Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 06 Nov 2024
| 06 Nov 2024
Strategies for comparison of modern probabilistic seismic hazard models and insights from the Germany and France border region
Graeme Weatherill
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Fabrice Cotton
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Guillaume Daniel
Électricité de France, Aix-en-Provence, 13290, France
Irmela Zentner
Électricité de France, EDF R&D Lab Paris-Saclay, Paris-Saclay, 91120, France
Pablo Iturrieta
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Christian Bosse
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Related authors
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Dino Bindi, Riccardo Zaccarelli, Angelo Strollo, Domenico Di Giacomo, Andres Heinloo, Peter Evans, Fabrice Cotton, and Frederik Tilmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1733–1745, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The size of an earthquake is often described by a single number called the magnitude. Among the possible magnitude scales, the seismic moment (Mw) and the radiated energy (Me) scales are based on physical parameters describing the rupture process. Since these two magnitude scales provide complementary information that can be used for seismic hazard assessment and for seismic risk mitigation, we complement the Mw catalog disseminated by the GEOFON Data Centre with Me values.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Audrey Bonnelye, Pierre Dick, Marco Bohnhoff, Fabrice Cotton, Rüdiger Giese, Jan Henninges, Damien Jougnot, Grzegorz Kwiatek, and Stefan Lüth
Adv. Geosci., 58, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The overall objective of the CHENILLE project is to performed an in-situ experiment in the Underground Reaserch Laboratory of Tournemire (Southern France) consisting of hydraulic and thermal stimulation of a fault zone. This experiment is monitored with extensive geophysical means (passive seismic, active seismic, distributed fiber optics for temperature measurements) in order to unravel the physical processes taking place during the stimulation for a better charactization of fault zones.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Dynamic fragility of a slender rock pillar in a carbonate rock mass
Lesser Antilles seismotectonic zoning model for seismic hazard assessment
Consistency between a strain rate model and the ESHM20 earthquake rate forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard
A grid-level fixed-asset model developed for China from 1951 to 2020
An Updated, Homogeneous, and Declustered Earthquake Catalog for South Korea and Neighboring Regions
Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe
Insights into tectonic zonation models from the clustering analysis of seismicity in South and South-eastern Spain
Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zone
Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting
Analysis of borehole strain anomalies before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake based on a graph neural network
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Sedimentary record of historical seismicity in a small, southern Oregon lake
A 2700-year record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Acorn Woman Lakes, Oregon
Implementation of an interconnected fault system in PSHA, example on the Levant fault
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden
Correlation between seismic activity and acoustic emission on the basis of in situ monitoring
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
2021 Alaska earthquake: entropy approach to its precursors and aftershock regimes
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23
Estimating ground motion intensities using simulation-based estimates of local crustal seismic response
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Forearc crustal faults as tsunami sources in the upper plate of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone: the case study of the Morne Piton fault system
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Conversion relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration for historical shallow crustal earthquakes in Mexico
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Alaa Jbara and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2197–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Fragile geologic features test long-term seismic hazard models. We modeled a free-standing 42 m high rock pillar in Israel’s Negev Desert using a validated finite-element model based on aerial lidar, in situ rock data, and measured vibrations. Dynamic analysis shows an M 7 quake on the Dead Sea Transform (45 km) will not break it, but an M 6 quake on the Sinai–Negev Shear Zone (6–20 km) probably will. With a fragility age of 11.4 kyr, the pillar challenges the SNSZ’s (Sinai–Negev Shear Zone) ability to produce M 6 events.
Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1881–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge, and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, the inclusion of volcanic seismicity, and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.
Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesus Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1789–1809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1597–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution fixed-asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed-asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km × 1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that the fixed-asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached CNY 589.31 trillion in 2020.
Soumya Kanti Maiti and Byungmin Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A unified earthquake catalog for South Korea and its surroundings was developed, containing 63,298 events. Four declustering methods including Gardner-Knopoff, Reasenberg, Uhrhammer, and Marsan were compared to identify the mainshocks. The catalog offers a reliable database for seismic hazard assessments and seismotectonic studies. It fills gaps in previous studies, providing up-to-date catalog for accurate seismic risk assessment and future earthquake forecasting in the region.
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 991–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.
David Montiel-López, Antonella Peresan, Elisa Varini, and Sergio Molina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
South and southeastern Spain has the highest seismicity in the country, but inconsistent fault data limits its use in seismic hazard assessment. This study applies the Nearest-Neighbor algorithm and graph theory to analyse clustering patterns. Two regions (western and eastern) with higher and lower (respectively) clustering complexities are identified. The results suggest alternative seismic zonation models, which could improve seismic hazard assessment.
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 857–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The northwestern Yunnan region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 817–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 515–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
Chenyang Li, Changfeng Qin, Jie Zhang, Yu Duan, and Chengquan Chi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we advance the field of earthquake prediction by introducing a pre-seismic anomaly extraction method based on the structure of a graph WaveNet model, which reveals the temporal correlation and spatial correlation of the strain observation data from different boreholes prior to the occurrence of an earthquake event.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations spanning a few centuries at 12 cities in Romania. The full distributions of the hazard curves at the given locations were considered, and the testing was performed for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbance events from historical sediments from a small lake in Oregon were evaluated to determine if Cascadia megathrust earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Geochemical provenance data identify two likely Cascadia earthquakes, one from 1700 CE and the other from 1873 CE. A crustal earthquake deposit and flood deposits were also uniquely identified, suggesting that small Cascadia lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes and other disturbances.
Ann E. Morey and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4563–4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction-earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California–Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records, and an age–depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record, suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Sarah El Kadri, Celine Beauval, Marlene Brax, and Yann Klinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard evaluation is required for establishing earthquake-resistant building codes. Our aim is to improve the quantification of seismic hazard in the Levant by including our knowledge on how faults may be interconnected. We build an earthquake forecast by redistributing the energy stored in the fault system over all possible earthquake ruptures. This interconnected fault model leads to seismic hazard maps where hazard is as high on secondary fault branches as on main branches.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4199–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates make seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Recent expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use these new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods to find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north. The north has the highest hazard in Sweden, with estimated mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.06 g for a 475-year return period.
Zhiwen Zhu, Zihan Jiang, Federico Accornero, and Alberto Carpinteri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4133–4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Since April 2023, an in situ experiment in a granite tunnel in Southeast China has been revealing strong correlations between acoustic emission signals and seismic activity. Acoustic emission bursts precede seismic events by approximately 17 h, with a notable decline in the b value and natural-time variance κ1. This research provides new evidence that acoustic emission can serve as an effective earthquake precursor.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stéphane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3895–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along the subduction zone. This study shows how an entropy approach can help us understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Cited articles
Abbott, E., Horspool, N., Gerstenberger, M., Huso, R., Van Houtte, C., McVerry, G., and Canessa, S.: Challenges and opportunities in New Zealand seismic hazard and risk modeling using OpenQuake, Earthq. Spectra, 36, 210–225, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020966338, 2020.
Abrahamson, N. A., Silva, W. J., and Kamai, R.: Summary of the ASK14 Ground Motion Relation for Active Crustal Regions, Earthq. Spectra, 30, 1025–1055, https://doi.org/10.1193/070913EQS198M, 2014.
Ake, J., Munson, C., Stamatakos, J., Juckett, M., Coppersmith, K., and Bommer, J.: Updated Implementation Guidelines for SSHAC Hazard Studies, Report No. NUREG-2213, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington D. C., 145 pp., https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr2213/index.html (last access: October 2024), 2018.
Akkar, S., Sandıkkaya, M. A., and Bommer, J. J.: Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 12, 359–387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2014a.
Akkar, S., Sandíkkaya, M. A., Senyurt, M., Azari Sisi, A., Ay, B. Ö., Traversa, P., Douglas, J., Cotton, F., Luzi, L., Hernandez, B., and Godey, S.: Reference database for seismic ground-motion in Europe (RESORCE), Bull. Earthquake Eng., 12, 311–339, 2014b.
Akkar, S., Azak, T., Çan, T., Çeken, U., Demircioğlu Tümsa, M. B., Duman, T. Y., Erdik, M., Ergintav, S., Kadirioğlu, F. T., Kalafat, D., Kale, Ö., Kartal, R. F., Kekovalı, K., Kılıç, T., Özalp, S., Altuncu Poyraz, S., Şeşetyan, K., Tekin, S., Yakut, A., Yılmaz, M. T., Yücemen, M. S., and Zülfikar, Ö.: Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 16, 3197–3228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0349-1, 2018.
Aldama-Bustos, G., Tromans, I. J., Strasser, F., Garrard, G., Green, G., Rivers, L., Douglas, J., Musson, R. M. W., Hunt, S., Lessi-Cheimariou, A., Daví, M., and Robertson, C.: A streamlined approach for the seismic hazard assessment of a new nuclear power plant in the UK, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 17, 37–54, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0442-5, 2019.
Allen, T. I., Halchuk, S., Adams, J., and Weatherill, G. A.: Forensic PSHA: Benchmarking Canada's Fifth Generation seismic hazard model using the OpenQuake-engine, Earthq. Spectra, 36(1_suppl), 91–111, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019900779, 2020
Ameri, G.: Empirical Ground Motion Model Adapted to the French Context, Seismic Ground Motion Assessment (SIGMA) Deliverable No. SIGMA-2014-D2-131, 2014.
Ameri, G., Drouet, S., Traversa, P., Bindi, D., and Cotton, F.: Toward an empirical ground motion prediction equation for France: accounting for regional differences in the source stress parameter, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 15, 4681–4717, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0171-1, 2017.
Assatourians, K. and Atkinson, G. M.: EqHaz: An Open-Source Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Code Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation Approach, Seismol. Res. Lett., 84, 516–524, 2014.
Basili, R., Danciu, L., Beauval, C., Sesetyan, K., Vilanova, S. P., Adamia, S., Arroucau, P., Atanackov, J., Baize, S., Canora, C., Caputo, R., Carafa, M. M. C., Cushing, E. M., Custódio, S., Demircioglu Tumsa, M. B., Duarte, J. C., Ganas, A., García-Mayordomo, J., Gómez de la Peña, L., Gràcia, E., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F. E., Martín-Banda, R., Martínez-Loriente, S., Neres, M., Perea, H., Šket Motnikar, B., Tiberti, M. M., Tsereteli, N., Tsironi, V., Vallone, R., Vanneste, K., Zupančič, P., and Giardini, D.: The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, in review, 2023.
Bindi, D., Massa, M., Luzi, L., Ameri, G., Pacor, F., Puglia, R., and Augliera, P.: Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 12, 391–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9525-5, 2014.
Bindi, D., Cotton, F., Kotha, S. R., Bosse, C., Stromeyer, D., and Grünthal, G.: Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas, J Seismol, 21, 1201–1218, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9661-5, 2017.
Bommer, J. J., Coppersmith, K. J., Coppersmith, R. T., Hanson, K. L., Mangongolo, A., Neveling, J., Rathje, E. M., Rodriguez-Marek, A., Scherbaum, F., Shelembe, R., Stafford, P. J., and Strasser, F. O.: A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa, Earthq. Spectra, 31, 661–698, https://doi.org/10.1193/060913EQS145M, 2015.
Burkhard, M. and Grünthal, G.: Seismic source zone characterization for the seismic hazard assessment project PEGASOSby the Expert Group 2 (EG 1b), Swiss J. Geosci., 102, 149–188, 2009
Cauzzi, C., Faccioli, E., Vanini, M., and Bianchini, A.: Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 13, 1587–1612, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y, 2015.
CEN: Eurocode 8: Design of structures for earthquake resistance – Part 1: General rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings, European Committee for Standardization (Comité Européen de Normalistion), 2004.
Crowley, H., Dabbeek, J., Despotaki, V., Rodrigues, D., Martins, L., Silva, V., Romão, X., Pereira, N., Weatherill, G., and Danciu, L.: European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), EFEHR Technical Report 002 V1.0.1, https://doi.org/10.7414/EUC-EFEHR-TR002-ESRM20, 2021.
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, 1968.
Derras, B., Bard, P. Y., and Cotton, F.: Towards fully data driven ground-motion prediction models for Europe, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 12, 495–516, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9481-0, 2014.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., Bard, P-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview, EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.12686/a15, 2021.
Drouet, S. and Cotton, F.: Regional Stochastic GMPEs in Low-Seismicity Areas: Scaling and Aleatory Variability Analysis – Application to the French Alps, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 1883–1902, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140240, 2015.
Drouet, S., Ameri, G., Le Dortz, K., Secanell, R., and Senfaute, G.: A probabilistic seismic hazard map for the metropolitan France, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 18, 1865–1898, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00790-7, 2020.
Ebel, J. E. and Kafka, A. L.: A Monte Carlo Approach to Seismic Hazard Analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 854–866, 1999.
E DIN EN 1998-1/NA:2018-10: Nationaler Anhang – national festgelegte Parameter – Teil 1/NA: Eurocode 8: Auslegung von Bauwerken gegen Erdbeben – Grundlagen, Erdbebenwirkungen und Regeln für Hochbau, Beuth-Verlag, Berlin, Ausgabe Oktober 2018, 2018.
EPRI: Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities, U.S. DOE and U.S. NRC Technical Report, Palo Alto, CA, https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr2115/v1/index.html (last access: June 2020), 2012.
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., and Cornell, C. A.: OpenSHA: A Developing Community-modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis, Seismol. Res. Lett., 74, 406–419, 2003.
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T. E., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., and Zeng. Y.: Long-term time-dependent probabilities for the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3), B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 511–543, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140093, 2015.
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hatem, A. E., Powers, P. M., Pollitz, F. F., Llenos, A. L., Zeng, Y., Johnson, K. M., Shaw, B. E., McPhillips, D., Thompson Jobe, J., Shumway, A. M., Michael, A. J., Shen, Z.-K., Evans, E. L., Hearn, E. H., Mueller, C. S., Frankel, A. D., Petersen, M. D., DuRoss, C., Briggs, R. W., Page, M. T., Rubinstein, J. L., and Herrick, J. A.: The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time-Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 114, 523–571,https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230120, 2024.
Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Allen, T., Pagani, M., Adams, J., Danciu, L., Field, E. H., Fujiwara, H., Luco, N., Ma, K. -F., Meletti, C., and Petersen, M. D.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scales: State of the art and future challenges, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000653, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000653, 2020
GEOTER: Probabilistic seismic hazard for the French metropolitan territory, Fugro Document No GTR-EDF-0517-1603, Électricité de France EDF, Aix-en-Provence, France, 2017.
Giardini, D., Wiemer, S., Fäh, D., and Deichmanm, N.: Seismic Hazard Assessment of Switzerland, 2004, Technical Report, Swiss Seismological Service, 1–95, 2004.
Grünthal, G.: The updated earthquake catalogue for the German Democratic Republic and adjacent areas – statistical data characteristics and conclusions for hazard assessment, 3rd International Symposium on the Analysis of Seismicity and Seismic Risk, Liblice/Czechoslovakia, 17–22 June 1985, Proceedings Vol. 1, 19–25, 1985.
Grünthal, G. and Wahlström, R.: The European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) for the last millennium, J. Seismol., 16, 535–570, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9302-y, 2012.
Grünthal, G., Stromeyer, D., Bosse, C., Cotton, F., and Bindi, D.: The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany – version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 16, 4339–4395, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0315-y, 2018.
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F.: Frequency of Earthquakes in California, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188, 1944.
Hakimhashemi, A. H. and Grünthal, G.: A Statistical Method for Estimating Catalog Completeness Applicable to Long-Term Nonstationary Seismicity Data, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 2530–2546, 2012.
Hale, C., Abrahamson, N., and Bozorgnia, Y.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Code Verification, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, https://doi.org/10.55461/KJZH2652, 2018.
Helmstetter, A. and Werner, M. J.: Adaptive Spatiotemporal Smoothing of Seismicity for Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts in California, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 2518–2529, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120062, 2012.
Johnston, A. C., Coppersmith, K. J., Kanter, L. R., and Cornell, C. A.: The Earthquakes of Stable Continental Regions, Electric Power Research Institute, 1994.
Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN): Actualización de mapas de peligrosidad sísmica de España, Centro Nacional de Información Geográfica, Technical Report, 1–272, https://doi.org/10.7419/162.05.2017, 2017
Jomard, H., Cushing, E. M., Palumbo, L., Baize, S., David, C., and Chartier, T.: Transposing an active fault database into a seismic hazard fault model for nuclear facilities – Part 1: Building a database of potentially active faults (BDFA) for metropolitan France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1573–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1573-2017, 2017.
Kagan, Y. Y.: Seismic moment distribution revisited: 1. Statistical results, Geophys. J. Int., 148, 521–542, 2002.
Kotha, S. R., Weatherill, G., Bindi, D., and Cotton, F.: A regionally-adaptable ground-motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 18, 4091–4125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00869-1, 2020.
Lanzano, G., Sgobba, S., Luzi, L., Puglia, R., Pacor, F., Felicetta, C., D'Amico, M., Cotton, F., and Bindi, D.: The pan-European Engineering Strong Motion (ESM) flatfile: compilation criteria and data statistics, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 17, 561–582, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0480-z, 2019.
Manchuel, K., Traversa, P., Baumont, D., Cara, M., Nayman, E., and Durouchoux, C.: The French seismic CATalogue (FCAT-17), Bull. Earthquake Eng., 16, 2227–2251, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0236-1, 2018.
McGuire, R.: FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis, USGS Open-File Report, 76–67, 1976.
Meletti, C., D'Amico, V., and Martinelli, F.: Homogenous determination of maximum magnitude, Seismic Hazard Harmonisation in Europe (SHARE) Deliverable 3.3, 1–23, http://www.share-eu.org/node/52.html (last access: October 2024), 2013.
Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'Amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., and Group, M. W.: The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19), Ann. Geophys., 64, 6, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8579, 2021.
Miller, A. C. and Rice, T. R.: Discrete Approximations of Probability Distributions, Manage. Sci., 29, 352–362, 1983.
Monahan, J. F.: Numerical Methods of Statistics, Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-52179168-5, 2001.
Mosca, I., Sargeant, S., Baptie, B., Musson, R. M. W., and Pharaoh, T. C.: The 2020 national seismic hazard model for the United Kingdom, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 20, 633–675, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01281-z, 2022.
Musson, R. M. W.: The use of Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard assessment in the UK, Ann. Geofis., 43, 1–9, 2000.
Nandan, S., Danciu, L., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: Background smoothed seismicity model underlying ESHM20, Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Bucharest, Romania, ISBN 978-973-100-533-1, 2022.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Pagani, M., Garcia-Pelaez, J., Gee, R., Johnson, K., Poggi, V., Silva, V., Simionato, M., Styron, R., Viganò, D., Danciu, L., Monelli, D., and Weatherill, G.: The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component, Earthq. Spectra, 36, 226–251, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020931866, 2020.
Pecker, A., Faccioli, E., Gurpinar, A., Martin, C., and Renault, P.: An Overview of the SIGMA Research Project, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-58154-5, 2017.
Rollins, C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Rastin, S. J., Christophersen, A., Thingbaijam, K. K. S., Van Dissen, R. J., Graham, K., DiCaprio, C., and Fraser, J.: The Magnitude–Frequency Distributions of Earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand and on Adjoining Subduction Zones, Using a New Integrated Earthquake Catalog, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 114, 150–181, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230177, 2024.
Rovida, A., Antonucci, A., and Locati, M.: The European Preinstrumental Earthquake Catalogue EPICA, the 1000–1899 catalogue for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5213–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5213-2022, 2022.
Scherbaum, F., Kuehn, N. M., Ohrnberger, M., and Koehler, A.: Exploring the Proximity of Ground-Motion Models Using High-Dimensional Visualization Techniques, Earthq. Spectra, 26, 1117–1138, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3478697, 2010.
Stromeyer, D. and Grünthal, G.: Capturing the Uncertainty of Seismic Activity Rates in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessments, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 580–589, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140185, 2015.
Stucchi, M., Meletti, C., Montaldo, V., Crowley, H., Calvi, G. M., and Boschi, E.: Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003–2009) for the Italian Building Code, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100130, 2011
Thomas, P., Wong, I., and Abrahamson, N.: Verification of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Computer Programs, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, https://peer.berkeley.edu/publications/2010-106 (last access: October 2024), 2010.
Tromans, I. J., Aldama-Bustos, G., Douglas, J., Lessi-Cheimariou, A., Hunt, S., Daví, M., Musson, R. M. W., Garrard, G., Strasser, F. O., and Robertson, C.: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 17, 1–36, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6, 2019.
U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission: Practical Implementation Guidelines for SSHAC Level 3 and 4 Hazard Studies. NUREG-2117, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report, Washington, D. C., https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr2117/index.html (last access: October 2024), 2012.
Vanneste, K., Camelbeeck, T., and Verbeeck, K.: A Model of Composite Seismic Sources for the Lower Rhine Graben, Northwest Europe, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 984–1007, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120037, 2013.
Vaserstein, L. N.: Markov processes over denumerable products of spaces, describing large systems of automats, Problemy Peredaci Informacii, 5, 64–72, 1969
Weatherill, G.: Data and Code for the Implementation of the Drouet et al. (2024) PSHA Model for Metropolitan France into OpenQuake, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13991952, 2022.
Weatherill, G. and Burton, P. W.: An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation, Tectonophysics, 492, 253–278, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2010.06.022, 2010.
Weatherill, G., Kotha, S. R., and Cotton, F.: A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the 2020 European seismic hazard model, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 18, 5087–5117, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00899-9, 2020.
Weatherill, G., Cotton, F., Daniel, G., and Zentner, I.: Implementation of the Drouet et al. (2020) PSHA for France in OpenQuake: Comparisons and Modelling Issues, EDF, https://www.sigma-2.net/pages/deliverables/deliverables.html (last access: October 2024), 2022.
Weichert, D. H.: Estimation of the Earthquake Recurrence Parameters for Unequal Observation Periods for Different Magnitude, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70, 1337–1346, 1980.
Wiemer, S., Danciu, L., Edwards, B., Marti, M., Fäh, D., Hiemer, S., Wössner, J., Cauzzi, C., Kästli, P., and Kremer, K.: Seismic Hazard Model (2015) for Switzerlan (SUIhaz2015), Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, https://doi.org/10.12686/a2, 2016.
Wössner, J., Laurentiu, D., Giardini, D., Crowley, H., Cotton, F., Grünthal, G., Valensise, G., Arvidsson, R., Basili, R., Demircioglu, M. B., Hiemer, S., Meletti, C., Musson, R. W., Rovida, A. N., Sesetyan, K., Stucchi, M., and The SHARE Consortium: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results, Bull. Earthquake Eng., 13, 3553–3596, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1, 2015.
Woo, G.: Kernel Estimation Methods for Seismic Hazard Area Source Modelling, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, 353–362, 1996.
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint