Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
15 Sep 2022
Brief communication |
| 15 Sep 2022
| 15 Sep 2022
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
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In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
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For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
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Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
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We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Dirk Diederen, Ye Liu, Ben Gouldby, Ferdinand Diermanse, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1041–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019
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Floods affect many communities and cause a large amount of damage worldwide.
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We explore a new method to obtain a large catalogue of synthetic, spatially coherent, large-scale river discharge events, using a recent (gridded) European discharge data set.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
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Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
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In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Sergey Tyagunov, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez, Stefano Parolai, and Kevin Fleming
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, 2018
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A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of fluvial dikes due to liquefaction is presented. Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic and hydraulic load. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision-making.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
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The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
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Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, 2018
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This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
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Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Martin Hoelzle, Erlan Azisov, Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, Abror Gafurov, Wilfried Hagg, Ruslan Kenzhebaev, Marlene Kronenberg, Horst Machguth, Alexandr Merkushkin, Bolot Moldobekov, Maxim Petrov, Tomas Saks, Nadine Salzmann, Tilo Schöne, Yuri Tarasov, Ryskul Usubaliev, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Andrey Yakovlev, and Michael Zemp
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, 2017
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
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In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, 2017
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Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, 2016
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Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
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To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, 2016
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016
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Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
A. Gafurov, S. Vorogushyn, D. Farinotti, D. Duethmann, A. Merkushkin, and B. Merz
The Cryosphere, 9, 451–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, 2015
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Spatially distributed snow-cover data are available only for the recent past from remote sensing. Sometimes we need snow-cover data over a longer period for climate impact analysis for the calibration/validation of hydrological models. In this study we present a methodology to reconstruct snow cover in the past using available long-term in situ data and recently available remote sensing snow-cover data. The results show about 85% accuracy although only a limited number of stations (7) were used.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
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Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, 2014
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
S. Vorogushyn and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3871–3884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, 2013
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
D. Duethmann, J. Zimmer, A. Gafurov, A. Güntner, D. Kriegel, B. Merz, and S. Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2415–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 895–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, 2013
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
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Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
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Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
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We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
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Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
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On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
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To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
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A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
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The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
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Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
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We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
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INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
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Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-50, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings in, we produce detailed, quantitative and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Alison Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-51, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range; Summer 2022 ~28 % lower and Autumn 2023 ~42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could improve water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
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The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
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The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian Grams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-415, 2024
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Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but is still difficult to predict on long time scales. A recent example of this were the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allow us to better understand and predict such events.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
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This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
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The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study utilizes the Global Copula Bayesian Model Averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
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We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
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CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depths and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH aims to reduce the impact of floods and is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depths quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
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We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
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Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Boutzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, 2024
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Modelling floods at the street-level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of details. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase of population displaced of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the U.S.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Climate change is leading in the Pyrenees Massif to a change in socioeconomic increasing their sensitivity to natural risks such as floods. However, until now, no systematic study like this one had been carried out that would allow evaluating the frequency, distribution and main meteorological features of these events on a massif scale. In 35 years there have been 181 flood events that have produced 154 fatalities.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
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Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
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This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
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We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
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We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
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Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
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We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
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Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables...
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