Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 20 Apr 2023
| 20 Apr 2023
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
Min Li
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
Mingfeng Zhang
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
Runxiang Cao
College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China
Yidi Sun
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
Xiyuan Deng
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing, 210029, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Hongwei Liu, Jiufu Liu, Wenzhong Wang, Xing Min, Hao Zheng, Xiyuan Deng, and Niu Wang
Proc. IAHS, 383, 85–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-85-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-85-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the hydrometric methods in the high-altitude area, and learn more about the hydrological mechanism in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a series of observation research were carried out in the Niyang River watershed, a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River. The applicability of the hydrometric methods and instruments were discussed according to the monitoring situation. Based on the δD, δ18O, and the geochemical observed dataset, the runoff composition characteristics were analyzed.
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at catchment scale and in a large basin context
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Detection of flooding by overflows of the drainage network: Application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000x speedups. The model also generalizes to larger, more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 flood killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2458, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Cited articles
Abbasi, A., Khalili K., Behmanesh, J., and Shirzad, A.: Estimation of ARIMA
model parameters for drought prediction using the genetic algorithm, Arab.
J. Geosci., 14, 841–841, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07140-0, 2021.
Aghelpour, P. and Varshavian, V.: Forecasting Different Types of Droughts Simultaneously Using Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI), MLP Neural Network, and Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm (ICA),
Complexity, 2021, 6610228, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6610228, 2021.
Ahnadi, M.: Climatic drought forecasting using artificial neural network in
Hamedan region, New York Science Journal, 4, 15–19, https://doi.org/10.7537/marsnys040811.03, 2011.
Alquraish, M. A., Abuhasel, K. S., and Alqahtani, A. K.: SPI-Based Hybrid
Hidden Markov–GA, ARIMA–GA, and ARIMA–GA–ANN Models for Meteorological
Drought Forecasting, Sustainability, 13, 12576–12576,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212576, 2021.
Behzad, A. and Hamid, M.: Revisiting hydrological drought propagation and
recovery considering water quantity and quality, Hydrol. Process., 33, 1492–1505, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13417, 2019.
Bishara, A. J. and Hittner, J. B.: Testing the significance of a
correlation with nonnormal data: comparison of Pearson, Spearman, transformation, and resampling approaches, Psychol. Methods, 17,
399–417, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0028087, 2012.
Bonaccorso, B., Cancelliere, A., and Rossi, G.: Probabilistic forecasting of
drought class transitions in Sicily (Italy) using Standardized Precipitation
Index and North Atlantic Oscillation Index, J. Hydrol., 526, 136–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.070, 2015.
Cammalleri, C. and Vogt, J. V.: Non-stationarity in MODIS fAPAR
time-series and its impact on operational drought detection, Int. J. Remote Sens., 40, 1428–1444, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1524603, 2018.
Cancelliere, A., Di Mauro, G., and Bonaccorso, B.: Drought forecasting using the standardized precipitation index, Water Resour. Manage., 21, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9062-y, 2007.
Chang, G. B., Zhang, S. B., and Liu, Z. P.: Understanding the adjusment from
an information theoretic perspective, Geomatics and Information Science of
Wuhan University, 2022, 1–17,
https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1676.TN.20211125.1422.006.html (last access: 25 November 2021), 2022 (in Chinese).
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., Chaumont, D., and Braun, M.: Performance and
uncertainty evaluation of empirical downscaling methods in quantifying the
climate change impacts on hydrology over two North American river basins,
J. Hydrol., 479, 200–214, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.062, 2013.
Chen, X., Han, R. G., Feng, P., and Wang, Y. J.: Combined effects of
predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in
the Luanhe River basin, China, Nat. Hazards, 2021, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04992-3, 2021.
Dehghani, M., Saghafian, B., and Zargar, M.: Probabilistic hydrological drought index forecasting based on meteorological drought index using Archimedean copulas, Hydrol. Res., 50, 1230–1250, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.051, 2019.
Ding, Y. B., Xu, J. T., Wang, X. W., Cai, H. J., Zhou, Z. Q., Sun, Y. N., and Shi, H. Y.: Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China, J. Environ. Manag., 283, 111980,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.111980, 2021.
Dixit, S. and Jayakumar, K. V.: A Non-stationary and Probabilistic Approach
for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula
Construction (PCC) Model, Water Resour. Manag., 36, 1217–1236, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03069-5, 2022.
Fendeková, M., Gauster, T., Labudová, L., Vrablíková, D., Danáčová, Z., Fendek, M., and Pekárová, P.: Analysing 21st century meteorological and hydrological drought events in Slovakia, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 66, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2018-0026, 2018.
Fuentes, I., Padarian, J., and Vervoort, R. W.: Spatial and Temporal Global
Patterns of Drought Propagation, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10,
788248, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.788248, 2022.
Gong, H. N., Xie, B. T., and Wang J. R.: Long-term prediction of extreme
response of deepwater floating platform based on environmental contour
method, Ocean Eng., 39, 28–38,
https://doi.org/10.16483/j.issn.1005-9865.2021.05.003, 2021 (in Chinese).
Jehanzaib, M., Shah, S. A., Yoo, J., and Kim, T.-W.: Investigating the
impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought using
non-stationary approaches, J. Hydrol., 588, 125052,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125052, 2020.
Kolachian, R. and Saghafian, B.: Hydrological drought class early warning
using support vector machines and rough sets, Environ. Earth Sci., 80, 390–390, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09536-3, 2021.
Koudahe, K., Koffi, D., Kayode, J. A., Awokola, S. O., and Adebola, A. A.:
Impact of Climate Variability on Crop Yields in Southern Togo, Environment
Pollution and Climate Change, 2, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.4172/2573-458X.1000148, 2018.
Li, J. Z., Wang, Y. X., Li, S. F., and Hu, R.: A Nonstationary Standardized
Precipitation Index incorporating climate indices as covariates, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 12082–12095, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023920, 2015.
Li, L. C., Yao, N., Li, Y., Liu, D. L., Wang, B., and Ayantobo, O. O.: Future
projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China,
Atmos. Res., 217, 150–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.019, 2018.
Li, X., Fang, G. H., Wen, X., Xu, M., and Zhang, Y.: Characteristics
analysis of drought at multiple spatiotemporal scale and assessment of CMIP6
performance over the Huaihe River Basin, Journal of Hydrology: Regional
Studies, 41, 101–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101103, 2022.
Li, X. X., Ma, X. X., Li, X. D., and Zhang, W. J.: Method Consideration of
Variation Diagnosis and Design Value Calculation of Flood Sequence in Yiluo
River Basin, China, Water, 12, 2722–2722, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102722, 2020.
Malede, D. A., Agumassie, T. A., Kosgei, J. R., Linh, N. T. T., and Andualem,
T. G.: Analysis of rainfall and streamflow trend and variability over Birr
River watershed, Abbay basin, Ethiopia, Environmental Challenges, 7,
100528, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100528, 2022.
Mallya, G., Tripathi, S., Kirshner, S., and Govindaraju, R. S.: Probabilistic
Assessment of Drought Characteristics Using Hidden Markov Model, J. Hydrol. Eng., 18, 834–845, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000699, 2013.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought
frequency and duration to time scale, in: Proceedings of the Eighth
Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 179–184, 1993.
Moghimi, M. M., Zarei, A. R., and Mahmoudi, M. R.: Seasonal drought
forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI
index, J. Water Clim. Change, 11, 633–654, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.009, 2020.
Mokhtarzad, M., Eskandari, F., Jamshidi Vanjani, N., and Arabasadi, A.: Drought forecasting by ANN, ANFIS, and SVM and comparison of the models, Environ. Earth Sci., 76, 729–729, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-7064-0, 2017.
Natsagdorj, E., Renchin, T., Maeyer, P. D., and Darkhijav, B.: Spatial
Distribution of Soil Moisture in Mongolia Using SMAP and MODIS Satellite
Data: A Time Series Model (2010–2025), Remote Sensing., 13, 347–347,
https://doi.org/10.3390/RS13030347, 2021.
Oertel, M., Meza, F. J., Gironás, J., Scott, C. A., Rojas, F., and Pineda-Pablos, N.: Drought Propagation in Semi-Arid River Basins in Latin
America: Lessons from Mexico to the Southern Cone, Water, 10, 1564–1564, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111564, 2018.
Onyutha, C.: On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale:
Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses, Revisited Concepts, and a New Method to
Yield Non-Parametric Indices, Hydrology, 4, 48–48,
https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4040048, 2017.
Ren, W., Wang, Y., Li, J., Feng, P., and Smith, R. J.: Drought forecasting in
Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 130, 1133–1148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1952-1, 2017.
Rezaeianzadeh, M., Stein, A., and Cox, J. P.: Drought Forecasting using Markov Chain Model and Artificial Neural Networks, Water Resour. Manag., 30, 2245–2259, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1283-0, 2016.
Shukla, S. and Wood, A. W.: Use of a standardized runoff index for
characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487, 2008.
Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S., Pavlović, D., and
Despotović, J.: A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological
projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe),
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 65, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241, 2020.
Vicente-Serrano, S., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J.: A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, J. Climate, 23, 1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2010.
Wang, M., Jiang, S., Ren, L., Xu, C.-Y., Menzel, L., Yuan, F., Xu, Q., Liu,
Y., and Yang, X.: Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on drought propagation via a natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method, J. Hydrol., 603, 126913, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126913, 2021.
Wang, Y., Li, J., Feng, P., and Chen, F.: Effects of large-scale climate
patterns and human activities on hydrological drought: a case study in the
Luanhe River basin, China, Nat. Hazards, 76, 1687–1710,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1564-y, 2015.
Wang, Y., Li, J., Feng, P., and Hu, R.: Analysis of drought characteristics
over Luanhe River basin using the joint deficit index, J. Water Clim. Change, 7, 340–352, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.108, 2016.
Wang, Y., Zhang, T., Chen, X., Li, J., and Feng, P.: Spatial and temporal
characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 131, 1369–1385, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2059-z, 2018.
Wang, Y., Duan, L., Liu, T., Li, J., and Feng, P.: A Non-stationary
Standardized Streamflow Index for hydrological drought using climate and
human-induced indices as covariates, Sci. Total Environ., 699, 134278, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134278, 2020.
Wang, Y., Peng, T., Lin, Q., Singh, V., Dong, X., Chen, C., Liu, J., Chang,
W., and Wang, G.: A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index
Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates,
Water Resour. Manag., 36, 2433–2454, https://doi.org/10.1007/S11269-022-03151-Y, 2022.
Xu, Y., Zhang, X., Wang, Xiao., Hao, Z., Singh, V., and Hao, F.: Propagation
from meteorological drought to hydrological drought under the impact of
human activities: A case study in northern China, J. Hydrol., 579, 124147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124147, 2019.
Yan, X., Bao, Z., Zhang, J., Wang, G., He, R., and Liu, C.: Quantifying
contributions of climate change and local human activities to runoff decline
in the upper reaches of the Luanhe River basin, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 28, 67–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2018.11.002, 2018.
Zhang, T., Li, J., Hu, R., Wang, Y., and Feng, P.: Drought class transition analysis through different models: a case study in North China, Water Supply, 17, 138–150, https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.123, 2017.
Zhao, G., Gao, H. L., Kao, S. C., Nathalie, V., and Bibi, S. N.: A modeling
framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply
system under non-stationarity, J. Hydrol., 563, 22–32,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.037, 2018.
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint