Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024
Research article
 | 
10 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 10 Apr 2024

Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change

Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Related authors

Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
Short summary
Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data
D. J. Befort, M. Fischer, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, A. Ganske, G. Rosenhagen, and H. Heinrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1437–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1437-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1437-2015, 2015

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
Short summary
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
Short summary
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
Short summary
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Aleshina, M., Semenov, V., and Chernokulsky, A.: A link between surface air temperature and extreme precipitation over Russia from station and reanalysis data, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 105004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1cba, 2021. a
Ambrosino, C., Chandler, R. E., and Todd, M. C.: Southern African monthly rainfall variability: An analysis based on generalized linear models, J. Climate, 24, 4600–4617, 2011. a
Arun, A., Haque, M. M., Lyon, C., Sayed, T., Washington, S., Loewenherz, F., Akers, D., Bandy, M., Bahl, V., Ananthanarayanan, G., and Shu, Y.: Leading Pedestrian Intervals – Yay or Nay? A Before-After Evaluation using Traffic Conflict-Based Peak Over Threshold Approach, https://bellevuewa.gov/sites/default/files/media/pdf_document/2022/leading-pedestrian-intervals-research-paper-010322.pdf (last access: 18 March 2024), 2022. a
Bahrami, M. and Mahmoudi, M. R.: Long-term temporal trend analysis of climatic parameters using polynomial regression analysis over the Fasa Plain, southern Iran, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 134, 1–12, 2022. a
Bentzien, S. and Friederichs, P.: Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1924–1934, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint