Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
Brief communication
 | 
15 Sep 2022
Brief communication |  | 15 Sep 2022

Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany

Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz

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Cited articles

Almeida, G. A. M. d., Bates, P., Freer, J. E., and Souvignet, M.: Improving the stability of a simple formulation of the shallow water equations for 2-D flood modeling, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05528, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011570, 2012. 
Apel, H., Aronica, G., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, 2009. 
Aronica, G., Bates, P. D., and Horritt, M. S.: Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE, Hydrol. Process., 16, 2001–2016, 2002. 
Bachmann, D., Eilander, D., de Leeuw, A., de Bruijn, K., Diermanse, F., Weerts, A., and Beckers, J.: Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18018, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718018, 2016. 
Bates, P. D.: Flood Inundation Prediction, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 54, 287–315, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-fluid-030121-113138, 2022. 
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
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