Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
Research article
 | 
10 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 10 Apr 2024

Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change

Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Related authors

Temporal dynamic vulnerability – impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Andreas Trojand, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2331–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
Short summary
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Extreme precipitation and flooding in Berlin under climate change and effects of selected grey and blue-green measures
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, 2025
Short summary
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Aleshina, M., Semenov, V., and Chernokulsky, A.: A link between surface air temperature and extreme precipitation over Russia from station and reanalysis data, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 105004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1cba, 2021. a
Ambrosino, C., Chandler, R. E., and Todd, M. C.: Southern African monthly rainfall variability: An analysis based on generalized linear models, J. Climate, 24, 4600–4617, 2011. a
Arun, A., Haque, M. M., Lyon, C., Sayed, T., Washington, S., Loewenherz, F., Akers, D., Bandy, M., Bahl, V., Ananthanarayanan, G., and Shu, Y.: Leading Pedestrian Intervals – Yay or Nay? A Before-After Evaluation using Traffic Conflict-Based Peak Over Threshold Approach, https://bellevuewa.gov/sites/default/files/media/pdf_document/2022/leading-pedestrian-intervals-research-paper-010322.pdf (last access: 18 March 2024), 2022. a
Bahrami, M. and Mahmoudi, M. R.: Long-term temporal trend analysis of climatic parameters using polynomial regression analysis over the Fasa Plain, southern Iran, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 134, 1–12, 2022. a
Bentzien, S. and Friederichs, P.: Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1924–1934, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint