Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Research article
 | 
31 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 31 Jul 2023

Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models

Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer

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Latest update: 14 Aug 2026
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Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
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