Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
Research article
 | 
14 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 14 Dec 2023

Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling

Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy

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Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
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