Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 20 Jun 2023
| 20 Jun 2023
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Massimiliano Pittore
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
Nils Brinckmann
eScience Centre, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Agrícola, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001 sede Bogotá, Colombia
Sergio Medina
Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Agrícola, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001 sede Bogotá, Colombia
Nicola Tarque
Gerdis Research Group, Civil Eng. Division, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Av. Universitaria 1801, Lima 15088, Peru
Department of Continuum Mechanics and Structures, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Calle Prof. Aranguren 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Fabrice Cotton
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3755–3787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Dino Bindi, Riccardo Zaccarelli, Angelo Strollo, Domenico Di Giacomo, Andres Heinloo, Peter Evans, Fabrice Cotton, and Frederik Tilmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1733–1745, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The size of an earthquake is often described by a single number called the magnitude. Among the possible magnitude scales, the seismic moment (Mw) and the radiated energy (Me) scales are based on physical parameters describing the rupture process. Since these two magnitude scales provide complementary information that can be used for seismic hazard assessment and for seismic risk mitigation, we complement the Mw catalog disseminated by the GEOFON Data Centre with Me values.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Audrey Bonnelye, Pierre Dick, Marco Bohnhoff, Fabrice Cotton, Rüdiger Giese, Jan Henninges, Damien Jougnot, Grzegorz Kwiatek, and Stefan Lüth
Adv. Geosci., 58, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The overall objective of the CHENILLE project is to performed an in-situ experiment in the Underground Reaserch Laboratory of Tournemire (Southern France) consisting of hydraulic and thermal stimulation of a fault zone. This experiment is monitored with extensive geophysical means (passive seismic, active seismic, distributed fiber optics for temperature measurements) in order to unravel the physical processes taking place during the stimulation for a better charactization of fault zones.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
S. Tyagunov, M. Pittore, M. Wieland, S. Parolai, D. Bindi, K. Fleming, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1625-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: a spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood exposure of environmental assets
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Bonifácio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The "Ready, Set & Go!" system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Cited articles
Adriano, B., Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Estrada, M., and Jimenez, C.: Scenarios
of Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Probability in Callao Region, Peru Using
Tsunami Fragility Functions, Journal of Disaster Research, 9, 968–975,
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0968, 2014.
Aguilar, Z., Lazares, F., Alarcon, S., Quispe, S., Uriarte, R., and
Calderon, D.: Actualización de la Microzonificación Sísmica de
la ciudad de Lima, International Symposium for CISMID 25th Anniversary
17–18 August, 2012, Lima, Peru, 2013.
Aguilar, Z., Tarazona, J., Vergaray, L., Barrantes, J., Uriarte, R., and
Calderon, D.: Site response analysis and its comparison with the peruvian
seismic design spectrum, TECNIA, 29, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v29i2.700, 2019.
Allen, T. I. and Wald, D. J.: Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic
Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe, Open-File Report 2007-1357, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20071357, 2007.
Antoncecchi, I., Ciccone, F., Dialuce, G., Grandi, S., Terlizzeze, F., Di
Bucci, D., Dolce, M., Argnani, A., Mercorella, A., Pellegrini, C., Rovere,
M., Armigliato, A., Pagnoni, G., Paparo, M. A., Tinti, S., Zaniboni, F.,
Basili, R., Cavallaro, D., Coltelli, M., Firetto Carlino, M., Lipparini, L.,
Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Romano, F., Scarfì, L., Tiberti, M. M.,
Volpe, M., Fedorik, J., Toscani, G., Borzi, B., Faravelli, M., Bozzoni, F.,
Pascale, V., Quaroni, D., Germagnoli, F., Belliazzi, S., Del Zoppo, M., Di
Ludovico, M., Lignola, G. P., and Prota, A.: Progetto SPOT - Sismicità
Potenzialmente Innescabile Offshore e Tsunami: Report integrato di fine
progetto, Version 1, Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3732887, 2020.
Arrighi, C., Tanganelli, M., Cristofaro, M. T., Cardinali, V., Marra, A.,
Castelli, F., and De Stefano, M.: Multi-risk assessment in a historical
city, Nat. Hazards, online first, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05125-6, 2022.
Attary, N., van de Lindt, J. W., Unnikrishnan, V. U., Barbosa, A. R., and
Cox, D. T.: Methodology for Development of Physics-Based Tsunami
Fragilities, J. Struct. Eng., 143, 04016223,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001715, 2017.
Attary, N., Van De Lindt, J. W., Barbosa, A. R., Cox, D. T., and
Unnikrishnan, V. U.: Performance-Based Tsunami Engineering for Risk
Assessment of Structures Subjected to Multi-Hazards: Tsunami following
Earthquake, J. Earthq. Eng., 25, 2065–2084, https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2019.1616335, 2021.
Baggio, C., Bernardini, A., Colozza, R., Corazza, L., Della Orsini, M., Di
Pascuale, G., Dolce, M., Goretti, A., Martinelli, A., Orsini, G., Papa, F.,
and Zuccaro, G.: Field Manual for post-earthquake damage and safety
assessment and short term countermeasures (AeDES), EUR 22868 EN – Joint
Research Centre – Institute for the Protection and Security of the
Citizen, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,
Luxembourg, 100 pp., https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC37914 (last access: 2 June 2023), 2007.
Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M.
A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I.,
Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson,
K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva,
J., Taroni, M., Del Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P.,
Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B.,
González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoğlu,
U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon,
A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R.,
Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., and Vyhmeister, E.:
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps,
Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 628772, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.628772, 2021.
Belliazzi, S., Lignola, G. P., Di Ludovico, M., and Prota, A.: Preliminary
tsunami analytical fragility functions proposal for Italian coastal
residential masonry buildings, Structures, 31, 68–79,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2021.01.059, 2021.
Bernal, G. A., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Zuloaga, D., Tristancho, J., González, D., and Cardona, O.-D.: Integration of Probabilistic and
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency
Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia, Int. J. Disast. Risk Sc., 8, 270–283, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0135-8, 2017.
Bonacho, J. and Oliveira, C. S.: Multi-hazard analysis of earthquake shaking
and tsunami impact, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 31, 275–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.05.023, 2018.
Brinckmann, N., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., and Rüster, M.: DEUS:
Damage-Exposure-Update-Service, Version 1.0, GFZ Data Services [code], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.011, 2021.
Brzev, S., Scawthor, C., Charleson, A. W., Allen, L., Greene, M., Jaiswal, K., and Silva, V.: GEM building taxonomy version 2.0, GEM Foundation, Pavia, https://doi.org/10.13117/GEM.EXP-MOD.TR2013.02, 2013.
Buitinck, L., Louppe, G., Blondel, M., Pedregosa, F., Mueller, A., Grisel,
O., Niculae, V., Prettenhofer, P., Gramfort, A., Grobler, J., Layton, R.,
VanderPlas, J., Joly, A., Holt, B., and Varoquaux, G.: API design for
machine learning software: experiences from the scikit-learn project, in:
European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practices of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, Prague, Czech Republic, September 2013, 108–122, https://inria.hal.science/hal-00856511 (last access: 2 June 2023), 2013.
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., and Deierlein, G.: Regional Multiseverity
Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake
Scenario in Lima, Peru, Earthq. Spectra, 34, 1739–1761,
https://doi.org/10.1193/080617EQS154M, 2018.
Charvet, I., Macabuag, J., and Rossetto, T.: Estimating Tsunami-Induced
Building Damage through Fragility Functions: Critical Review and Research
Needs, Frontiers in Built Environment, 3, 36,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00036, 2017.
Cremen, G., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Modelling and quantifying
tomorrow's risks from natural hazards, Sci. Total Environ., 817, 152552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152552, 2022.
Dabbeek, J. and Silva, V.: Modeling the residential building stock in the
Middle East for multi-hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 100,
781–810, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03842-7, 2020.
Dabbeek, J., Silva, V., Galasso, C., and Smith, A.: Probabilistic earthquake
and flood loss assessment in the Middle East, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 49, 101662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101662, 2020.
Daniell, J. E., Schaefer, A. M., and Wenzel, F.: Losses Associated with
Secondary Effects in Earthquakes, Frontiers in Built Environment, 3, 30,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2017.00030, 2017.
De Angeli, S., Malamud, B. D., Rossi, L., Taylor, F. E., Trasforini, E., and
Rudari, R.: A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis,
Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 102829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829, 2022.
Del Zoppo, M., Wijesundara, K., Rossetto, T., Dias, P., Baiguera, M.,
Ludovico, M. D., Thamboo, J., and Prota, A.: Influence of exterior infill
walls on the performance of RC frames under tsunami loads: Case study of
school buildings in Sri Lanka, Eng. Struct., 234, 111920,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.111920, 2021.
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Daniell, J. E.,
Gill, J. C., and Ward, P. J.: Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive
Disasters, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001425, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001425, 2020.
Dorbath, L., Cisternas, A., and Dorbath, C.: Assessment of the size of large and great historical earthquakes in Peru, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 80, 551–576, 1990.
FEMA: Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology, Federal Emergency Management
Agency, Washington, https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/fema_hazus_flood-model_user-manual_2.1.pdf (last access: 2 June 2023), 2003.
FEMA: HAZUS Tsunami Model Technical Guidance, Federal Emergency Management
Agency, Washington, D.C.,
https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/fema_hazus_tsunami_technical-manual_4.0.pdf (last access: 2 June 2023), 2017.
Figueiredo, R., Romão, X., and Paupério, E.: Component-based flood
vulnerability modelling for cultural heritage buildings, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 61, 102323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102323, 2021.
Frucht, E., Salamon, A., Rozelle, J., Levi, T., Calvo, R., Avirav, V.,
Burns, J. N., Zuzak, C., Gal, E., Trapper, P., Galanti, B., and Bausch, D.:
Tsunami loss assessment based on Hazus approach – The Bat Galim, Israel,
case study, Eng. Geol., 289, 106175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106175, 2021.
Gallina, V., Torresan, S., Critto, A., Sperotto, A., Glade, T., and
Marcomini, A.: A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards:
Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment, J. Environ. Manage., 168, 123–132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.011, 2016.
Gehl, P. and D'Ayala, D.: System loss assessment of bridge networks
accounting for multi-hazard interactions, Struct. Infrastruct. E., 14, 1355–1371, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2018.1434671, 2018.
Gehl, P., Quinet, C., Le Cozannet, G., Kouokam, E., and Thierry, P.: Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2409–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2409-2013, 2013.
GEM: Report on the SARA Exposure and Vulnerability Workshop in Medellin,
Colombia, Version 1.0, 47 pp., https://sara.openquake.org/_media/risk:03_2014_-_workshop_medellin_-_exposure.pdf (last access: 2 June 2023), 2014.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016.
Goda, K. and De Risi, R.: Multi-hazard loss estimation for shaking and
tsunami using stochastic rupture sources, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 28, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.002, 2018.
Goda, K., Mori, N., Yasuda, T., Prasetyo, A., Muhammad, A., and Tsujio, D.:
Cascading Geological Hazards and Risks of the 2018 Sulawesi Indonesia
Earthquake and Sensitivity Analysis of Tsunami Inundation Simulations,
Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, 261, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00261, 2019.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Brinckmann, N., and Shinde, S.:
Dynamic physical vulnerability: a Multi-risk Scenario approach from
building- single- hazard fragility- models, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18379, 2020.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Harig, S., and Pittore, M.: Customised
focus maps and resultant CVT-based aggregation entities for Lima and Callao
(Peru), Version 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.006, 2021a.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Zafrir, R., Brinckmann, N., and Pittore, M.: Residential building exposure and physical vulnerability models for ground-shaking and tsunami risk in Lima and Callao (Peru), Version 1.0., GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.007, 2021b.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Pittore, M., and Cotton, F.:
Seismic ground motion fields for six deterministic earthquake scenarios (Mw
8.5-9.0) for Lima (Peru), GFZ Data Services [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.008, 2021c.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Pittore, M., and Cotton, F.:
Spatial representation of direct loss estimates on the residential building
stock of Lima (Peru) from decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenarios on
variable resolutions exposure models, GFZ Data Services [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.009, 2021d.
Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., Harig, S., Zafrir, R., Pittore, M., Cotton, F., and Babeyko, A.: Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021e.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Medina, S., and Lizarazo-Marriaga, J.: Creation of
simplified state-dependent fragility functions through ad-hoc scaling
factors to account for previous damage in a multi-hazard risk context. An
application to flow-depth-based analytical tsunami fragility functions for
the Pacific coast of South America, GFZ Data Services [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2022.002, 2022a.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., Cotton, F., Lilienkamp, H., Simantini,
S., Aguirre, P., and Hernan, S. M.: Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic
building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models,
B. Earthq. Eng., 20, pages 2401–2438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9, 2022b.
Gómez Zapata, J. C., Pittore, M., and Lizarazo, J. M.: Probabilistic
inter-scheme compatibility matrices for multi-hazard exposure modeling. An
application using existing vulnerability models for earthquakes and tsunami
from synthetic datasets constructed using the AeDEs form through
expert-based heuristics, GFZ Data Services [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2022.003, 2022c.
