Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Sep 2022
Research article |
| 26 Sep 2022
| 26 Sep 2022
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Melanie Fischer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Jana Brettin
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Sigrid Roessner
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Ariane Walz
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Monique Fort
Département de Géographie, Université Paris Cité,
Paris, France
Oliver Korup
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Oliver Korup, Lisa Luna, and Joaquin Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-55, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain most uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources, and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental setting.
Z. Xiong, D. Stober, M. Krstić, O. Korup, M. I. Arango, H. Li, and M. Werner
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-5-W1-2023, 75–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-5-W1-2023-75-2023, 2023
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
W. Wang, M. Motagh, S. Plank, A. Orynbaikyzy, and S. Roessner
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1181–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1181-2022, 2022
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Karolina Korzeniowska, Yves Bühler, Mauro Marty, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1823–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons, and obtained a user’s accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen’s kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km2, we estimated producer’s and user’s accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively.
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
N. K. Meyer, W. Schwanghart, O. Korup, and F. Nadim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 985–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In the past decades the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks has grown extensively making them more vulnerable to any kind of hazard. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to debris flows, a process frequently occurring in the mountainous area of Norway. The paper quantifies the functional risk associated with these processes. The results reveal that the costs related to route closures are strongly related to the information status of drivers.
O. Korup and C. Rixen
The Cryosphere, 8, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-651-2014, 2014
C. H. Mohr, A. Zimmermann, O. Korup, A. Iroumé, T. Francke, and A. Bronstert
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 117–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Text-mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts during multi-year drought
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
The value of ultra-detailed survey data for an improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Mülchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all investigated regions of Switzerland. Our results highlight the benefits and need of both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects . We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it's crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Theo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. Results from a physical model were used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and then the tributary sediment concentration controls morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents SWM, a stochastic weather model that produces catchment-scale stochastically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time- and spatially varying, risk assessments.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Cited articles
Arcement Jr., G. J. and Schneider, V. R.: Guide for selecting Manning's
roughness coefficients for natural channels and flood plains: U.S.
Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2339, US Department of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration, https://doi.org/10.3133/wsp2339, 1984.
Basnet, K. and Acharya, D.: Flood Analysis at Ramghat, Pokhara, Nepal Using
HEC-RAS, Tech. J., 1, 41–53, https://doi.org/10.3126/tj.v1i1.27591, 2019.
Bolch, T., Shea, J. M., Liu, S., Azam, F. M., Gao, Y., Gruber, S.,
Immerzeel, W. W., Kulkarni, A., Li, H., Tahir, A. A., Zhang, G., and Zhang,
Y.: Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya
Region BT – The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change,
Sustainability and People, 1st edn., edited by: Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A., and
Shrestha, A. B., 209–255, Springer International Publishing, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7,
2019.
Brunner, G. W.: HEC-RAS, River Analysis System – Hydraulic Reference Manual, 520, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/documentation/HEC-RAS%205.0%20Reference%20Manual.pdf (last access: 16 September 2022), 2020a.
Brunner, G. W.: HEC-RAS River Analysis System – 2D Modeling User's Manual,
283, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/rasdocs/r2dum/6.0 (last access: 16 September 2022), 2020b.
Carrivick, J. L.: Application of 2D hydrodynamic modelling to high-magnitude
outburst floods: An example from Kverkfjöll, Iceland, J. Hydrol.,
321, 187–199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.042, 2006.
Carrivick, J. L.: Modelling coupled hydraulics and sediment transport of a
high-magnitude flood and associated landscape change, Ann. Glaciol., 45,
143–154, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782282480, 2007.
Cenderelli, D. A. and Wohl, E. E.: Flow hydraulics and geomorphic effects of
glacial-lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal, Earth Surf.
Process. Landforms, 28, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.448, 2003.
Central Bureau of Statistics: National Population and Housing Census 2021,
Natl. Popul. Hous. Census 2021, https://cbs.gov.np/,
last access: 21 February 2022.
Cesca, M. and D'Agostino, V.: Comparison between FLO-2D and RAMMS in
debris-flow modelling: A case study in the Dolomites, WIT Trans. Eng. Sci.,
60, 197–206, https://doi.org/10.2495/DEB080201, 2008.
Chow, V. T.: Open-channel hydraulics, 1st edn., Civ. Eng. Ser., McGraw-Hill, New York, 680 pp., ISBN: 9780070859067, 1959.
Dahal, K. R., Sharma, S., and Sharma, C. M.: A Review of Riverbed Extraction
and its Effects on Aquatic Environment with Special Reference to Tinau
River, Nepal, Hydro Nepal J. Water Energy Environ., 11, 49–56,
https://doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i0.7163, 2012.
ESRI and Maxar Technologies: World Imagery,
https://services.arcgisonline.com/ArcGIS/rest/services/World_Imagery/MapServer, last access: 17 May 2022.
Fischer, M., Veh, G., and Korup, O.: Surface topography and roughness along
the Seti Khola (Pokhara Valley, Nepal) measured in-field in 2016 and 2019,
PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.941540, 2022.
Fort, M.: Sporadic morphogenesis in a continental subduction setting: an
example from the Annapurna Range, Nepal Himalaya, Zeitschrift für
Geomorphol. Suppl., 63, 9–36, 1987.
Fort, M.: The Pokhara Valley: A product of a natural catastrophe, in:
Geomorphological Landscapes of the World, edited by: Migon, P.,
Springer Science + Business Media B. V., 265–274, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3055-9_27, 2010.
Fort, M.: Impact of climate change on mountain environment dynamics, Rev.
géographie Alp., 103, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.4000/rga.2877, 2015.
Fort, M., Adhikari, B. R., and Rimal, B.: Chapter 12 – Pokhara (Central
Nepal): A Dramatic Yet Geomorphologically Active Environment Versus a
Dynamic, Rapidly Developing City, in: Urban Geomorphology, edited by:
Thornbush, M. J. and Allen, C. D., Elsevier, Amsterdam, Oxford,
Cambridge, 231–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811951-8.00012-6, 2018.
Gabet, E. J., Burbank, D. W., Putkonen, J. K., Pratt-Sitaula, B. A., and
Ojha, T.: Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal,
Geomorphology, 63, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.03.011, 2004.
Grandin, R., Doin, M. P., Bollinger, L., Pinel-Puysségur, B., Ducret,
G., Jolivet, R., and Sapkota, S. N.: Long-term growth of the Himalaya
inferred from interseismic InSAR measurement, Geology, 40, 1059–1062,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G33154.1, 2012.
Grebby, S., Sowter, A., Gee, D., Athab, A., De la Barreda-Bautista, B.,
Girindran, R., and Marsh, S.: Remote monitoring of ground motion hazards in
high mountain terrain using InSAR: A case study of the Lake Sarez area,
Tajikistan, Appl. Sci., 11, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3390/app11188738, 2021.
Gurung, D. R., Maharjan, S. B., Khanal, N. R., Joshi, G., and Murthy, M. S.
R.: Nepal disaster report 2015, Kathmandu, ISBN: 978-9937-0-0324-7, 2015.
Gurung, N., Fort, M., Bell, R., Arnaud-Fassetta, G., and Maharjan, N. R.:
Hydro-torrential hazard vs. anthropogenic activities along the Seti valley,
Kaski, Nepal: Assessment and recommendations from a risk perspective, J.
Nepal Geol. Soc., 62, 58–87, https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v62i0.38695, 2021.
Hanisch, J., Koirala, A., and Bhandary, N. P.: The Pokhara May 5th flood
disaster: a last warning sign sent by nature?, J. Nepal Geol. Soc., 46,
1–10, 2013.
Henzmann, I.: Local Peoples Risk Perception of Natural Hazards in the Seti
River Valley, Nepal, MS thesis, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 2020.
Hermle, D., Keuschnig, M., Hartmeyer, I., Delleske, R., and Krautblatter, M.: Timely prediction potential of landslide early warning systems with multispectral remote sensing: a conceptual approach tested in the Sattelkar, Austria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2753–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2753-2021, 2021.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi,
Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau,
U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H. I.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by:
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A.,
Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Genf, 131–202, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.004, 2019.
Hormann, K.: Die Terrassen an der Seti Khola – Ein Beitrag zur quartären
Morphogenese in Zentralnepal, Erdkunde, 28, 161–176, 1974.
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate change
will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010.
JAXA, NTT Data, and Remote Sensing Technology: AW3D Standard, https://www.aw3d.jp/en/products/standard/, JAXA [data set], last access: 16 September 2022.
Kargel, J. S., Paudel, L., Leonard, G., Regmi, D., Joshi, S., Poudel, K.,
Thapa, B., Watanabe, T., and Fort, M.: Causes and human impacts of the Seti
River (Nepal) disaster of 2012, in: Glacial Flooding & Disaster Risk
Management Knowledge Exchange and Field Training; High Mountains Adaptation
Partnership: Huaraz, Peru, 1–11, https://issuu.com/johnharlinmedia/docs/regmi_causes_humanimpactssetiriver_/1, (last access: 16 September 2022), 2013.
Kershaw, J. A., Clague, J. J., and Evans, S. G.: Geomorphic and
sedimentological signature of a two-phase outburst flood from moraine-dammed
Queen Bess Lake, British Columbia, Canada, Earth Surf. Process. Landforms,
30, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1122, 2005.
Kirschbaum, D., Watson, C. S., Rounce, D. R., Shugar, D. H., Kargel, J. S.,
Haritashya, U. K., Amatya, P., Shean, D., Anderson, E. R., and Jo, M.: The
State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards Over High Mountain
Asia, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00197, 2019.
Klimeš, J., Benešová, M., Vilímek, V., Bouška, P., and
Cochachin Rapre, A.: The reconstruction of a glacial lake outburst flood
using HEC-RAS and its significance for future hazard assessments: An example
from Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Nat. Hazards, 71,
1617–1638, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0968-4, 2014.
Kondolf, G. M.: Geomorphic and environmental effects of instream gravel
mining, Landsc. Urban Plan., 28, 225–243,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2046(94)90010-8, 1994.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F., and Immerzeel, W.
W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's
glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017.
Lovell, A. M., Carr, J. R., and Stokes, C. R.: Topographic controls on the
surging behaviour of Sabche Glacier, Nepal (1967 to 2017), Remote Sens.
Environ., 210, 434–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.03.036, 2018.
Mergili, M., Schneider, D., Worni, R., and Schneider, J. F.: Glacial lake
outburst floods in the Pamir of Tajikistan: Challenges in prediction and
modelling, Int. Conf. Debris-Flow Hazards Mitig. Mech. Predict. Assessment,
Proc., 973–982, https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-106, 2011.
Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium: National Land Cover
Database 2019 (NLCD2019) Legend, NLCD2019,
https://www.mrlc.gov/data/legends/national-land-cover-database-2019-nlcd2019-legend
(last access: 12 January 2022), 2019.
Nussbaumer, S., Schaub, Y., Huggel, C., and Walz, A.: Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1611–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, 2014.
Oi, H., Higaki, D., Yagi, H., Usuki, N., and Yoshino, K.: Survey Report on
the Seti River Flood, Nepal (May 5, 2012), Sabo Frontier Foundation, Tokyo, https://www.sff.or.jp/nepal/osirase/121009Setikawagenchichousahoukokusho_English.ver.pdf (last access: 16 September 2022),
2012.
Oi, H., Higaki, D., Yagi, H., Usuki, N., and Yoshino, K.: Report of the
investigation of the flood disaster that occurred on May 5, 2012 along the
Seti River in Nepal, Int. J. Eros. Control Eng., 7, 111–117,
https://doi.org/10.13101/ijece.7.111, 2014.
OSMF: OpenStreetMap, OSMF [data set], https://www.openstreetmap.org, last access: 30 September 2021.
Pandey, V. K., Kumar, R., Singh, R., Kumar, R., Rai, S. C., Singh, R. P.,
Tripathi, A. K., Soni, V. K., Ali, S. N., Tamang, D., and Latief, S. U.:
Catastrophic ice-debris flow in the Rishiganga River, Chamoli, Uttarakhand
(India), Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, 13, 289–309,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.2023661, 2022.
Petley, D.: Melamchi: a landslide dam break flood in Nepal last week,
Landslide Blog – AGU Blogosph.,
https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2021/06/21/melamchi-a-landslide-dam-break-flood-in-nepal-last-week/, last access: 16 July 2021.
Planet Team: Planet Application Program Interface: In Space for Life on
Earth, https://www.planet.com/explorer (last access: 16 September 2022), 2017.
Quincey, D. J., Lucas, R. M., Richardson, S. D., Glasser, N. F., Hambrey, M.
J., and Reynolds, J. M.: Optical remote sensing techniques in high-mountain
environments: Application to glacial hazards, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 29,
475–505, https://doi.org/10.1191/0309133305pp456ra, 2005.
Rimal, B.: Urbanization and the Decline of Agricultural Land in Pokhara
Sub-metropolitan City, Nepal, J. Agric. Sci., 5, 54–65,
https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v5n1p54, 2012.
Rimal, B., Baral, H., Stork, N., Paudyal, K., and Rijal, S.: Growing City and
Rapid Land Use Transition: Assessing Multiple Hazards and Risks in the
Pokhara Valley, Nepal, Land, 4, 957–978, https://doi.org/10.3390/land4040957, 2015.
Rimal, B., Zhang, L., Keshtkar, H., Sun, X., and Rijal, S.: Quantifying the
spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion and hazard and risk area
identification in the Kaski District of Nepal, Land, 7, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.3390/land7010037, 2018.
Ross, J. and Gilbert, R.: Lacustrine sedimentation in a monsoon environment:
The record from Phewa Tal, middle mountain region of Nepal, Geomorphology,
27, 307–323, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(98)00079-8, 1999.
SANDRP: Explained: Seti River floods in May 2012, Nepal – A chain of events,
starting at 25,000 feet!,
https://sandrp.in/2014/01/26/explained-seti-river-floods-in-may-2012
(last access: 18 March 2021), 2014.
Schild, A.: ICIMOD's Position on Climate Change and Mountain Systems, Mt.
Res. Dev., 28, 328–331, https://doi.org/10.1659/mrd.mp009, 2008.
Schwanghart, W., Bernhardt, A., Stolle, A., Hoelzmann, P., Adhikari, B. R.,
Andermann, C., Tofelde, S., Merchel, S., Rugel, G., Fort, M., and Korup, O.:
Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the
Nepal Himalaya, Science, 351, 147–150, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac9865,
2016.
Schwanghart, W., Ryan, M., and Korup, O.: Topographic and Seismic Constraints
on the Vulnerability of Himalayan Hydropower, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45,
8985–8992, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079173, 2018.
Shrestha, A., Thapa, S., and Ghimire, B. N. S.: Flood Hazard Mapping and
Vulnerability Analysis Along Seti River in Pokhara Metropolitan City, Lect.
Notes Civ. Eng., 115, 183–190, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9805-0_15, 2021.
Shugar, D. H., Jacquemart, M., Shean, D., Bhushan, S., Upadhyay, K., Sattar,
A., Schwanghart, W., McBride, S., de Vries, M. V. W., Mergili, M., Emmer,
A., Deschamps-Berger, C., McDonnell, M., Bhambri, R., Allen, S. K.,
Berthier, E., Carrivick, J. L., Clague, J. J., Dokukin, M., Dunning, S. A.,
Frey, H., Gascoin, S., Haritashya, U. K., Huggel, C., Kääb, A.,
Kargel, J. S., Kavanaugh, J. L., Lacroix, P., Petley, D., Rupper, S., Azam,
M. F., Cook, S. J., Dimri, A. P., Eriksson, M., Farinotti, D., Fiddes, J.,
Gnyawali, K. R., Harrison, S., Jha, M., Koppes, M., Kumar, A., Leinss, S.,
Majeed, U., Mal, S., Muhuri, A., Noetzli, J., Paul, F., Rashid, I., Sain,
K., Steiner, J., Ugalde, F., Watson, C. S., and Westoby, M. J.: A massive
rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya,
Science, 373, 300–306, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh4455, 2021.
Sidle, R. C. and Ziegler, A. D.: The dilemma of mountain roads, Nat.
Geosci., 5, 437–438, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1512, 2012.
Somos-Valenzuela, M. A., McKinney, D. C., Byers, A. C., Rounce, D. R., Portocarrero, C., and Lamsal, D.: Assessing downstream flood impacts due to a potential GLOF from Imja Tsho in Nepal, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1401–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, 2015.
Stolle, A.: Catastrophic Sediment Pulses in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal,
University of Potsdam, https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/41334/file/stolle_diss.pdf (last access: 16 September 2022), 2018.
Stolle, A., Bernhardt, A., Schwanghart, W., Hoelzmann, P., Adhikari, B. R.,
Fort, M., and Korup, O.: Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan
earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal, Quat. Sci. Rev., 177, 88–103,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.10.015, 2017.
Stolle, A., Schwanghart, W., Andermann, C., Bernhardt, A., Fort, M., Jansen,
J. D., Wittmann, H., Merchel, S., Rugel, G., Adhikari, B. R., and Korup, O.:
Protracted river response to medieval earthquakes, Earth Surf. Process.
Landforms, 44, 331–341, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4517, 2019.
Talchabhadel, R., Karki, R., Thapa, B. R., Maharjan, M., and Parajuli, B.:
Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Nepal, Int. J.
Climatol., 38, 4296–4313, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5669, 2018.
Thapa, B., Watanabe, T., and Regmi, D.: Flood Assessment and Identification
of Emergency Evacuation Routes in Seti River Basin, Nepal, Land, 11,
1–33, https://doi.org/10.3390/land11010082, 2022.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – Field Information
Services Section (OCHA FISS): Nepal – Subnational Administrative Boundaries,
Humanit. Data Exch.,
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/administrative-bounadries-of-nepal (last access: 5 January 2022), 2020.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Population
Prospect 2019, World Population Prospect,
https://population.un.org/wpp/ (last access: 13 January 2022), 2019.
Vuichard, D. and Zimmermann, M.: The 1985 Catastrophic Drainage of a
Moraine-Dammed Lake, Khumbu Himal, Nepal: Cause and Consequences, Mt. Res.
Dev., 7, 91–110, https://doi.org/10.2307/3673305, 1987.
Wang, W., Gao, Y., Iribarren Anacona, P., Lei, Y., Xiang, Y., Zhang, G., Li,
S., and Lu, A.: Integrated hazard assessment of Cirenmaco glacial lake in
Zhangzangbo valley, Central Himalayas, Geomorphology, 306, 292–305,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.08.013, 2018.
Westoby, M. J., Glasser, N. F., Brasington, J., Hambrey, M. J., Quincey, D.
J., and Reynolds, J. M.: Modelling outburst floods from moraine-dammed
glacial lakes, Earth-Sci. Rev., 134, 137–159,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.009, 2014.
Wohl, E. E.: Uncertainty in Flood Estimates Associated with Roughness
Coefficient, J. Hydraul. Eng., 124, 219–223,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9429(1998)124:2(219), 1998.
Zhang, T. and Wang, W.: Development of monitoring and early warning system
for Cirenmaco glacial lake in the central Himalayas, Int. J. Disaster Risk
Reduct., 73, 102914, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102914, 2022.
Zhang, X. and Liu, S.: A framework of numerical simulation on moraine-dammed
glacial lake outburst floods, J. Arid Land, 7, 728–740,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-015-0133-x, 2015.
Zheng, G., Allen, S. K., Bao, A., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Huss, M.,
Zhang, G., Li, J., Yuan, Y., Jiang, L., Yu, T., Chen, W., and Stoffel, M.:
Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole
deglaciation, Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 411–417,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3, 2021.
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint