Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
Research article
 | 
10 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 10 Apr 2024

Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change

Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

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Aleshina, M., Semenov, V., and Chernokulsky, A.: A link between surface air temperature and extreme precipitation over Russia from station and reanalysis data, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 105004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1cba, 2021. a
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Arun, A., Haque, M. M., Lyon, C., Sayed, T., Washington, S., Loewenherz, F., Akers, D., Bandy, M., Bahl, V., Ananthanarayanan, G., and Shu, Y.: Leading Pedestrian Intervals – Yay or Nay? A Before-After Evaluation using Traffic Conflict-Based Peak Over Threshold Approach, https://bellevuewa.gov/sites/default/files/media/pdf_document/2022/leading-pedestrian-intervals-research-paper-010322.pdf (last access: 18 March 2024), 2022. a
Bahrami, M. and Mahmoudi, M. R.: Long-term temporal trend analysis of climatic parameters using polynomial regression analysis over the Fasa Plain, southern Iran, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 134, 1–12, 2022. a
Bentzien, S. and Friederichs, P.: Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1924–1934, 2014. a
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Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
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