Grünthal, G.: European Macroseismic Scale 1998, Centre Européen de
Géodynamique et de Séismologie, Luxembourg, 99 pp., https://doi.org/10.2312/EMS-98.full.en, 1998.
Harig, S. and Rakowsky, N.: Tsunami flow depth in Lima/Callao (Peru) caused
by six hypothetical simplified tsunami scenarios offshore Lima, GFZ Data
Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.010, 2021.
Harig, S., Immerz, A., Weniza, Griffin, J., Weber, B., Babeyko, A.,
Rakowsky, N., Hartanto, D., Nurokhim, A., Handayani, T., and Weber, R.: The
Tsunami Scenario Database of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System
(InaTEWS): Evolution of the Coverage and the Involved Modeling Approaches,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 1379–1401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02305-1, 2020.
Hill, M. and Rossetto, T.: Comparison of building damage scales and damage
descriptions for use in earthquake loss modelling in Europe, B. Earthq. Eng., 6, 335–365, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-007-9057-y, 2008.
Imamura, F., Boret, S. P., Suppasri, A., and Muhari, A.: Recent occurrences
of serious tsunami damage and the future challenges of tsunami disaster risk
reduction, Progress in Disaster Science, 1, 100009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100009, 2019.
INEI: Censos Nacionales 2007, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e
Informatica (INEI; Institute of Statistic and Informatics), Lima, Peru,
https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1136/libro.pdf (last access: 2 June 2023), 2007.
INEI: Censos Nacionales 2017, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e
Informatica (INEI; Institute of Statistic and Informatics), Lima, Peru, https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1544/ (last access: 2 June 2023), 2017.
INEI: Perú: 50 años de cambios, desafíos y oportunidades
poblacionales, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI;
Institute of Statistic and Informatics), https://www.gob.pe/institucion/inei/informes-publicaciones/
3254297-peru-50-anos-de-cambios-desafios-y-oportunidades-poblacionales (last access: 2 June 2023), 2022.
Jimenez, C., Moggiano, N., Mas, E., Adriano, B., Koshimura, S., Fujii, Y.,
and Yanagisawa, H.: Seismic Source of 1746 Callao Earthquake from
Tsunami Numerical Modeling, Journal of Disaster Research, 8, 266–273,
https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2013.p0266, 2013.
Julià, P. B. and Ferreira, T. M.: From single- to multi-hazard vulnerability and risk in Historic Urban Areas: a literature review, Nat. Hazards, 108, 93–128, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04734-5, 2021.
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of
analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat., Hazards, 64, 1925–1958,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2, 2012.
Karapetrou, S., Manakou, M., Bindi, D., Petrovic, B., and Pitilakis, K.:
“Time-building specific” seismic vulnerability assessment of a hospital RC
building using field monitoring data, Eng. Struct., 112, 114–132,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2016.01.009, 2016.
Komendantova, N., Mrzyglocki, R., Mignan, A., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Patt,
A., and Fleming, K.: Multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support tools as a
part of participatory risk governance: Feedback from civil protection
stakeholders, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 8, 50–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.006, 2014.
Kulikov, E. A., Rabinovich, A. B., and Thomson, R. E.: Estimation of Tsunami
Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile, Nat. Hazards, 35, 185–209, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4809-3, 2005.
Lagomarsino, S. and Giovinazzi, S.: Macroseismic and mechanical models for
the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings, B. Earthq. Eng., 4, 415–443, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-006-9024-z, 2006.
Lagomarsino, S., Cattari, S., and Ottonelli, D.: The heuristic vulnerability
model: fragility curves for masonry buildings, B. Earthq. Eng., 19, 3129–3163, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01063-7, 2021.
Lahcene, E., Ioannou, I., Suppasri, A., Pakoksung, K., Paulik, R., Syamsidik, S., Bouchette, F., and Imamura, F.: Characteristics of building fragility curves for seismic and non-seismic tsunamis: case studies of the 2018 Sunda Strait, 2018 Sulawesi–Palu, and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2313-2021, 2021.
Liu, B., Siu, Y. L., and Mitchell, G.: Hazard interaction analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on hazard-forming environment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-629-2016, 2016.
Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Horspool, N., Smebye, H., de
Bono, A., and Nadim, F.: Global tsunami hazard and exposure due to large
co-seismic slip, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 10, 406–418, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.003, 2014.
Maiwald, H. and Schwarz, J.: Unified damage description and risk assessment
of buildings under extreme natural hazards, Mauerwerk, 23, 95–111,
https://doi.org/10.1002/dama.201910014, 2019.
Mangalathu, S., Sun, H., Nweke, C. C., Yi, Z., and Burton, H. V.:
Classifying earthquake damage to buildings using machine learning,
Earthq. Spectra, 36, 183–208, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019878137, 2020.
Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., and Baker, J. W.: Effect of ground motion
correlation on regional seismic lossestimation: application to Lima, Peru
using across-correlated principal component analysis model, Safety,
Reliability, Risk, Resilience and Sustainability of Structures and
Infrastructure. 12th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety and Reliability,
Vienna, Austria, 2017.
Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., and Baker, J. W.: Modeling spatially correlated
spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component
analysis and geostatistics, Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 47, 1107–1123, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3007, 2018.
Marzocchi, W., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Gasparini, P., Mastellone, M. L., and
Di Ruocco, A.: Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in
Italy, Nat. Hazards, 62, 551–573, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x, 2012.
Mas, E., Paulik, R., Pakoksung, K., Adriano, B., Moya, L., Suppasri, A.,
Muhari, A., Khomarudin, R., Yokoya, N., Matsuoka, M., and Koshimura, S.:
Characteristics of Tsunami Fragility Functions Developed Using Different
Sources of Damage Data from the 2018 Sulawesi Earthquake and Tsunami, Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 2437–2455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02501-4, 2020.
Medina, S.: Zonificación de la vulnerabilidad física para
edificaciones típicas en San Andrés de Tumaco, Costa Pacífica
Colombiana, Master thesis in Civil Engineering, Master thesis, Universidad Nacional de
Colombia Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento Ingeniería Civil y
Ambiental, Bogotá, Colombia, 245 pp., 2019.
Medina, S., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Estrada, M., Koshimura, S., Mas, E., and
Adriano, B.: Tsunami analytical fragility curves for the Colombian Pacific
coast: A reinforced concrete building example, Eng. Struct., 196, 109309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.109309, 2019.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N.,
Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F.,
Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K.,
Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support
Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Montalva, G. A., Bastías, N., and Rodriguez-Marek, A.: Ground-Motion
Prediction Equation for the Chilean Subduction Zone, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 901–911, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160221, 2017.
Negulescu, C., Benaïchouche, A., Lemoine, A., Le Roy, S., and Pedreros, R.: Adjustability of exposed elements by updating their capacity for resistance after a damaging event: application to an earthquake–tsunami cascade scenario, Nat. Hazards, 104, 753–793, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04189-0, 2020.
Ordaz, M., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Huerta, B., Rodríguez, J. C., and Avelar, C.: Considering the impacts of simultaneous perils: The challenges of integrating earthquake and tsunamigenic risk, Disaster Prev. Manag., 28, 823–837, https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-09-2019-0295, 2019.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Papadopoulos, A. N. and Bazzurro, P.: Exploring probabilistic seismic risk
assessment accounting for seismicity clustering and damage accumulation:
Part II. Risk analysis, Earthq. Spectra, 37, 386–408,
https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020938816, 2021.
Park, H., Cox, D. T., and Barbosa, A. R.: Comparison of inundation depth and
momentum flux based fragilities for probabilistic tsunami damage assessment
and uncertainty analysis, Coast. Eng., 122, 10–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.01.008, 2017.
Park, H., Alam, M. S., Cox, D. T., Barbosa, A. R., and van de Lindt, J. W.:
Probabilistic seismic and tsunami damage analysis (PSTDA) of the Cascadia
Subduction Zone applied to Seaside, Oregon, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 35, 101076, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101076, 2019.
Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D.: Understanding Compound, Interconnected,
Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework, Risk Anal., 38,
2245–2257, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13128, 2018.
Petersen, M. D., Harmsen, S. C., Jaiswal, K. S., Rukstales, K. S., Luco, N.,
Haller, K. M., Mueller, C. S., and Shumway, A. M.: Seismic Hazard, Risk, and
Design for South America, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 108, 781–800, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170002, 2018.
Petrone, C., Rossetto, T., and Goda, K.: Fragility assessment of a RC
structure under tsunami actions via nonlinear static and dynamic analyses,
Eng. Struct., 136, 36–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.01.013, 2017.
Petrone, C., Rossetto, T., Baiguera, M., la Barra Bustamante, C. D., and
Ioannou, I.: Fragility functions for a reinforced concrete structure
subjected to earthquake and tsunami in sequence, Eng. Struct., 205, 110120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.110120, 2020.
Pittore, M., Haas, M., and Megalooikonomou, K. G.: Risk-Oriented, Bottom-Up
Modeling of Building Portfolios With Faceted Taxonomies, Frontiers in Built
Environment, 4, 41, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2018.00041, 2018.
Pittore, M., Haas, M., and Silva, V.: Variable resolution probabilistic
modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications,
Earthq. Spectra, 36, 321–344, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020951582, 2020.
Pittore, M., Gomez-Zapata, J. C., Brinckmann, N., and Rüster, M.:
Assetmaster and Modelprop: web services to serve building exposure models
and fragility functions for physical vulnerability to natural-hazards, Version 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.005, 2021.
Rao, A. S., Lepech, M. D., and Kiremidjian, A.: Development of
time-dependent fragility functions for deteriorating reinforced concrete
bridge piers, Struct. Infrastruct. E., 13, 67–83,
https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2016.1198401, 2017.
Rossetto, T., Petrone, C., Eames, I., De La Barra, C., Foster, A., and
Macabuag, J.: Advances in the Assessment of Buildings Subjected to
Earthquakes and Tsunami, in: Recent Advances in Earthquake Engineering in
Europe: 16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering-Thessaloniki
2018, edited by: Pitilakis, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham,
545–562, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75741-4_23, 2018.
Rossetto, T., De la Barra, C., Petrone, C., De la Llera, J. C., Vásquez, J., and Baiguera, M.: Comparative assessment of nonlinear static and dynamic
methods for analysing building response under sequential earthquake and
tsunami, Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 48, 867–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3167, 2019.
Schelske, O., Sundermann, L., and Hausmann, P.: Mind the risk - A global
ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters, Swiss Re, 2013.
Schwarz, J., Maiwald, H., Kaufmann, C., Langhammer, T., and Beinersdorf, S.:
Conceptual basics and tools to assess the multi hazard vulnerability of
existing buildings, Mauerwerk, 23, 246–264, https://doi.org/10.1002/dama.201910025, 2019.
Selva, J.: Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of
interaction among risks, Nat. Hazards, 67, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0599-9, 2013.
Silva, V., Yepes-Estrada, C., Dabbeek, J., Martins, L., and Brzev, S.:
GED4ALL: Global exposure database for multi-hazard risk analysis.
Multi-hazard exposure taxonomy, D5 - Final Report, GEM Technical Report 2018-05, GGEM Foundation, Pavia, https://riskdatalibrary.org/assets/docs/technicalReports/challengefund_phase1_exposureSchemaDevelopment_D5%20-%20Final%20report.pdf (last access: 2 June 2023), 2018.
Silva, V., Brzev, S., Scawthorn, C., Yepes, C., Dabbeek, J., and Crowley, H.: A Building Classification System for Multi-hazard Risk Assessment, Int. J. Disast. Risk Sc., 161–177, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-022-00400-x, 2022.
Suppasri, A., Mas, E., Charvet, I., Gunasekera, R., Imai, K., Fukutani, Y.,
Abe, Y., and Imamura, F.: Building damage characteristics based on surveyed
data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami, Nat. Hazards, 66, 319–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0487-8, 2013.
Suppasri, A., Charvet, I., Imai, K., and Imamura, F.: Fragility Curves Based
on Data from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Tsunami in Ishinomaki City, with Discussion
of Parameters Influencing Building Damage, Earthq. Spectra, 31, 841–868,
https://doi.org/10.1193/053013EQS138M, 2015.
Suppasri, A., Maly, E., Kitamura, M., Syamsidik, Pescaroli, G., Alexander,
D., and Imamura, F.: Cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards: A
perspective for critical infrastructure resilience and disaster risk
reduction, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 66, 102597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102597, 2021.
Tarque, N., Salsavilca, J., Yacila, J., and Camata, G.: Multi-criteria
analysis of five reinforcement options for Peruvian confined masonry walls,
Earthq. Struct., 17, 205–219, 2019.
Terzi, S., Torresan, S., Schneiderbauer, S., Critto, A., Zebisch, M., and
Marcomini, A.: Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation, J. Environ. Manage., 232, 759–771, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100, 2019.
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of
quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102881, 2019.
Trevlopoulos, K., Guéguen, P., Helmstetter, A., and Cotton, F.: Earthquake risk in reinforced concrete buildings during aftershock sequences
based on period elongation and operational earthquake forecasting,
Struct. Saf., 84, 101922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.101922, 2020.
Triantafyllou, I., Novikova, T., Charalampakis, M., Fokaefs, A., and
Papadopoulos, G. A.: Quantitative Tsunami Risk Assessment in Terms of
Building Replacement Cost Based on Tsunami Modelling and GIS Methods: The
Case of Crete Isl., Hellenic Arc, Pure Appl. Geophys., 176, 3207–3225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1984-9, 2019.
Turchi, A., Traglia, F. D., Gentile, R., Fornaciai, A., Zetti, I., and
Fanti, R.: Relative seismic and tsunami risk assessment for Stromboli Island
(Italy), Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 76, 103002, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103002, 2022.
Vamvatsikos, D., Panagopoulos, G., Kappos, A. J., Nigro, E., Rossetto, T.,
Lloyd, T. O., and Stathopoulos, T.: Structural Vulnerability Assessment
under Natural Hazards: A review, in: COST ACTION C26: Urban Habitat Constructions under Catastrophic Events, Naples, Italy, 16–18 September 2010, edited by: Mazzolani, F. M., CRC Press, http://ikee.lib.auth.gr/record/228630/?ln=en (last access: 2 June 2023), 2010.
Villar-Vega, M., Silva, V., Crowley, H., Yepes, C., Tarque, N., Acevedo, A.
B., Hube, M. A., Gustavo, C. D., and María, H. S.: Development of a
Fragility Model for the Residential Building Stock in South America,
Earthq. Spectra, 33, 581–604, https://doi.org/10.1193/010716EQS005M, 2017.
Ward, P. J., Blauhut, V., Bloemendaal, N., Daniell, J. E., de Ruiter, M. C., Duncan, M. J., Emberson, R., Jenkins, S. F., Kirschbaum, D., Kunz, M., Mohr, S., Muis, S., Riddell, G. A., Schäfer, A., Stanley, T., Veldkamp, T. I. E., and Winsemius, H. C.: Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020.
Ward, P. J., Daniell, J., Duncan, M., Dunne, A., Hananel, C., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Tijssen, A., Torresan, S., Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Sillmann, J., Couasnon, A., Koks, E., Padrón-Fumero, N., Tatman, S., Tronstad Lund, M., Adesiyun, A., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Alabaster, A., Bulder, B., Campillo Torres, C., Critto, A., Hernández-Martín, R., Machado, M., Mysiak, J., Orth, R., Palomino Antolín, I., Petrescu, E.-C., Reichstein, M., Tiggeloven, T., Van Loon, A. F., Vuong Pham, H., and de Ruiter, M. C.: Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022.
Weatherill, G., Pittore, M., Haas, M., Brinckmann, N., Rüster, M., and
Gomez-Zapata, J. C.: Shakyground: a web service to serve GMPE-based ground
motion fields, Version 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/riesgos.2021.004, 2021.
Yepes-Estrada, C., Silva, V., Valcárcel, J., Acevedo, A. B., Tarque, N.,
Hube, M. A., Coronel, G., and María, H. S.: Modeling the Residential
Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment, Earthq.
Spectra, 33, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.1193/101915EQS155DP, 2017.
Zuccaro, G., Cacace, F., Spence, R. J. S., and Baxter, P. J.: Impact of
explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 416–453, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.005, 2008.
Zuccaro, G., De Gregorio, D., and Leone, M. F.: Theoretical model for
cascading effects analyses, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 30, 199–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.019, 2018.
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint