Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Research article
 | 
09 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 09 Dec 2024

Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment

Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello

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Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
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Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
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