Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
Research article
 | 
20 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 20 Apr 2023

Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin

Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
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