Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia

Brown, Andrew; Dowdy, Andrew; Lane, Todd P.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 9

Research article

|

24 Sep 2024

Research article |

| 24 Sep 2024

Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia

Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024-supplement

Data sets

Simulated severe convective wind events and environments from the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia (BARPA) Andrew Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10521068

Model code and software

andrewbrown31/BARPA: Release for paper publication (v1.0) A. Brown https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13800857

wrf-python (Version 1.3.2) W. Ladwig https://doi.org/10.5065/D6W094P1

pangeo-data/xESMF: v0.8.2 J. Zhuang et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8356796

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Short summary

A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.