Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 30 Jan 2024
| 30 Jan 2024
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Josep Bonsoms
Department of Geography, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, Zaragoza, Spain
Esteban Alonso-González
Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO), Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Toulouse, France
César Deschamps-Berger
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, Zaragoza, Spain
Marc Oliva
Department of Geography, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Related authors
Josep Bonsoms, Marc Oliva, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Guillaume Jouvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1770, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The extent to which Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps current and future ice loss rates are unprecedented within the Holocene is poorly understood. This study connects the maximum ice extent of the Late Holocene with present and future glacier evolution in the Nuussuaq Peninsula (Central-Western Greenland). By > 2070 glacier mass loss may double the rate from the Late Holocene to the present, highlighting significant impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Esteban Alonso-González
The Cryosphere, 17, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyzes the snow response to temperature and precipitation in the Pyrenees. During warm and wet seasons, seasonal snow depth is expected to be reduced by −37 %, −34 %, and −27 % per degree Celsius at low-, mid-, and high-elevation areas, respectively. The largest snow reductions are anticipated at low elevations of the eastern Pyrenees. Results anticipate important impacts on the nearby ecological and socioeconomic systems.
Sara Arioli, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Simon Gascoin, Esteban Alonso-González, Marine Poizat, and Mark Irvine
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3913–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-accuracy precision maps of the surface temperature of snow were acquired with an uncooled thermal-infrared camera during winter 2021–2022 and spring 2023. The accuracy – i.e., mean absolute error – improved from 1.28 K to 0.67 K between the seasons thanks to an improved camera setup and temperature stabilization. The dataset represents a major advance in the validation of satellite measurements and physical snow models over a complex topography.
Josep Bonsoms, Marc Oliva, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Guillaume Jouvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1770, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The extent to which Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps current and future ice loss rates are unprecedented within the Holocene is poorly understood. This study connects the maximum ice extent of the Late Holocene with present and future glacier evolution in the Nuussuaq Peninsula (Central-Western Greenland). By > 2070 glacier mass loss may double the rate from the Late Holocene to the present, highlighting significant impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamps-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2 to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the high societal importance. We explore how to update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the narrow satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of this approach for improving snow simulations, both in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3074, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen soil at depth) is thawing as a result of climate change. However, estimating its future degradation is particularly challenging due to the complex multi-physical processes involved. In this work, we designed and ran numerical simulations for months on a supercomputer to quantify the impact of climate change in a forested valley of Central Siberia. There, climate change could increase the thickness of the seasonally thawed soil layer in summer by up to 45 % by 2100.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, Sara Arioli, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 17, 3329–3342, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation techniques are a promising approach to improve snowpack simulations in remote areas that are difficult to monitor. This paper studies the ability of satellite-observed land surface temperature to improve snowpack simulations through data assimilation. We show that it is possible to improve snowpack simulations, but the temporal resolution of the observations and the algorithm used are critical to obtain satisfactory results.
Ixeia Vidaller, Eñaut Izagirre, Luis Mariano del Rio, Esteban Alonso-González, Francisco Rojas-Heredia, Enrique Serrano, Ana Moreno, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Jesús Revuelto
The Cryosphere, 17, 3177–3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Aneto glacier, the largest glacier in the Pyrenees, has shown continuous surface and ice thickness losses in the last decades. In this study, we examine changes in its surface and ice thickness for 1981–2022 and the remaining ice thickness in 2020. During these 41 years, the glacier has shrunk by 64.7 %, and the ice thickness has decreased by 30.5 m on average. The mean ice thickness in 2022 was 11.9 m, compared to 32.9 m in 1981. The results highlight the critical situation of the glacier.
César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, David Shean, Hannah Besso, Ambroise Guiot, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
The Cryosphere, 17, 2779–2792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the snow depth in mountains is hard, despite the importance of the snowpack for human societies and ecosystems. We measured the snow depth in mountains by comparing the elevation of points measured with snow from the high-precision altimetric satellite ICESat-2 to the elevation without snow from various sources. Snow depths derived only from ICESat-2 were too sparse, but using external airborne/satellite products results in spatially richer and sufficiently precise snow depths.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Esteban Alonso-González
The Cryosphere, 17, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work analyzes the snow response to temperature and precipitation in the Pyrenees. During warm and wet seasons, seasonal snow depth is expected to be reduced by −37 %, −34 %, and −27 % per degree Celsius at low-, mid-, and high-elevation areas, respectively. The largest snow reductions are anticipated at low elevations of the eastern Pyrenees. Results anticipate important impacts on the nearby ecological and socioeconomic systems.
Miguel Bartolomé, Gérard Cazenave, Marc Luetscher, Christoph Spötl, Fernando Gázquez, Ánchel Belmonte, Alexandra V. Turchyn, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Ana Moreno
The Cryosphere, 17, 477–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we study the microclimate and the geomorphological features of Devaux ice cave in the Central Pyrenees. The research is based on cave monitoring, geomorphology, and geochemical analyses. We infer two different thermal regimes. The cave is impacted by flooding in late winter/early spring when the main outlets freeze, damming the water inside. Rock temperatures below 0°C and the absence of drip water indicate frozen rock, while relict ice formations record past damming events.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Bertrand Cluzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, César Deschamps-Berger, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 16, 1281–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1281-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1281-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mountainous snow cover is highly variable at all temporal and spatial scales. Snow cover models suffer from large errors, while snowpack observations are sparse. Data assimilation combines them into a better estimate of the snow cover. A major challenge is to propagate information from observed into unobserved areas. This paper presents a spatialized version of the particle filter, in which information from in situ snow depth observations is successfully used to constrain nearby simulations.
Esteban Alonso-González, Ethan Gutmann, Kristoffer Aalstad, Abbas Fayad, Marine Bouchet, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4455–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Esteban Alonso-González and Víctor Fernández-García
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1925-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1925-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first global burn severity database (MOSEV database), which is based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance and burned area products. The database inludes monthly scenes with the dNBR, RdNBR and post-burn NBR spectral indices at 500 m spatial resolution from November 2000 onwards. Moreover, in this work we show that there is a close relationship between the burn severity metrics included in MOSEV and the same ones obtained from Landsat-8.
Ana Moreno, Miguel Bartolomé, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jorge Pey, Juan Pablo Corella, Jordi García-Orellana, Carlos Sancho, María Leunda, Graciela Gil-Romera, Penélope González-Sampériz, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Francisco Navarro, Jaime Otero-García, Javier Lapazaran, Esteban Alonso-González, Cristina Cid, Jerónimo López-Martínez, Belén Oliva-Urcia, Sérgio Henrique Faria, María José Sierra, Rocío Millán, Xavier Querol, Andrés Alastuey, and José M. García-Ruíz
The Cryosphere, 15, 1157–1172, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1157-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1157-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study of the chronological sequence of Monte Perdido Glacier in the Central Pyrenees (Spain) reveals that, although the intense warming associated with the Roman period or Medieval Climate Anomaly produced important ice mass losses, it was insufficient to make this glacier disappear. By contrast, recent global warming has melted away almost 600 years of ice accumulated since the Little Ice Age, jeopardising the survival of this and other southern European glaciers over the next few decades.
Nora Helbig, Yves Bühler, Lucie Eberhard, César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, Marie Dumont, Jesus Revuelto, Jeff S. Deems, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 15, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial variability in snow depth in mountains is driven by interactions between topography, wind, precipitation and radiation. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions, this is accounted for by the fractional snow-covered area describing the fraction of the ground surface covered by snow. We developed a new description for model grid cell sizes larger than 200 m. An evaluation suggests that the description performs similarly well in most geographical regions.
César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, Jeffrey Deems, Ethan Gutmann, Amaury Dehecq, David Shean, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 14, 2925–2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a recent method to map snow depth based on satellite photogrammetry. We compare it with accurate airborne laser-scanning measurements in the Sierra Nevada, USA. We find that satellite data capture the relationship between snow depth and elevation at the catchment scale and also small-scale features like snow drifts and avalanche deposits. We conclude that satellite photogrammetry stands out as a convenient method to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in high mountains.
Brett Woelber, Marco P. Maneta, Joel Harper, Kelsey G. Jencso, W. Payton Gardner, Andrew C. Wilcox, and Ignacio López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4295–4310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4295-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4295-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrology of high-elevation headwaters in midlatitudes is typically dominated by snow processes, which are very sensitive to changes in energy inputs at the top of the snowpack. We present a data analyses that reveal how snowmelt and transpiration waves induced by the diurnal solar cycle generate water pressure fluctuations that propagate through the snowpack–hillslope–stream system. Changes in diurnal energy inputs alter these pressure cycles with potential ecohydrological consequences.
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Esteban Alonso-González, J. Ignacio López-Moreno, Simon Gascoin, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Francisco Navarro-Serrano, Jesús Revuelto, Antonio Ceballos, María Jesús Esteban-Parra, and Richard Essery
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 303–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new daily gridded snow depth and snow water equivalent database over the Iberian Peninsula from 1980 to 2014 structured in common elevation bands. The data have proved their consistency with in situ observations and remote sensing data (MODIS). The presented dataset may be useful for many applications, including land management, hydrometeorological studies, phenology of flora and fauna, winter tourism and risk management.
Jesús Revuelto, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Francisco Navarro-Serrano, Ibai Rico, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 993–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-993-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-993-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the snow and meteorological data set available for the Izas Experimental Catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees, from the 2011 to 2017 snow seasons. The climatic data set consists of (i) continuous meteorological variables acquired from an automatic weather station (AWS), (ii) detailed information on snow depth distribution collected with a terrestrial laser scanner for certain dates and (iii) time-lapse images showing the evolution of the snow-covered area.
Samuel T. Buisán, Michael E. Earle, José Luís Collado, John Kochendorfer, Javier Alastrué, Mareile Wolff, Craig D. Smith, and Juan I. López-Moreno
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1079–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1079-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1079-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the WMO-SPICE (Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment) the Thies tipping bucket precipitation gauge, widely used at AEMET, was assessed against the SPICE reference.
Most countries use tipping buckets and for this reason the underestimation of snowfall precipitation is a large-scale problem.
The methodology presented here can be used by other national weather services to test precipitation bias corrections and to identify regions where errors are higher.
Graham A. Sexstone, Steven R. Fassnacht, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Christopher A. Hiemstra
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-188, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal snowpacks vary spatially within mountainous environments and the representation of this variability by modeling can be a challenge. This study uses high-resolution airborne lidar data to evaluate the variability of snow depth within a grid size common for modeling applications. Results suggest that snow depth coefficient of variation is well correlated with ecosystem type, depth of snow, and topography and forest characteristics, and can be parameterized using airborne lidar data.
Anita Drumond, Erica Taboada, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 549–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A Lagrangian approach was used to identify the moisture sources for fourteen ice-core sites located worldwide for the present climate. The approach computed budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along 10-day backward trajectories. The results indicate that the oceanic regions around the subtropical high-pressure centers provide most of moisture, and their contribution varies throughout the year following the annual cycles of the centers.
Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto, Ibai Rico, Javier Chueca-Cía, Asunción Julián, Alfredo Serreta, Enrique Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, and José María García-Ruiz
The Cryosphere, 10, 681–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, Spanish Pyrenees, since 1981. Changes in ice volume were estimated by geodetic methods and terrestrial laser scanning. An acceleration in ice thinning is detected during the 21st century. Local climatic changes observed during the study period do not seem sufficient to explain the acceleration. The strong disequilibrium between the glacier and the current climate and feedback mechanisms seems to be the most plausible explanation.
M. Fritz, B. N. Deshpande, F. Bouchard, E. Högström, J. Malenfant-Lepage, A. Morgenstern, A. Nieuwendam, M. Oliva, M. Paquette, A. C. A. Rudy, M. B. Siewert, Y. Sjöberg, and S. Weege
The Cryosphere, 9, 1715–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1715-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This is a contribution about the future of permafrost research to the 3rd International Conference on Arctic Research Planning 2015 (ICARP III).
We summarize the top five research questions for the next decade of permafrost science from the perspective of early career researchers (ECRs).
We highlight the pathways and structural preconditions to address these research priorities.
This manuscript is an outcome of a community consultation conducted for and by ECRs on a global level.
E. Nadal-Romero, J. Revuelto, P. Errea, and J. I. López-Moreno
SOIL, 1, 561–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-561-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Geomatic techniques have been routinely applied in erosion studies, providing the opportunity to build high-resolution topographic models.The aim of this study is to assess and compare the functioning of terrestrial laser scanner and close range photogrammetry techniques to evaluate erosion and deposition processes in a humid badlands area.
Our results demonstrated that north slopes experienced more intense and faster dynamics than south slopes as well as the highest erosion rates.
J. Revuelto, J. I. López-Moreno, C. Azorin-Molina, and S. M. Vicente-Serrano
The Cryosphere, 8, 1989–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, 2014
A. Gómez-Ortiz, M. Oliva, F. Salvador-Franch, M. Salvà-Catarineu, D. Palacios, J. J. de Sanjosé-Blasco, L. M. Tanarro-García, J. Galindo-Zaldívar, and C. Sanz de Galdeano
Solid Earth, 5, 979–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-979-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-979-2014, 2014
M. Oliva, G. Vieira, P. Pina, P. Pereira, M. Neves, and M. C. Freitas
Solid Earth, 5, 901–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-901-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-901-2014, 2014
E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
A modelled multi-decadal hailday time series for Switzerland
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Spatial identification of regions at risk to multi-hazards at pan European level: an implemented methodological approach
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heatwave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heatwaves (HW): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-371, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past haildays in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new timeseries reveals a significant increase in hail occurrences over the last seven decades. We link this trend to climate factors, showcasing the impact of increasing moisture and instability in the atmosphere. The last two decades have seen a surge in early hailseason events. This time series can now be used to study what drives the strong year-to-year variability of Swiss hailstorms.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Cited articles
Alonso-González, E., López-Moreno, J. I., Navarro-Serrano, F., Sanmiguel-Vallelado, A., Revuelto, J., Domínguez-Castro, F., and Ceballos, A.: Snow climatology for the mountains in the Iberian Peninsula using satellite imagery and simulations with dynamically downscaled reanalysis data, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 477–491, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6223, 2019.
Alonso-González, E., López-Moreno, J. I., Navarro-Serrano, F., Sanmiguel-Vallelado, A., Aznárez-Balta, M., Revuelto, J., and Ceballos, A.: Snowpack Sensitivity to Temperature, Precipitation, and Solar Radiation Variability over an Elevational Gradient in the Iberian Mountains, Atmos. Res., 243, 104973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104973, 2020a.
Alonso-González, E., López-Moreno, J. I., Navarro-Serrano, F. M., and Revuelto, J.: Impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the snowpack in Iberian Peninsula mountains, Water-Sui., 12, 105, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010105, 2020b.
Alonso-González, E., Aalstad, K., Baba, M. W., Revuelto, J., López-Moreno, J. I., Fiddes, J., Essery, R., and Gascoin, S.: The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022.
Amblar-Francés, M. P., Ramos-Calzado, P., Sanchis-Lladó, J., Hernanz-Lázaro, A., Peral-García, M. C., Navascués, B., Dominguez-Alonso, M., Pastor-Saavedra, M. A., and Rodríguez-Camino, E.: High resolution climate change projections for the Pyrenees region, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 191–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-191-2020, 2020.
Beniston, M. and Stoffel, M.: Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4 ∘C and decrease thereafter, Sci. Total Environ., 571, 228–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.146, 2016.
Beniston, M., Farinotti, D., Stoffel, M., Andreassen, L. M., Coppola, E., Eckert, N., Fantini, A., Giacona, F., Hauck, C., Huss, M., Huwald, H., Lehning, M., López-Moreno, J.-I., Magnusson, J., Marty, C., Morán-Tejéda, E., Morin, S., Naaim, M., Provenzale, A., Rabatel, A., Six, D., Stötter, J., Strasser, U., Terzago, S., and Vincent, C.: The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges, The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018.
Bieniek, P. A., Bhatt, U. S., Walsh, J. E., Lader, R., Griffith, B., Roach, J. K., and Thoman, R. L.: Assessment of Alaska rain-on-snow events using dynamical downscaling, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 1847–1863, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0276.1, 2018.
Bjerke, J. W., Treharne, R., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Karlsen, S. R., Ravolainen, V., Bokhorst, S., Phoenix, G. K., Bochenek, Z., and Tømmervik, H.: Understanding the drivers of extensive plant damage in boreal and Arctic ecosystems: insights from field surveys in the aftermath of damage, Sci. Total Environ., 599–600, 1965–1976, 2017.
Bonsoms, J. and Ninyerola, M.: Comparison of linear, generalized additive models and machine learning algorithms for spatial climate interpolation, Theor. Appl. Climatol. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04725-5, 2023.
Bonsoms, J., Franch, F. S., and Oliva, M.: Snowfall and snow cover evolution in the Eastern Pre-Pyrenees (NE Iberian Peninsula), Cuadern. Investig./Geographical Research Letters, 47, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4879, 2021a.
Bonsoms, J., González, S., Prohom, M., Esteban, P., Salvador-Franch, F., López-Moreno, J. I., and Oliva, M.: Spatio-temporal patterns of snow in the Catalan Pyrenees (NE Iberia), Int. J. Climatol., 41, 5676–5697, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7147, 2021b.
Bonsoms, J., López-Moreno, J. I., González, S., and Oliva, M.: Increase of the energy available for snow ablation in the Pyrenees (1959–2020) and its relation to atmospheric circulation, Atmos. Res., 275, 106228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106228, 2022.
Bonsoms, J., López-Moreno, J. I., and Alonso-González, E.: Snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change during compound cold–hot and wet–dry seasons in the Pyrenees, The Cryosphere, 17, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023, 2023.
Buisan, S. T., López-Moreno, J. I., Saz, M. A., and Korchendorfer, J.: Impact of weather type variability on winter precipitation, temperature and annual snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees, Clim. Res., 69, 79–92, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01391, 2016.
Cohen, J., Ye, H., and Jones, J.: Trends and variability in rain-on-snow events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7115–7122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065320, 2015.
Collados-Lara, A. J., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., and Alonso-González, E.: Estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamic of snow water equivalent at mountain range scale under data scarcity, Sci. Total Environ., 741, 140485, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140485, 2020.
Conway, H. and Raymond, C. F.: Snow stability during rain, J. Glaciol., 39, 635–642, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000016531, 1993.
Corripio, J. G. and López-Moreno, J. I.: Analysis and predictability of the hydrological response of mountain catchments to heavy rain on snow events: A case study in the Spanish Pyrenees, Hydrology, 4, 20, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4020020, 2017.
Del Barrio, G., Creus, J., and Puigdefabregas, J.: Thermal Seasonality of the High Mountain Belts of the Pyrenees, Mt. Res. Dev., 10, 227–233, 1990.
Deschamps-Berger, C., Cluzet, B., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Berthier, E., Fanise, P., and Gascoin, S.: Improving the Spatial Distribution of Snow Cover Simulations by Assimilation of Satellite Stereoscopic Imagery, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030271, 2022.
Durand, Y., Giraud, G., Brun, E., Mérindol, L., and Martin, E.: A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 45, 469–484, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000001337, 1999.
Durand, Y., Laternser, M., Giraud, G., Etchevers, P., Lesaffre, B., and Mérindol, L.: Reanalysis of 44 yr of climate in the French Alps (1958–2002): Methodology, model validation, climatology, and trends for air temperature and precipitation, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1808.1, 2009.
Essery, R.: A factorial snowpack model (FSM 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3867–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3867-2015, 2015.
Essery, R., Kim, H., Wang, L., Bartlett, P., Boone, A., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., Burke, E., Cuntz, M., Decharme, B., Dutra, E., Fang, X., Gusev, Y., Hagemann, S., Haverd, V., Kontu, A., Krinner, G., Lafaysse, M., Lejeune, Y., Marke, T., Marks, D., Marty, C., Menard, C. B., Nasonova, O., Nitta, T., Pomeroy, J., Schädler, G., Semenov, V., Smirnova, T., Swenson, S., Turkov, D., Wever, N., and Yuan, H.: Snow cover duration trends observed at sites and predicted by multiple models, The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020.
Essery, R.: FSM2, GitHub [code], https://github.com/RichardEssery/FSM2, last access: 15 January 2023.
Freudiger, D., Kohn, I., Stahl, K., and Weiler, M.: Large-scale analysis of changing frequencies of rain-on-snow events with flood-generation potential, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, 2014.
García-Ruiz, J. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lasanta-Martínez, T., and Beguería, S.: Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario, Earth-Sci. Rev., 105, 121–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.01.006, 2011.
Garvelmann, J., Pohl, S., and Weiler, M.: Variability of observed energy fluxes during rain-on-snow and clear sky snowmelt in a midlatitude mountain environment, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1220–1237, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0187.1, 2014.
Günther, D., Marke, T., Essery, R., and Strasser, U.: Uncertainties in Snowpack Simulations–Assessing the Impact of Model Structure, Parameter Choice, and Forcing Data Error on Point-Scale Energy Balance Snow Model Performance, Water Resour. Res., 55, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023403, 2019.
Hansen, B. B., Isaksen, K., Benestad, R. E., Kohler, J., Pedersen, Å. Ø., Loe, L. E., Coulson, S. J., Larsen, J. O., and Varpe, Ø.: Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 114021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021, 2014.
Harder, P. and Pomeroy, J.: Hydrological model uncertainty due to precipitation-phase partitioning methods, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4311–4327, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9799, 2014.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 131–202, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.004, 2019.
Il Jeong, D. and Sushama, L.: Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models, Clim. Dynam., 50, 303–316, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3609-x, 2018.
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. v., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577, 364–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020.
Jennings, K. S., Winchell, T. S., Livneh, B., and Molotch, N. P.: Spatial variation of the rain-snow temperature threshold across the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Commun., 9, 1148, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03629-7, 2018.
Kohler, J. and Aanes, R.: Effect of winter snow and ground-icing on a Svalbard reindeer population: Results of a simple snowpack model, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 36, 333–341, https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2004)036[0333:EOWSAG]2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Krinner, G., Derksen, C., Essery, R., Flanner, M., Hagemann, S., Clark, M., Hall, A., Rott, H., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., Kim, H., Ménard, C. B., Mudryk, L., Thackeray, C., Wang, L., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Bartlett, P., Boike, J., Boone, A., Chéruy, F., Colin, J., Cuntz, M., Dai, Y., Decharme, B., Derry, J., Ducharne, A., Dutra, E., Fang, X., Fierz, C., Ghattas, J., Gusev, Y., Haverd, V., Kontu, A., Lafaysse, M., Law, R., Lawrence, D., Li, W., Marke, T., Marks, D., Ménégoz, M., Nasonova, O., Nitta, T., Niwano, M., Pomeroy, J., Raleigh, M. S., Schaedler, G., Semenov, V., Smirnova, T. G., Stacke, T., Strasser, U., Svenson, S., Turkov, D., Wang, T., Wever, N., Yuan, H., Zhou, W., and Zhu, D.: ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018.
Lemus-Canovas, M., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Trapero, L., and Martin-Vide, J.: Combining circulation weather types and daily precipitation modelling to derive climatic precipitation regions in the Pyrenees, Atmos. Res., 220, 181–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.01.018, 2019.
Lemus-Canovas, M., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Martín-Vide, J., Halifa-Marin, A., Insua-Costa, D., Martinez-Artigas, J., Trapero, L., Serrano-Notivoli, R., and Cuadrat, J. M.: Characterisation of extreme precipitation events in the Pyrenees: From the local to the synoptic scale, Atmosphere-Basel, 12, 665, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060665, 2021.
Li, D., Lettenmaier, D. P., Margulis, S. A., and Andreadis, K.: The Role of Rain-on-Snow in Flooding Over the Conterminous United States, Water Resour. Res., 55, 8492–8513, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024950, 2019.
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Llasat-Botija, M., Gilabert, J., Turco, M., and Quintana-Seguí, P.: Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 149, 230–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.05.024, 2014.
López-Moreno, J. I.: Recent variations of snowpack depth in the central Spanish Pyrenees, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 37, 253–260, https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2005)037[0253:RVOSDI]2.0.CO;2, 2005.
López-Moreno, J. I. and Latron, J.: Spatial heterogeneity in snow water equivalent induced by forest canopy in a mixed beech-fir stand in the Pyrenees, Ann. Glaciol. 49, 83–90, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814951, 2008.
López-Moreno, J. I. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Atmospheric circulation influence on the interannual variability of snowpack in the Spanish Pyrenees during the second half of the 20th century, Hydrol. Res., 38, 38–44, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2007.030, 2007.
López-Moreno, J. I., Goyette, S., and Beniston, M.: Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1535–1550, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1645, 2008.
López-Moreno, J. I., Goyette, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and Beniston, M.: Effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees, Climatic Change, 105, 489–508, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9889-3, 2011.
López-Moreno, J. I., Pomeroy, J. W., Revuelto, J., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Response of snow processes to climate change: Spatial variability in a small basin in the Spanish Pyrenees, Hydrol. Process., 27, 2637–2650, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9408, 2013.
López-Moreno, J. I., Soubeyroux, J.M., Gascoin, S., Alonso-González, E., Durán-Gómez, N., Lafaysse, M., Vernay, M., Carmagnola, C., and Morin, S.: Long-term trends (1958–2017) in snow cover duration and depth in the Pyrenees, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6571, 2020.
López-Moreno, J. I., Pomeroy, J. W., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Navarro-Serrano, F. M., Vidaller, I., and Alonso-González, E.: Changes in the frequency of global high mountain rain-on-snow events due to climate warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 094021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0dde, 2021.
Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., and Dalezios, N. R.: Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results, J. Hydrol., 259, 163–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00580-7, 2002.
Lundquist, J. D., Dickerson-Lange, S. E., Lutz, J. A., and Cristea, N. C.: Lower forest density enhances snow retention in regions with warmer winters: A global framework developed from plot-scale observations and modeling, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6356–6370, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20504, 2013.
Lynn, E., Cuthbertson, A., He, M., Vasquez, J. P., Anderson, M. L., Coombe, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., and Hatchett, B. J.: Technical note: Precipitation-phase partitioning at landscape scales to regional scales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5317–5328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5317-2020, 2020.
Marks, D., Link, T., Winstral, A., and Garen, D.: Simulating snowmelt processes during rain-on-snow over a semi-arid mountain basin, Ann. Glaciol., 32, 195–202, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819751, 2001.
Martin, E., Brun, E., and Durand, Y.: Sensitivity of the French Alps snow cover to the variation of climatic variables, Ann. Geophys., 12, 469–477, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-994-0469-6, 1994.
Marty, C., Schlögl, S., Bavay, M., and Lehning, M.: How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps, The Cryosphere, 11, 517–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-517-2017, 2017.
Matiu, M., Crespi, A., Bertoldi, G., Carmagnola, C. M., Marty, C., Morin, S., Schöner, W., Cat Berro, D., Chiogna, G., De Gregorio, L., Kotlarski, S., Majone, B., Resch, G., Terzago, S., Valt, M., Beozzo, W., Cianfarra, P., Gouttevin, I., Marcolini, G., Notarnicola, C., Petitta, M., Scherrer, S. C., Strasser, U., Winkler, M., Zebisch, M., Cicogna, A., Cremonini, R., Debernardi, A., Faletto, M., Gaddo, M., Giovannini, L., Mercalli, L., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Sušnik, A., Trenti, A., Urbani, S., and Weilguni, V.: Observed snow depth trends in the European Alps: 1971 to 2019, The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021.
Mazurkiewicz, A. B., Callery, D. G., and McDonnell, J. J.: Assessing the controls of the snow energy balance and water available for runoff in a rain-on-snow environment, J. Hydrol., 354, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.12.027, 2008.
Mazzotti, G., Essery, R., Webster, C., Malle, J., and Jonas, T.: Process-Level Evaluation of a Hyper-Resolution Forest Snow Model Using Distributed Multisensor Observations, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2020WR027572, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027572, 2020.
McCabe, G. J., Clark, M. P., and Hay, L. E.: Rain-on-snow events in the Western United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-3-319, 2007.
Mooney, P. A. and Li, L.: Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 064039, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb, 2021.
Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J. I., Stoffel, M., and Beniston, M.: Rain-on-snow events in Switzerland: Recent observations and projections for the 21st century, Clim. Res., 71, 111–125, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01435, 2016.
Morán-Tejeda, E., Fassnacht, S. R., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., López-Moreno, J. I., García, C., Alonso-González, E., and Collados-Lara, A. J.: Hydro-meteorological characterization of major floods in Spanish mountain rivers, Water-Sui., 11, 2641, https://doi.org/10.3390/W11122641, 2019.
Morin, S., Horton, S., Techel, F., Bavay, M., Coléou, C., Fierz, C., Gobiet, A., Hagenmuller, P., Lafaysse, M., Ližar, M., Mitterer, C., Monti, F., Müller, K., Olefs, M., Snook, J. S., van Herwijnen, A., and Vionnet, V.: Application of physical snowpack models in support of operational avalanche hazard forecasting: A status report on current implementations and prospects for the future, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 170, 102910, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.102910, 2020.
Musselman, K. N., Clark, M. P., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., and Rasmussen, R.: Slower snowmelt in a warmer world, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 214–219, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3225, 2017a.
Musselman, K. N., Molotch, N. P., and Margulis, S. A.: Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California, The Cryosphere, 11, 2847–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2847-2017, 2017b.
Musselman, K. N., Lehner, F., Ikeda, K., Clark, M. P., Prein, A. F., Liu, C., Barlage, M., and Rasmussen, R.: Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over Western North America, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 808–812, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4, 2018.
Navarro-Serrano, F. and López-Moreno, J. I.: Análisis espacio-temporal de los eventos de nevadas en el pirineo Español y su relación con la circulación atmosférica, Cuadern. Investig./Geographical Research Letters, 43, 233–254, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3042, 2017.
Ohba, M. and Kawase, H.: Rain-on-Snow events in Japan as projected by a large ensemble of regional climate simulations, Clim. Dynam., 55, 2785–2800, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05419-8, 2020.
OPCC-CTP: Climate change in the Pyrenees: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation, Bases of knowledge for the future climate change adaptation strategy in the Pyrenees, Jaca, Spain, 147 pp., https://www.opcc-ctp.org/sites/default/files/editor/opcc-informe-en-paginas.pdf (last access: 25 December 2022), 2018
Pall, P., Tallaksen, L. M., and Stordal, F.: A Climatology of Rain-on-Snow Events for Norway, J. Climate, 32, 6995–7016, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0529.1, 2019.
Pepin, N. C., Arnone, E., Gobiet, A., Haslinger, K., Kotlarski, S., Notarnicola, C., Palazzi, E., Seibert, P., Serafin, S., Schöner, W., Terzago, S., Thornton, J. M., Vuille, M., and Adler, C.: Climate Changes and Their Elevational Patterns in the Mountains of the World, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2020RG000730, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000730, 2022.
Peña-Angulo, D., Vicente-Serrano, S., Domínguez-Castro, F., Murphy, C., Reig, F., Tramblay, Y., Trigo, R., Luna, M. Y., Turco, M., Noguera, I., Aznarez-Balta, M., Garcia-Herrera, R., Tomas-Burguera, M., and Kenawy, A.: Long-term precipitation in SouthWestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094070, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4f, 2020.
Pomeroy, J. W., Fang, X., and Rasouli, K.: Sensitivity of snow processes to warming in the Canadian Rockies, in: Proceedings of the 72nd Eastern Snow Conference, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada, 9–11 June 2015, 22–33, 2015.
Pons, M., López-Moreno, J., Rosas-Casals, M., and Jover, E.: The vulnerability of Pyrenean ski resorts to climate-induced changes in the snowpack, Clim. Change, 131, 591–605, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1400-8, 2015.
Rasouli, K., Pomeroy, J. W., and Whitfield, P. H.: Hydrological responses of headwater basins to monthly perturbed climate in the North American Cordillera, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0166.1, 2019.
Rennert, K. J., Roe, G., Putkonen, J., and Bitz, C. M.: Soil thermal and ecological impacts of rain on snow events in the circumpolar arctic, J. Climate, 22, 2302–2315, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2117.1, 2009.
Réveillet, M., Dumont, M., Gascoin, S., Lafaysse, M., Nabat, P., Ribes, A., Nheili, R., Tuzet, F., Ménégoz, M., Morin, S., Picard, G., and Ginoux, P.: Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change, Nat. Commun., 13, 5279, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32501-y, 2022.
Revuelto, J., Lecourt, G., Lafaysse, M., Zin, I., Charrois, L., Vionnet, V., Dumont, M., Rabatel, A., Six, D., Condom, T., Morin, S., Viani, A., and Sirguey, P.: Multi-criteria evaluation of snowpack simulations in complex alpine terrain using satellite and in situ observations, Remote Sens.-Basel, 10, 1171, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081171, 2018.
Roe, G. H. and Baker, M. B.: Microphysical and Geometrical Controls on the Pattern of Orographic Precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 861–880, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3619.1, 2006.
Sanmiguel-Vallelado, A., McPhee, J., Esmeralda Ojeda Carreño, P., Morán-Tejeda, E., Julio Camarero, J., and López-Moreno, J. I.: Sensitivity of forest–snow interactions to climate forcing: Local variability in a Pyrenean valley, J. Hydrol., 605, 127311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127311, 2022.
Schirmer, M., Winstral, A., Jonas, T., Burlando, P., and Peleg, N.: Natural climate variability is an important aspect of future projections of snow water resources and rain-on-snow events, The Cryosphere, 16, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, 2022.
Schöner, W., Koch, R., Matulla, C., Marty, C., and Tilg, A. M.: Spatio-temporal patterns of snow depth within the Swiss-Austrian Alps for the past half century (1961 to 2012) and linkages to climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1589–1603, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5902, 2019.
Serrano-Notivoli, R., Mora, D., Ollero, A., Sánchez-Fabre, M., Sanz, P., and Saz, M.: Floodplain occupation and flooding in the central Pyrenees, Cuadern. Investig./Geographical Research Letters, 43, 309–328, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3057, 2017.
Serrano-Notivoli, R., Buisan, S. T., Abad-Pérez, L. M., Sierra-Álvarez, E., Rodríguez-Ballesteros, C., López-Moreno, J. I., and Cuadrat, J. M.: Tendencias recientes en precipitación, temperatura y nieve de alta montaña en los Pirineos (Refugio de Góriz, Huesca), in: El clima: aire, agua, tierra y fuego, Asociación Española de Climatología y Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica – Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain, 267, 1060–280, 2018.
Shanley, J. B. and Chalmers, A.: The effect of frozen soil on snowmelt runoff at Sleepers River, Hydrol. Process., 13, 1843–1857, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199909)13:12/13<1843::AID-HYP879>3.0.CO;2-G, 1999.
Singh, P., Spitzbart, G., Hübl, H., and Weinmeister, H. W.: Hydrological response of snowpack under rain-on-snow events: a field study, J. Hydrol., 202, 1–20, 1997.
Spandre, P., François, H., Verfaillie, D., Lafaysse, M., Déqué, M., Eckert, N., George, E., and Morin, S.: Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 8043, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8, 2019.
Stewart, I. T.: Changes in snowpack and snowmelt runoff for key mountain regions, Hydrol. Process., 23, 78–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7128, 2009.
Surfleet, C. G. and Tullos, D.: Variability in effect of climate change on rain-on-snow peak flow events in a temperate climate, J. Hydrol., 479, 24–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.021, 2013.
Szczypta, C., Gascoin, S., Houet, T., Hagolle, O., Dejoux, J.-F., Vigneau, C., and Fanise, P.: Impact of climate and land cover changes on snow cover in a small Pyrenean catchment, J. Hydrol., 521, 84–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.060, 2015.
Verfaillie, D., Lafaysse, M., Déqué, M., Eckert, N., Lejeune, Y., and Morin, S.: Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps, The Cryosphere, 12, 1249–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018, 2018.
Vernay, M., Lafaysse, M., Monteiro, D., Hagenmuller, P., Nheili, R., Samacoïts, R., Verfaillie, D., and Morin, S.: The S2M meteorological and snow cover reanalysis over the French mountainous areas: description and evaluation (1958–2021), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022 (data available at: https://www.aeris-data.fr/landing-page/?uuid=865730e8-edeb-4c6b-ae58-80f95166509b#v2020.2, last access: 16 December 2022).
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Domínguez-Castro, F., El Kenawy, A., and Azorín-Molina, C.: An updated review on recent trends in observational surface atmospheric variables and their extremes over Spain, Cuadern. Investig./Geographical Research Letters, 43, 209–232, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3134, 2017.
Vidaller, I., Revuelto, J., Izagirre, E., Rojas-Heredia, F., Alonso-González, E., Gascoin, S., René, P., Berthier, E., Rico, I., Moreno, A., Serrano, E., Serreta, A., and López-Moreno, J. I.: Toward an ice-free mountain range: Demise of Pyrenean glaciers during 2011–2020, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094339, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094339, 2021.
Viviroli, D., Archer, D. R., Buytaert, W., Fowler, H. J., Greenwood, G. B., Hamlet, A. F., Huang, Y., Koboltschnig, G., Litaor, M. I., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorentz, S., Schädler, B., Schreier, H., Schwaiger, K., Vuille, M., and Woods, R.: Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 471–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-471-2011, 2011.
Westermann, S., Boike, J., Langer, M., Schuler, T. V., and Etzelmüller, B.: Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost, The Cryosphere, 5, 945–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-945-2011, 2011.
Wipf, S. and Rixen, C.: A review of snow manipulation experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems, Polar Res., 29, 95–109, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-8369.2010.00153.x, 2010.
Wu, X., Che, T., Li, X., Wang, N., and Yang, X.: Slower Snowmelt in Spring Along With Climate Warming Across the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12331–12339, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079511, 2018.
Würzer, S., Jonas, T., Wever, N., and Lehning, M.: Influence of initial snowpack properties on runoffformation during rain-on-snow events, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 1801–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0181.1, 2016.
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint