Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024
Research article
 | 
24 Sep 2024
Research article |  | 24 Sep 2024

Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia

Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane

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Cited articles

Allen, J. T.: Climate Change and Severe Thunderstorms, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, vol. 1, Oxford University Press, 65 pp., ISBN 9780190228620, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.62, 2018. a
Allen, J. T. and Karoly, D. J.: A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979–2011: Inter-annual variability and ENSO influence, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 81–97, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3667, 2014. a, b
Allen, J. T., Karoly, D. J., and Walsh, K. J.: Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments, J. Climate, 27, 3848–3868, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00426.1, 2014. a
Ashley, W. S., Haberlie, A. M., and Gensini, V. A.: The Future of Supercells in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E1–E21, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0027.1, 2023. a, b
Atkins, N. T. and Wakimoto, R. M.: Wet Microburst Activity over the Southeastern United States: Implications for Forecasting, Weather Forecast., 6, 470–482, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0470:WMAOTS>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
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