Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
Research article
20 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 20 Jun 2023

Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru

Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton

Related authors

Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Anticipating a risky future: LSTM models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gomez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
EGUsphere,,, 2023
Short summary
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890,,, 2023
Short summary
Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373,,, 2024
Short summary
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329,,, 2024
Short summary
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197,,, 2024
Short summary
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161,,, 2024
Short summary
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Adriano, B., Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Estrada, M., and Jimenez, C.: Scenarios of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using Tsunami Fragility Functions, Journal of Disaster Research, 9, 968–975,, 2014. 
Aguilar, Z., Lazares, F., Alarcon, S., Quispe, S., Uriarte, R., and Calderon, D.: Actualización de la Microzonificación Sísmica de la ciudad de Lima, International Symposium for CISMID 25th Anniversary 17–18 August, 2012, Lima, Peru, 2013. 
Aguilar, Z., Tarazona, J., Vergaray, L., Barrantes, J., Uriarte, R., and Calderon, D.: Site response analysis and its comparison with the peruvian seismic design spectrum, TECNIA, 29, 91–97,, 2019. 
Allen, T. I. and Wald, D. J.: Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe, Open-File Report 2007-1357,, 2007. 
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Final-revised paper