Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023
Research article
 | 
21 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 21 Jul 2023

Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Cited articles

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Alma, Ö. G.: Comparison of Robust Regression Methods in Linear Regression, Int. J. Contemp. Math. Sciences, 6, 409–421, 2011. 
Alsaad, H., Hartmann, M., Hilbel, R., and Voelker, C.: The potential of facade greening in mitigating the effects of heatwaves in Central European cities, Build. Environ., 216, 109021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109021, 2022. 
Bacco, M. D. and Scorzini, A. R.: Recent changes in temperature extremes across the north-eastern region of Italy and their relationship with large-scale circulation, Clim. Res., 81, 167–185, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01614, 2020. 
Bonat, W. H. and Kokonendji, C. C.: Flexible Tweedie regression models for continuous data, J. Stat. Comput. Simul., 87, 2138–2152, https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2017.1318876, 2017. 
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We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
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