Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 03 Dec 2024
| 03 Dec 2024
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Laura T. Massano
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, Italy
Giorgia Fosser
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, Italy
Marco Gaetani
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, Italy
Cécile Caillaud
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM, Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat, 31057 Toulouse, France
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Natalia Castillo Bautista, Marco Gaetani, Leonard F. Borchert, Benjamin Poschlod, Lukas Brunner, Jana Sillmann, and Mario L. V. Martina
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 2107–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2107-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-2107-2026, 2026
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When hot temperatures and drought occur together (compound events), they can cause harmful impacts on crops and society. Using six decades of climate data, we show that such compound events repeatedly occurred in three breadbaskets of the Northern Hemisphere. These events are linked to atmospheric circulation patterns that favor heat and dryness, which in turn interact to amplify the impact. Our study contributes to understand the drivers of these events to support climate impact assessment.
Hendrik Andersen, Benjamin Pohl, and Marco Gaetani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6210, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Fog is a regular water source in the Namib Desert, one of the driest places on Earth, but what controls its day-to-day changes is poorly understood. We linked long-term satellite and fog collector data to recurring weather patterns. Fog increases when an approaching weather system pushes moist air masses toward the coast, and decreases when high pressure extends over the region. The fog response depends on fog type and atmospheric state. Climate-driven shifts in weather patterns could alter fog.
Beatrice Biagi, Juan Cuesta, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Yugo Kanaya, Benjamin Pohl, Marco Gaetani, Chang-Feng Ou-Yang, Neng-Huei Lin, Matthias Beekmann, and Gaëlle Dufour
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5515, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Tropospheric ozone pollution is a major air quality concern across East and Southeast Asia. Our study identifies the most recurring springtime ozone patterns using reanalysis, observations and satellite measurements. High ozone conditions are associated with stagnant weather and biomass burning, while strong convection lowers ozone concentrations. El Niño increases the occurrence of high-ozone conditions and can strengthen the transport of ozone toward North America.
Nicolas Decoopman, Juliette Blanchet, Antoine Blanc, and Cécile Caillaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5833–5855, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5833-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5833-2026, 2026
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This study evaluates the ability of the convection-permitting regional climate model AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) to reproduce precipitation extremes and their trends, at daily and hourly scales in France, over 1959–2022. Overall, the results highlight the value of the explicit-convection model for extreme precipitation studies, while also highlighting its limitations for convective extremes.
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, and Alessandro Anav
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2881–2901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2881-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2881-2026, 2026
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Predicting how much water flows from rivers into the Mediterranean is challenging due to climate change and human impacts. We compared two hydrological models – a global river routing model and a fully coupled land surface–hydrology model – to assess their performance. The coupled model, especially after calibration, better reproduces river discharge and seasonal flow, helping improve flood and drought planning.
Paola Formenti, Chiara Giorio, Karine Desboeufs, Alexander Zherebker, Marco Gaetani, Clarissa Baldo, Gautier Landrot, Simona Montebello, Servanne Chevaillier, Sylvain Triquet, Guillaume Siour, Claudia Di Biagio, Francesco Battaglia, Jean-François Doussin, Anais Feron, Andreas Namwoonde, and Stuart John Piketh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16127–16145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16127-2025, 2025
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The elemental composition and solubility of several metals, including iron, at a coastal site in Namibia in August–September 2017, indicate that natural and anthropogenic dust had different solubility depending on mineralogy but mostly on the processing by fluoride ions from marine emissions, pointing to the complexity of atmospheric--oceanic interactions in this region of the world influenced by the Benguela current and significant aerosol load.
Nathalia Correa-Sánchez, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Giorgia Fosser, Eleonora Dallan, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 2551–2561, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-2551-2025, 2025
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We examined the power spectra of wind speed in three convection-permitting models in central Europe and found that these models have a better representation of wind variability characteristics than standard wind datasets like the New European Wind Atlas, due to different simulation approaches, providing more reliable extreme wind predictions.
Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas, Gianmaria Sannino, and Alessandro Anav
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 627–643, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-627-2025, 2025
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This study explores how sea surface energy influences both the atmosphere and ocean at various vertical levels during extreme Mediterranean cyclones. It focuses on cyclones' precipitation and wind speed response, as well as on ocean temperature variation. The findings highlight the regional coupled model's ability to coherently represent the thermodynamic and dynamic processes of the cyclones across both the atmosphere and the ocean.
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Alessandro Anav, Cenlin He, and Tzu-Shun Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1221-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates how different methods of simulating runoff impact river flow predictions globally. By comparing seven approaches within the Noah-Multi-parameterisation (Noah-MP) land surface model, we found significant differences in accuracy, with some methods underestimating or overestimating runoff. The results are crucial for improving water resource management and flood prediction. Our work highlights the need for precise modelling to better prepare for climate-related challenges.
Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7645–7677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, 2024
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Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Marco Gaetani, Kerstin Schepanski, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4265–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, 2024
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In the austral dry season, the atmospheric composition over southern Africa is dominated by biomass burning aerosols and terrigenous aerosols (so-called mineral dust). This study suggests that the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols needs to be taken into account to properly forecast dust emissions in Namibia.
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15507–15521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, 2023
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Using a numerical atmospheric model, we found that cooling sea surface temperatures along the southern coast of West Africa in July cause the “little dry season”. This effect reduces humidity and pollutant transport inland, potentially enhancing West Africa's synoptic and seasonal forecasting.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
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Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Patrick Chazette, Juan Cuesta, Stuart John Piketh, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5701–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5701-2022, 2022
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Rivers of smoke extend from tropical southern Africa towards the Indian Ocean during the winter fire season, controlled by the interaction of tropical easterly waves, and westerly waves at mid latitudes. During the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017, a river of smoke was directly observed over Namibia. In this paper, the evolution and atmospheric drivers of the river of smoke are described, and the role of a mid-latitude cut-off low in lifting the smoke to the upper troposphere is highlighted.
Marco Gaetani, Benjamin Pohl, Maria del Carmen Alvarez Castro, Cyrille Flamant, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16575–16591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16575-2021, 2021
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During the dry austral winter, biomass fires in tropical Africa emit large amounts of smoke in the atmosphere, with large impacts on climate and air quality. The study of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and smoke transport shows that midlatitude atmospheric disturbances may deflect the smoke from tropical Africa towards southern Africa. Understanding the distribution of the smoke in the region is crucial for climate modelling and air quality monitoring.
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Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and...
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