rosenheim, N., Navarro, C. M., Sutley, E., and Hamideh, S.: The interdependent networked community resilience modeling environment (IN-CORE), Resilient Cities and Structures, 2, 57–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.004, 2023.
van Westen, C. J., Kappes, M. S., Luna, B. Q., Frigerio, S., Glade, T., and Malet, J.-P.: Medium-Scale Multi-hazard Risk Assessment of Gravitational Processes, in: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance, vol. 34, edited by: Van Asch, T., Corominas, J., Greiving, S., Malet, J.-P., and Sterlacchini, S., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 201–231, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6769-0_7, 2014a.
van Westen, C. J., Bakker, W. H., Andrejchenko, V., Zhang, K., Berlin, J., Cristal, I., and Olyazadeh, R.: RiskChanges: a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk, In: International Conference “Analysis and Management of Changing Risks for Natural Hazards”, Padua, Italy, 18–19 November 2014, http://www.changes-itn.eu/Portals/0/Content/2014/Final%20conference/abstracts/EO5_Abstract_vanWesten_et_al.pdf (last access: 6 December 2024), 2014b.
van Westen, C., Hazarika, M., Dahal, A., Kshetri, T., Shakya, A., and Nashrrullah, S.: The RiskChanges tool for multi-hazard risk-informed planning at local government level, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3026, 2022.
Villar-Vega, M., Silva, V., Crowley, H., Yepes, C., Tarque, N., Acevedo, A. B., Hube, M. A., Gustavo, C. D., and María, H. S.: Development of a Fragility Model for the Residential Building Stock in South America, Earthq. Spectra, 33, 581–604, https://doi.org/10.1193/010716EQS005M, 2017.
Wald, D. and Lin, K.-W.: USGS ShakeCast, USGS ShakeCast, Geological Survey (U. S.), 2007-3086, https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20073086, 2007.
Wald, D. J., Jaiswal, K. S., Marano, K. D., Bausch, D. B., and Hearne, M. G., 2010, PAGER—Rapid assessment of an earthquake's impact: U. S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2010–3036, 4 pp., https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3036/pdf/FS10-3036.pdf (last access: 12 December 2024), 2011.
Ward, P. J., Blauhut, V., Bloemendaal, N., Daniell, J. E., de Ruiter, M. C., Duncan, M. J., Emberson, R., Jenkins, S. F., Kirschbaum, D., Kunz, M., Mohr, S., Muis, S., Riddell, G. A., Schäfer, A., Stanley, T., Veldkamp, T. I. E., and Winsemius, H. C.: Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020.
Weatherill, G., Pittore, M., Haas, M., Brinckmann, N., Rüster, M., and Gomez-Zapata, J. C.: Shakyground: a web service to serve GMPE-based ground motion fields. V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.004, 2021.
Weatherill, G., Crowley, H., Roullé, A., Tourlière, B., Lemoine, A., Gracianne, C., Kotha, S. R., and Cotton, F.: Modelling site response at regional scale for the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), B. Earthq. Eng., 21, 665–714, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01526-5, 2023.
Wieland, M., Pittore, M., Parolai, S., Zschau, J., Moldobekov, B., and Begaliev, U.: Estimating building inventory for rapid seismic vulnerability assessment: Towards an integrated approach based on multi-source imaging, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 36, 70–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2012.01.003, 2012.
WMO: Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths, Online: https://www.unwater.org/news/weather-related-disasters-more-damage-fewer-deaths (last access: 20 May 2024), 2021.
World Bank Group: The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (OKR), https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ (last access: 6 December 2024), 2021.
WPS: OGC Web Processing Service 2.0 Interface Standard, Revised Date: 16 February 2018, http://docs.opengeospatial.org/is/14-065/14-065.html (last access: 20 May 2024), 2018.
Yepes-Estrada, C., Silva, V., Valcárcel, J., Acevedo, A. B., Tarque, N., Hube, M. A., Coronel, G., and María, H. S.: Modeling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment, Earthq. Spectra, 33, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.1193/101915eqs155dp, 2017.
Zschau, J.: Where are we with multihazards, multirisks assessment capacities?, in: Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, edited by: Poljansek, K., Marin Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T., and Clark, I., European Union, 98–115, https://doi.org/10.2788/688605, 2017.
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint