Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
15 Sep 2022
Brief communication |
| 15 Sep 2022
| 15 Sep 2022
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3055–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3055-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts for snowmelt-dominated catchments often rely on snowpack data, which are not always available and are prone to errors. Our study evaluates near-real-time global snow estimates and climate oscillation indices for predictions in the data-scarce mountains of central Asia. We show that climate indices can improve prediction accuracy at longer lead times, help offset snow data uncertainty, and enhance predictions where streamflow depends on in-season climate variability.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Siqi Deng, Johannes Spazier, and Heiko Apel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2425, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Urban pluvial flooding is worsening due to climate change and urbanization, requiring faster forecasts. This study presents RIM2D, a multi-GPU 2D flood model, simulating high-resolution events (2–10 m) across Berlin (891.8 km2) with up to 8 GPUs. Simulations of real and synthetic floods show multi-GPU use is vital for fine-scale, timely forecasts. RIM2D proves operationally viable for urban-scale early warning using modern GPU hardware.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, and Heiko Apel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2304, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how the way buildings are represented in flood models influences predictions of flood extent, water depth, flow speed, and overall impact. Using a major flood event in Germany as a case study, we evaluate different representation methods across various model resolutions. The results support more accurate flood modeling and impact assessments, helping cities better prepare for and respond to future floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-314, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization and climate change raise flood risk in cities, emphasizing the need for accurate building representation in flood hydrodynamic models. We examine the effects of different building representation techniques on flood modeling using the 2021 Ahr Valley flood data. We demonstrate that building representation significantly affects flood extent and flow dynamics, highlighting the need to choose the appropriate method based on model resolution for effective flood impact assessments.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, 2014
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3055–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3055-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3055-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts for snowmelt-dominated catchments often rely on snowpack data, which are not always available and are prone to errors. Our study evaluates near-real-time global snow estimates and climate oscillation indices for predictions in the data-scarce mountains of central Asia. We show that climate indices can improve prediction accuracy at longer lead times, help offset snow data uncertainty, and enhance predictions where streamflow depends on in-season climate variability.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Siqi Deng, Johannes Spazier, and Heiko Apel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2425, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Urban pluvial flooding is worsening due to climate change and urbanization, requiring faster forecasts. This study presents RIM2D, a multi-GPU 2D flood model, simulating high-resolution events (2–10 m) across Berlin (891.8 km2) with up to 8 GPUs. Simulations of real and synthetic floods show multi-GPU use is vital for fine-scale, timely forecasts. RIM2D proves operationally viable for urban-scale early warning using modern GPU hardware.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, and Heiko Apel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2304, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how the way buildings are represented in flood models influences predictions of flood extent, water depth, flow speed, and overall impact. Using a major flood event in Germany as a case study, we evaluate different representation methods across various model resolutions. The results support more accurate flood modeling and impact assessments, helping cities better prepare for and respond to future floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Xiaoxiang Guan, Baoying Shan, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1509, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and predicting extreme floods is crucial for reducing disaster risks, yet existing models struggle with unprecedented events. We tested multiple modeling approaches across 400+ river catchments in Central Europe and found that deep learning models outperform traditional methods but still underestimate extreme floods. Our findings suggest that combining data-driven models with physical knowledge can improve flood predictions, helping communities better prepare for future extremes.
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella Loureiro, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-828, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and Belgium were hit by an extreme flood event with over 200 fatalities. Our study provides, for the first time, critical insights into the operational flood early-warning systems in this entire region. Based on 13 expert interviews, we conclude that the systems strongly improved in all countries. Interviewees stressed the need for operational impact-based forecasts, but emphasized that its operational implementation is challenging.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-314, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Urbanization and climate change raise flood risk in cities, emphasizing the need for accurate building representation in flood hydrodynamic models. We examine the effects of different building representation techniques on flood modeling using the 2021 Ahr Valley flood data. We demonstrate that building representation significantly affects flood extent and flow dynamics, highlighting the need to choose the appropriate method based on model resolution for effective flood impact assessments.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Seth Bryant, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 386, 181–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study found that simplifying data in flood risk models can introduce errors. We tested 344 damage functions and found errors up to 40 % of the total asset value. This means large-scale flood risk assessments may have significant errors due to the modelling approach. Our research highlights the need for more attention to data aggregation in flood risk models.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Zhihua He, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Stephan M. Weise, Doris Duethmann, Olga Kalashnikova, Abror Gafurov, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3289–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the seasonal contributions of the runoff components, including groundwater, snowmelt, glacier melt, and rainfall, to streamflow is highly necessary for understanding the dynamics of water resources in glacierized basins given the vulnerability of snow- and glacier-dominated environments to the current climate warming. Our study provides the first comparison of two end-member mixing approaches for hydrograph separation in glacierized basins.
Benjamin Winter, Klaus Schneeberger, Kristian Förster, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1689-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1689-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper two different methods to generate spatially coherent flood events for probabilistic flood risk modelling are compared: on the one hand, a semi-conditional multi-variate dependence model applied to discharge observations and, on the other hand, a continuous hydrological modelling of synthetic meteorological fields generated by a multi-site weather generator. The results of the two approaches are compared in terms of simulated spatial patterns and overall flood risk estimates.
Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Dirk Diederen, Ye Liu, Ben Gouldby, Ferdinand Diermanse, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1041–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Floods affect many communities and cause a large amount of damage worldwide.
Since we choose to live in natural flood plains and are unable to prevent all floods, a system of insurance and reinsurance was set up.
For these institutes to not fail, estimates are required of the frequency of large-scale flood events.
We explore a new method to obtain a large catalogue of synthetic, spatially coherent, large-scale river discharge events, using a recent (gridded) European discharge data set.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Sergey Tyagunov, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez, Stefano Parolai, and Kevin Fleming
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of fluvial dikes due to liquefaction is presented. Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic and hydraulic load. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision-making.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Martin Hoelzle, Erlan Azisov, Martina Barandun, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, Abror Gafurov, Wilfried Hagg, Ruslan Kenzhebaev, Marlene Kronenberg, Horst Machguth, Alexandr Merkushkin, Bolot Moldobekov, Maxim Petrov, Tomas Saks, Nadine Salzmann, Tilo Schöne, Yuri Tarasov, Ryskul Usubaliev, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Andrey Yakovlev, and Michael Zemp
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 397–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-397-2017, 2017
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, 2016
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
A. Gafurov, S. Vorogushyn, D. Farinotti, D. Duethmann, A. Merkushkin, and B. Merz
The Cryosphere, 9, 451–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially distributed snow-cover data are available only for the recent past from remote sensing. Sometimes we need snow-cover data over a longer period for climate impact analysis for the calibration/validation of hydrological models. In this study we present a methodology to reconstruct snow cover in the past using available long-term in situ data and recently available remote sensing snow-cover data. The results show about 85% accuracy although only a limited number of stations (7) were used.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, 2014
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
S. Vorogushyn and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3871–3884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, 2013
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
D. Duethmann, J. Zimmer, A. Gafurov, A. Güntner, D. Kriegel, B. Merz, and S. Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2415–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 895–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, 2013
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Drought propagation in high-latitude catchments: insights from a 60-year analysis using standardized indices
Brief communication: Hydrological and hydraulic investigation of the extreme September 2024 flood on the Lamone River in Emilia-Romagna, Italy
Improving pluvial flood simulations with a multi-source digital elevation model super-resolution method
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: New insight from two large-scale hydrological models
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agriculture Drought Indicators
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA
Evaluating Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration flood risk using hybrid method of AutoML and AHP
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Hail events in Germany, rare or frequent natural hazards?
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2541–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study is an exploration of how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on such factors as land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to affect weather patterns.
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2473–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Between 17 and 20 September 2024, the Lamone River basin in northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitation. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the village of Traversara. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2271–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilising a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Andrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
After a fire, soil infiltration decreases, increasing flash flood risks, worsened by intense rainfall from climate change. Using data from a burned watershed in Arizona and a hydrological model, we examined postfire soil changes under medium and high emissions scenarios. Results showed soil infiltration increased sixfold from the first to third postfire year. Both scenarios suggest that rainfall intensification will extend high flood risks after fires by late century.
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Cited articles
Almeida, G. A. M. d., Bates, P., Freer, J. E., and Souvignet, M.: Improving
the stability of a simple formulation of the shallow water equations for 2-D flood modeling, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05528,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011570, 2012.
Apel, H., Aronica, G., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, 2009.
Aronica, G., Bates, P. D., and Horritt, M. S.: Assessing the uncertainty in
distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE, Hydrol. Process., 16, 2001–2016, 2002.
Bachmann, D., Eilander, D., de Leeuw, A., de Bruijn, K., Diermanse, F.,
Weerts, A., and Beckers, J.: Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting
systems in the Netherlands and Italy, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18018, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718018, 2016.
Bates, P. D.: Flood Inundation Prediction, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 54, 287–315, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-fluid-030121-113138, 2022.
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027, 2010.
Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sosa, J., Savage,
J., Olcese, G., Neal, J., Schumann, G., Giustarini, L., Coxon, G., Porter, J. R., Amodeo, M. F., Chu, Z., Lewis-Gruss, S., Freeman, N. B., Houser, T., Delgado, M., Hamidi, A., Bolliger, I., E. McCusker, K., Emanuel, K., Ferreira, C. M., Khalid, A., Haigh, I. D., Couasnon, A., E. Kopp, R., Hsiang, S., and Krajewski, W. F.: Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028673, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028673, 2021.
Bocanegra, R. A., and Francés, F.: Assessing the risk of vehicle instability due to flooding, J. Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12738, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12738, 2021.
Brown, E., Bachmann, D., Cranston, M., de Leeuw, A., Boelee, L., Diermanse,
F., Eilander, D., de Bruijn, K., Weerts, A., Hazlewood, C., and Beckers, J.:
Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting – a UK pilot application, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18019, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718019, 2016.
Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie: Digitales Geländemodell Gitterweite 10 m (DGM10), BKG [data set],
https://gdz.bkg.bund.de/index.php/default/digitale-geodaten/digitale-gelandemodelle/digitales-gelandemodell-gitterweite-10-m-dgm10.html, last access: 30 January 2022.
Dale, M., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Laeger, S., and Taylor, S.: Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach, Nat. Hazards, 70, 159–172, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z, 2016.
de Almeida, G. A. M. and Bates, P.: Applicability of the local inertial
approximation of the shallow water equations to flood modeling, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4833–4844, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20366, 2013.
de Almeida, G. A. M., Bates, P., and Ozdemir, H.: Modelling urban floods at
submetre resolution: challenges or opportunities for flood risk management?,
J. Flood Risk Manage., 11, S855–S865, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12276, 2018.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58, 407–425, 2011.
Dottori, F., Kalas, M., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., and Feyen, L.: An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017.
Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J.-C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L., Hirabayashi, Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R. A., and Feyen, L.: Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 781-786, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z, 2018.
Douben, K.-J.: Characteristics of river floods and flooding: a global overview, 1985–2003, Irrig. Drain., 55, S9–S21, https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.239, 2006.
Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. A., and Cloke, H. L.: Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems, WIREs Water, 3, 391–418, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137, 2016.
Falter, D., Schröter, K., Dung, N. V., Vorogushyn, S., Kreibich, H.,
Hundecha, Y., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model
chain, J. Hydrol., 524, 182–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.021, 2015.
Falter, D., Dung, N. V., Vorogushyn, S., Schröter, K., Hundecha, Y.,
Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Theisselmann, F., and Merz, B.: Continuous, large-scale simulation model for flood risk assessments: proof-of-concept, J. Flood Risk Manage., 9, 3–21, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12105, 2016.
Farrag, M., Brill, F., Dung, N. V., Sairam, N., Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., de Bruijn, K. M., and Vorogushyn, S.: On the role of floodplain storage and hydrodynamic interactions in flood risk estimation, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 67, 508–534, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2030058, 2022.
Hofmann, J. and Schüttrumpf, H.: Risk-Based and Hydrodynamic Pluvial
Flood Forecasts in Real Time, Water, 12, 1895, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071895, 2020.
Hofmann, J., and Schüttrumpf, H.: floodGAN: Using Deep Adversarial Learning to Predict Pluvial Flooding in Real Time, Water, 13, 2255, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13162255, 2021.
Horritt, M. S., Di Baldassare, G., Bates, P. D., and Brath, A.: Comparing
the performance of a 2-D finite element and a 2-D fintite volume model of
floodplain inundation using airborne SAR imagery, Hydrol. Process., 21, 2745–2759, 2007.
Jansen, L., Korswagen, P. A., Bricker, J. D., Pasterkamp, S., de Bruijn, K.
M., and Jonkman, S. N.: Experimental determination of pressure coefficients
for flood loading of walls of Dutch terraced houses, Eng. Struct., 216, 110647, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.110647, 2020.
Jonkman, S., Vrijling, J., and Vrouwenvelder, A.: Methods for the estimation
of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new
method, Nat. Hazards, 46, 353–389, 2008.
Jonkman, S. N. and Penning-Rowsell, E.: Human Instability in Flood Flows, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44, 1208–1218, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00217.x, 2008.
Kelman, I. and Spence, R.: An overview of flood actions on buildings, Eng. Geol., 73, 297–309, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.010, 2004.
Kreibich, H., Hudson, P., and Merz, B.: Knowing What to Do Substantially
Improves the Effectiveness of Flood Early Warning, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1450–E1463, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0262.1, 2021.
Lim, N. J. and Brandt, S. A.: Flood map boundary sensitivity due to combined effects of DEM resolution and roughness in relation to model performance, Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, 10, 1613–1647, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1604573, 2019.
Martínez-Gomariz, E., Gómez, M., Russo, B., Sánchez, P., and Montes, J.-A.: Methodology for the damage assessment of vehicles exposed to
flooding in urban areas, J. Flood Risk Manage., 12, e12475,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12475, 2019.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N.,
Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F.,
Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K.,
Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support
Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Milanesi, L. and Pilotti, M.: A conceptual model of vehicles stability in
flood flows, J. Hydraul. Res., 58, 701–708, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2019.1647887, 2020.
Milanesi, L., Pilotti, M., and Ranzi, R.: A conceptual model of people's
vulnerability to floods, Water Resour. Res., 51, 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016172, 2015.
Neal, J., Schumann, G., Fewtrell, T., Budimir, M., Bates, P., and Mason, D.:
Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK, J. Flood Risk Manage., 4, 88–95,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01093.x, 2011.
Neelz, S. and Pender, G.: Sub-grid scale parameterisation of 2D hydrodynamic models of inundation in the urban area, Acta Geophys., 55, 65–72, 2007.
Penning-Rowsell, E., Floyd, P., Ramsbottom, D., and Surendran, S.: Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework, Nat. Hazards, 36, 43–64, 2005.
REDSCAM: The use of physical models in dam-break analysis, Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki, 57 pp., http://www.environment.fi/download.asp?contentid=13494 (last access: December 2003), 2000.
Rözer, V., Peche, A., Berkhahn, S., Feng, Y., Fuchs, L., Graf, T.,
Haberlandt, U., Kreibich, H., Sämann, R., Sester, M., Shehu, B., Wahl,
J., and Neuweiler, I.: Impact-Based Forecasting for Pluvial Floods, Earth's
Future, 9, 2020EF001851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001851, 2021.
Sairam, N., Brill, F., Sieg, T., Farrag, M., Kellermann, P., Nguyen, V. D.,
Lüdtke, S., Merz, B., Schröter, K., Vorogushyn, S., and Kreibich, H.: Process-Based Flood Risk Assessment for Germany, Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002259, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002259, 2021.
Sampson, C. C., Smith, A. M., Bates, P. B., Neal, J. C., Alfieri, L., and
Freer, J. E.: A high-resolution global flood hazard model, Water Resour. Res., 51, 7358–7381, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016954, 2015.
Savage, J. T. S., Bates, P., Freer, J., Neal, J., and Aronica, G.: When does
spatial resolution become spurious in probabilistic flood inundation predictions?, Hydrol. Process., 30, 2014–2032, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10749, 2016.
Shaw, J., Kesserwani, G., Neal, J., Bates, P., and Sharifian, M. K.: LISFLOOD-FP 8.0: the new discontinuous Galerkin shallow-water solver for multi-core CPUs and GPUs, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3577–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, 2021.
Stephens, E. and Bates, P.: Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions of the 2009 Cockermouth, UK, Hydrol. Process., 29, 4264–4283, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10451, 2015.
Taylor, A. L., Kox, T., and Johnston, D.: Communicating high impact weather:
Improving warnings and decision making processes, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 30, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.002, 2018.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, 472 pp., https://gar.undrr.org/
(last access: January 2022), 2019.
Vorogushyn, S., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: The impact of the uncertainty of
dike breach development time on flood hazard, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 36, 319–323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.01.005, 2011.
Weyrich, P., Scolobig, A., Bresch, D. N., and Patt, A.: Effects of Impact-Based Warnings and Behavioral Recommendations for Extreme Weather
Events, Weather Clim. Soc., 10, 781–796, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0038.1, 2018.
Wing, O. E. J., Smith, A. M., Marston, M. L., Porter, J. R., Amodeo, M. F.,
Sampson, C. C., and Bates, P. D.: Simulating historical flood events at the
continental scale: observational validation of a large-scale hydrodynamic
model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 559–575,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-559-2021, 2021.
Zhang, Q., Li, L., Ebert, B., Golding, B., Johnston, D., Mills, B., Panchuk,
S., Potter, S., Riemer, M., Sun, J., Taylor, A., Jones, S., Ruti, P., and
Keller, J.: Increasing the value of weather-related warnings, Sci. Bull., 64, 647–649, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003, 2019.
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint