Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
23 Aug 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 23 Aug 2024
| 23 Aug 2024
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Marie-Luise Zenker
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Philip Bubeck
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Annegret H. Thieken
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The disaster impacts were largely associated with a fast urban expansion over the last three decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Also, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Jonas Laudan, Viktor Rözer, Tobias Sieg, Kristin Vogel, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany, in May 2016 was a severe and rather unfamiliar event which caused high monetary losses and heavy damage to buildings. Between 7 and 8 June we investigated all affected houses and conducted damage assessment to gain insights into the damage driving factors of those events. We conclude that the damage driving factors are complex and also differ partly from those of riverine floods, pointing out the need for further research.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Patric Kellermann, Christine Schönberger, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2357–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, 2016
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Annegret H. Thieken, Tina Bessel, Sarah Kienzler, Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Sebastian Pisi, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in central Europe, especially in Germany. The paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data, and how good data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international level, e.g. by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
P. Kellermann, A. Schöbel, G. Kundela, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2485–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, 2015
S. Kienzler, I. Pech, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
H. Cammerer, A. H. Thieken, and J. Lammel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013
C. Pfurtscheller and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2619–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: Lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Dynamic Response of Pile-Slab Retaining Wall Structure under Rockfall Impact
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The disaster impacts were largely associated with a fast urban expansion over the last three decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Also, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Alonso, J., Angermeyer, M. C., Bernert, S., Bruffaerts, R., Brugha, T. S., Bryson, H., de Girolamo, G., Graaf, R., Demyttenaere, K., Gasquet, I., Haro, J. M., Katz, S. J., Kessler, R. C., Kovess, V., Lépine, J. P., Ormel, J., Polidori, G., Russo, L. J., Vilagut, G., Almansa, J., Arbabzadeh-Bouchez, S., Autonell, J., Bernal, M., Buist-Bouwman, M. A., Codony, M., Domingo-Salvany, A., Ferrer, M., Joo, S. S., Martínez-Alonso, M., Matschinger, H., Mazzi, F., Morgan, Z., Morosini, P., Palacín, C., Romera, B., Taub, N., and Vollebergh, W. A. M.: Prevalence of mental disorders in Europe: results from the European Study of the Epidemiology of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD) project, Acta Psych. Neurol. Su., 21–27, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0047.2004.00327.x, 2004.
American Psychiatric Association (Ed.): Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, DSM-IV, American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc., ISBN 0-89042-061-0, 1994.
Apel, D. and Coenen, M.: Mental health and health-related quality of life in victims of the 2013 flood disaster in Germany – A longitudinal study of health-related flood consequences and evaluation of institutionalized low-threshold psycho-social support, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 58, 102179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102179, 2021.
Atwoli, L., Stein, D. J., King, A., Petukhova, M., Aguilar-Gaxiola, S., Alonso, J., Bromet, E. J., De Girolamo, G., Demyttenaere, K., Florescu, S., Maria Haro, J., Karam, E. G., Kawakami, N., Lee, S., Lepine, J.-P., Navarro-Mateu, F., O'Neill, S., Pennell, B.-E., Piazza, M., Posada-Villa, J., Sampson, N. A., Ten Have, M., Zaslavsky, A. M., Kessler, R. C., and on behalf of the WHO World Mental Health Survey Collaborators: Posttraumatic stress disorder associated with unexpected death of a loved one: Cross-national findings from the world mental health surveys: ATWOLI ET AL, Depress. Anxiety, 34, 315–326, https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22579, 2017.
Babcicky, P., Seebauer, S., and Thaler, T.: Make it personal: Introducing intangible outcomes and psychological sources to flood vulnerability and policy, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 58, 102169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102169, 2021.
Bei, B., Bryant, C., Gilson, K.-M., Koh, J., Gibson, P., Komiti, A., Jackson, H., and Judd, F.: A prospective study of the impact of floods on the mental and physical health of older adults, Aging Ment. Health, 17, 992–1002, https://doi.org/10.1080/13607863.2013.799119, 2013.
Brady, K. T., Killeen, T. K., Brewerton, T., and Lucerini, S.: Comorbidity of psychiatric disorders and posttraumatic stress disorder, J. Clin. Psychiat., 61 , 22–32, 2000.
Breslau, N., Peterson, E. L., Kessler, R. C., and Schultz, L. R.: Short screening scale for DSM-IV posttraumatic stress disorder, Am. J. Psychiat., 156, 908–911, https://doi.org/10.1176/ajp.156.6.908, 1999.
Bromet, E. J., Atwoli, L., Kawakami, N., Navarro-Mateu, F., Piotrowski, P., King, A. J., Aguilar-Gaxiola, S., Alonso, J., Bunting, B., Demyttenaere, K., Florescu, S., de Girolamo, G., Gluzman, S., Haro, J. M., de Jonge, P., Karam, E. G., Lee, S., Kovess-Masfety, V., Medina-Mora, M. E., Mneimneh, Z., Pennell, B.-E., Posada-Villa, J., Salmerón, D., Takeshima, T., and Kessler, R. C.: Post-traumatic stress disorder associated with natural and human-made disasters in the World Mental Health Surveys, Psychol. Med., 47, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291716002026, 2017.
Bubeck, P. and Thieken, A. H.: What helps people recover from floods? Insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in Germany, Reg. Environ. Change, 18, 287–296, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y, 2018.
Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie (BKG): GeoBasis-DE: Verwaltungsgebiete 1:5 000 000, Stand 01.01. (VG5000 01.01.), dl-de/by-2-0, GeoBasis-DE/BKG [data set], https://gdz.bkg.bund.de/index.php/default/digitale-geodaten/verwaltungsgebiete/verwaltungsgebiete-1-5-000-000-stand-01-01-vg5000-01-01.html (last access: 5 January 2024), 2024.
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG): Waterbody-DE. Waterbody as ESRI file geodatabase, ETRS89 (non INSPIRE conformant), WasserBLIcK/BfG und Zuständige Behörden der Länder [data set], https://geoportal.bafg.de/inspire/download/HY/waterbody/datasetfeed.xml (last access: 5 January 2024), 2023.
CRED and UNDRR: Human costs of disasters. An overview of the last 20 years, CRED and UNDRR, https://www.preventionweb.net/files/74124_humancostofdisasters20002019reportu.pdf (last access: 16 August 2024), 2020.
Deutsche Bahn: Zerstörungen in historischem Ausmaß: DB zieht nach Flutkatastrophe Zwischenbilanz, https://www.deutschebahn.com/de/presse/pressestart_zentrales_ uebersicht/Zerstoerungen-in-historischem-Ausmass-DB-zieht-nach-Flutkatastrophe-Zwischenbilanz-6868360, last access: 17 May 2022.
DH Emergency Preparedness Division: Emergency Planning Guidance: Planning for the Psychosocial and Mental Health Care of People Affected by Major Incidents and Disasters, DH Emergency Preparedness Division, London, https://www.coe.int/t/dg4/majorhazards/ressources/virtuallibrary/materials/UK/dh_103563.pdf (last access: 16 August 2024), 2009.
Dietze, M., Bell, R., Ozturk, U., Cook, K. L., Andermann, C., Beer, A. R., Damm, B., Lucia, A., Fauer, F. S., Nissen, K. M., Sieg, T., and Thieken, A. H.: More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022.
Dreßing, H. and Foerster, K.: Traumafolgestörungen in ICD-10, ICD-11 und DSM-5, Forensische Psychiatr. Psychol. Kriminol., 15, 47–53, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11757-020-00645-6, 2021.
Eurostat/GISCO: NUTS, European Commission – Eurostat/GISCO, EuroGeographics and TurkStat [data set], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/administrative-units-statistical-units/nuts (last access: 5 January 2024), 2021.
Fekete, A. and Sandholz, S.: Here Comes the Flood, but Not Failure? Lessons to Learn after the Heavy Rain and Pluvial Floods in Germany 2021, Water, 13, 3016, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213016, 2021.
Fernández, A., Black, J., Jones, M. K., Wilson, L., Salvador-Carulla, L., Astell-Burt, T., and Black, D.: Flooding and Mental Health: A Systematic Mapping Review, PLoS ONE, 10, 31, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0119929, 2015.
Frans, Ö., Rimmö, P.-A., Åberg, L., and Fredrikson, M.: Trauma exposure and post-traumatic stress disorder in the general population, Acta Psych. Neurol., 111, 291–290, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0447.2004.00463.x, 2005.
Galatzer-Levy, I. R., Nickerson, A., Litz, B. T., and Marmar, C. R.: Patterns Of Lifetime PTSD Comorbidity: A Latent Class Analysis: Research Article: Patterns of Lifetime PTSD Comorbidity, Depress. Anxiety, 30, 489–496, https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22048, 2013.
Galea, S., Nandi, A., and Vlahov, D.: The epidemiology of post-traumatic stress disorder after disasters, Epidemiol. Rev., 27, 78–91, https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxi003, 2005.
Galea, S., Brewin, C. R., Gruber, M., Jones, R. T., King, D. W., King, L. A., McNally, R. J., Ursano, R. J., Petukhova, M., and Kessler, R. C.: Exposure to hurricane-related stressors and mental illness after Hurricane Katrina, Arch. Gen. Psychiat., 64, 1427–1434, https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1427, 2007.
Golitaleb, M., Mazaheri, E., Bonyadi, M., and Sahebi, A.: Prevalence of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder After Flood: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Front. Psychiatry, 13, 890671, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.890671, 2022.
Graham, H., White, P., Cotton, J., and McManus, S.: Flood- and Weather-Damaged Homes and Mental Health: An Analysis Using England's Mental Health Survey, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He, 16, 3256, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16183256, 2019.
Jacobi, F., Höfler, M., Strehle, J., Mack, S., Gerschler, A., Scholl, L., Busch, M. A., Maske, U., Hapke, U., Gaebel, W., Maier, W., Wagner, M., Zielasek, J., and Wittchen, H.-U.: Psychische Störungen in der Allgemeinbevölkerung: Studie zur Gesundheit Erwachsener in Deutschland und ihr Zusatzmodul Psychische Gesundheit (DEGS1-MH), Nervenarzt, 85, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00115-013-3961-y, 2014.
Jermacane, D., Waite, T. D., Beck, C. R., Bone, A., Amlôt, R., Reacher, M., Kovats, S., Armstrong, B., Leonardi, G., James Rubin, G., and Oliver, I.: The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two, BMC Public Health, 18, 330, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-5236-9, 2018.
Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Glob. Environ. Chang., 22, 823–835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004, 2012.
Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., and Ward, P. J.: Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 264–268, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2124, 2014.
Junghänel, T., Bissolli, P., Daßler, J., Fleckenstein, R., Imbery, F., Janssen, W., Kaspar, F., Lengfeld, K., Leppelt, T., Rauthe, M., Rauthe-Schöch, A., Rocek, M., Walawender, E., and Weigl, E.: Hydro-klimatologische Einordnung der Stark- und Dauerniederschläge in Teilen Deutschlands im Zusammenhang mit dem Tiefdruckgebiet “Bernd” vom 12. bis 19. Juli 2021, Deutscher Wetterdienst, https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/besondereereignisse/niederschlag/20210721_bericht_starkniederschlaege_tief_bernd.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=10 (last access: 16 August 2024), 2021.
Keya, T. A., Leela, A., Habib, N., Rashid, M., and Bakthavatchalam, P.: Mental Health Disorders Due to Disaster Exposure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Cureus, 15, e37031, https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.37031, 2023.
Keyes, K. M., Pratt, C., Galea, S., McLaughlin, K. A., Koenen, K. C., and Shear, M. K.: The Burden of Loss: Unexpected Death of a Loved One and Psychiatric Disorders Across the Life Course in a National Study, Am. J. Psychiat., 171, 864–871, https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2014.13081132, 2014.
Kimerling, R., Ouimette, P., Prins, A., Nisco, P., Lawler, C., Cronkite, R., and Moos, R. H.: Brief report: Utility of a short screening scale for DSM-IV PTSD in primary care, J. Gen. Intern. Med., 21, 65–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1525-1497.2005.00292.x, 2006.
Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, Th., Müller, M., and Merz, B.: Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-117-2005, 2005.
Kron, W., Eichner, J., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Reduction of flood risk in Europe – Reflections from a reinsurance perspective, J. Hydrol., 576, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050, 2019.
Kron, W., Bell, R., Thiebes, B., and Thieken, A.: The July 2021 flood disaster in Germany, in: 2022 HELP Global Report on Water and Disasters, High-level Experts and Leaders Panel on Water and Disasters (HELP), Tokyo, 12–44, https://dkkv.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/HELP_Global_Report_2022.pdf (last access: 16 August 2024), 2022.
Lamond, J. E., Joseph, R. D., and Proverbs, D. G.: An exploration of factors affecting the long term psychological impact and deterioration of mental health in flooded households, Environ. Res., 140, 325–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2015.04.008, 2015.
Laudan, J., Zöller, G., and Thieken, A. H.: Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020.
Lowe, D., Ebi, K. L., and Forsberg, B.: Factors increasing vulnerability to health effects before, during and after floods, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 10, 7015–7067, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10127015, 2013.
Maercker, A., Hecker, T., Augsburger, M., and Kliem, S.: ICD-11 Prevalence Rates of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Complex Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in a German Nationwide Sample, J. Nerv. Ment. Dis., 206, 270–276, https://doi.org/10.1097/NMD.0000000000000790, 2018.
Mason, V., Andrews, H., and Upton, D.: The psychological impact of exposure to floods, Psychol. Health Med., 15, 61–73, https://doi.org/10.1080/13548500903483478, 2010.
Merz, B., Elmer, F., Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Schröter, K., and Uhlemann-Elmer, S.: The extreme flood in June 2013 in Germany, Houille Blanche, 100, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2014001, 2014.
Munich Re: Schadenereignisse in Deutschland 1980–2017, NatCatSERVICE, https://www.ergo.com/-/media/ergocom/pdf-mediathek/naturgefahren/1980-2017-naturgefahren-deutschland-natcatservice.pdf (last access: 16 August 2024), 2018.
Munich Re: Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021, https://www.munichre.com/en/company/media-relations/media-information-and-corporate-news/media-information/2022/natural-disaster-losses-2021.html (last access: 22 December 2023), 2022.
National Mental Health Commission: National disaster mental health and wellbeing framework, Supporting Australians' mental health through disaster, National Mental Health Commission, https://nema.gov.au/sites/default/files/inline-files/28108 NEMA National Disaster Mental Health and Wellbeing Framework FA v4.pdf (last access: 16 August 2024), 2023.
Nitschke, M., Einsle, F., Lippmann, C., Simonis, G., Köllner, V., and Strasser, R. H.: Emergency evacuation of the Dresden Heart Centre in the flood disaster in Germany 2002: perceptions of patients and psychosocial burdens, Int. J. Disast. Med., 4, 118–124, https://doi.org/10.1080/15031430601138290, 2006.
Norris, F. H., Friedman, M. J., and Watson, P. J.: 60,000 disaster victims speak: Part II. Summary and implications of the disaster mental health research, Psychiatry, 65, 240–260, https://doi.org/10.1521/psyc.65.3.240.20169, 2002.
Norris, M. and Lecavalier, L.: Evaluating the Use of Exploratory Factor Analysis in Developmental Disability Psychological Research, J. Autism Dev. Disord., 40, 8–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-009-0816-2, 2010.
Paprotny, D., Morales-Nápoles, O., and Jonkman, S. N.: HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 565–581, [dataset], https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:5b75be6a-4dd4-472e-9424-f7ac4f7367f6, 2018.
Paranjothy, S., Gallacher, J., Amlôt, R., Rubin, G. J., Page, L., Baxter, T., Wight, J., Kirrage, D., McNaught, R., and Sr, P.: Psychosocial impact of the summer 2007 floods in England, BMC Public Health, 11, 145, https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-145, 2011.
Puechlong, C., Weiss, K., Le Vigouroux, S., and Charbonnier, E.: Role of personality traits and cognitive emotion regulation strategies in symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder among flood victims, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 50, 101688, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101688, 2020.
Pulcino, T., Galea, S., Ahern, J., Resnick, H., Foley, M., and Vlahov, D.: Posttraumatic Stress in Women after the September 11 Terrorist Attacks in New York City, J. Womens Health, 12, 809–820, https://doi.org/10.1089/154099903322447774, 2003.
Schwarz, E. D. and Kowalski, J. M.: Posttraumatic stress disorder after a school shooting: effects of symptom threshold selection and diagnosis by DSM-III, DSM-III-R, or proposed DSM-IV, Am. J. Psychiat., 148, 592–597, https://doi.org/10.1176/ajp.148.5.592, 1991.
Seidler, Z. E., Rice, S. M., Ogrodniczuk, J. S., Oliffe, J. L., Shaw, J. M., and Dhillon, H. M.: Men, masculinities, depression: Implications for mental health services from a Delphi expert consensus study, Prof. Psychol. Res. Pract., 50, 51–61, https://doi.org/10.1037/pro0000220, 2019.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pint, I., Sato, M., Vicente-Serranno, S. M., Wehn, M., and Zho, B.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Siegrist, P. and Maercker, A.: Deutsche Fassung der Short Screening Scale for DSM-IV Posttraumatic Stress Disorder. Aktueller Stand der Validierung, Trauma Gewalt, 4, 208-213–213, 2010.
Stanke, C., Murray, V., Amlôt, R., Nurse, J., and Williams, R.: The effects of flooding on mental health: Outcomes and recommendations from a review of the literature, PLoS Curr., 4, e4f9f1fa9c3cae, https://doi.org/10.1371/4f9f1fa9c3cae, 2012.
Statistical Office Rhineland-Palatinate (RP): Fast 24,5 Millionen Euro Soforthilfen an private Haushalte im Ahrtal ausgezahlt, https://www.statistik.rlp.de/nachrichten/nachichtendetailseite/fast-245-millionen-euro-soforthilfen-an-private-haushalte-im-ahrtal-ausgezahlt-innenminister-lewentz-dankt-statistischem-landesamt (last access: 19 August 2024), 2021.
Statistical Office Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP): Demografischer Wandel in Rheinland-Pfalz. Sechste regionalisierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung (Basisjahr 2020). Ergebnisse für den Landkreis Ahrweiler, https://www.statistik.rlp.de/fileadmin/dokumente/stat_analysen/RP_2070/kreis/131.pdf (last access: 18 August 2024), 2022.
Statistical Office Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP): Verfügbares Einkommen der privaten Haushalte, Statistische Monatshefte 1, https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/RPMonografie_derivate_00000331/01_2023_Volkswirtschaft.pdf (last access: 19 August 2024), 2023.
Statistical Office Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP): Bevölkerung der Gemeinden am 30. Juni 2022, Statistische Berichte, https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/RPHeft_derivate_00008228/A1033_202221_hj_G.pdf (last access: 19 August 2024), 2024.
Tapsell, S.: Socio-Psychological Dimensions of Flood Risk Management, in: Flood Risk Science and Management, edited by: Pender, G. and Faulkner, H., Wiley, 407–428, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444324846.ch20, 2010.
Thieken, A. H., Müller, M., Kreibich, H., and Merz, B.: Flood damage and influencing factors: New insights from the August 2002 flood in Germany, Water Resour. Res., 41, 2005WR004177, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004177, 2005.
Thieken, A. H., Bessel, T., Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Pisi, S., and Schröter, K.: The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016.
Thieken, A., Bubeck, P., and Zenker, M.-L.: Fatal incidents during the flood of July 2021 in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany: what can be learnt for future flood risk management?, J. Coast. Riverine Flood Risk, 2, paper 5, https://doi.org/10.59490/jcrfr.2023.0005, 2023a.
Thieken, A. H., Bubeck, P., Heidenreich, A., von Keyserlingk, J., Dillenardt, L., and Otto, A.: Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023b.
Tradowsky, J. S., Philip, S. Y., Kreienkamp, F., Kew, S. F., Lorenz, P., Arrighi, J., Bettmann, T., Caluwaerts, S., Chan, S. C., De Cruz, L., De Vries, H., Demuth, N., Ferrone, A., Fischer, E. M., Fowler, H. J., Goergen, K., Heinrich, D., Henrichs, Y., Kaspar, F., Lenderink, G., Nilson, E., Otto, F. E. L., Ragone, F., Seneviratne, S. I., Singh, R. K., Skålevåg, A., Termonia, P., Thalheimer, L., Van Aalst, M., Van Den Bergh, J., Van De Vyver, H., Vannitsem, S., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Vautard, R., Vonk, D., and Wanders, N.: Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021, Clim. Change, 176, 90, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7, 2023.
Truedinger, A. J., Jamshed, A., Sauter, H., and Birkmann, J.: Adaptation after Extreme Flooding Events: Moving or Staying? The Case of the Ahr Valley in Germany, Sustainability, 15, 1407, https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021407, 2023.
Tunstall, S., Tapsell, S., Green, C., Floyd, P., and George, C.: The health effects of flooding: social research results from England and Wales, J. Water Health, 4, 365–380, https://doi.org/10.2166/wh.2006.031, 2006.
US Government: Post-Disaster Mental Health Response Act, H.R.5703 – 117th Congr., 2021–2022, https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5703 (last access: 16 August 2024), 2022.
Van Der Velden, P. G., Contino, C., Muffels, R., Verheijen, M. S., and Das, M.: The impact of pre- and post-trauma financial problems on posttraumatic stress symptoms, anxiety and depression symptoms, and emotional support: A prospective population-based comparative study, J. Anxiety Disord., 96, 102714, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2023.102714, 2023.
Vorogushyn, S., Apel, H., Kemter, M., and Thieken, A.: Statistical and hydraulic analysis of flood hazard in the Ahr valley, Germany considering historical floods, IAHS-AISH Scientific Assembly 2022, Montpellier, France, 29 May–3 Jun 2022, IAHS2022-660, https://doi.org/10.5194/iahs2022-660, 2022.
Wang, X., Gao, L., Shinfuku, N., Zhang, H., Zhao, C., and Shen, Y.: Longitudinal Study of Earthquake-Related PTSD in a Randomly Selected Community Sample in North China, Am. J. Psychiat., 157, 1260–1266, https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.157.8.1260, 2000.
Wiseman, T., Foster, K., and Curtis, K.: Mental health following traumatic physical injury: An integrative literature review, Injury, 44, 1383–1390, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2012.02.015, 2013.
Zhong, S., Yang, L., Toloo, S., Wang, Z., Tong, S., Sun, X., Crompton, D., FitzGerald, G., and Huang, C.: The long-term physical and psychological health impacts of flooding: A systematic mapping, Sci. Total Environ., 626, 165–194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.041, 2018.
Executive editor
This paper fills a knowledge gap concerning the mental health implications following devastating flood disasters. The authors use
a household-level survey to investigate risk and protective factors of post-traumatic stress disorder experienced in conjunction with the major event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, in July 2021.
This paper fills a knowledge gap concerning the mental health implications following devastating...
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint