Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
Brief communication
15 Sep 2022
Brief communication |  | 15 Sep 2022

Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany

Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz

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It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr valley, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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Simulating the Ahr valley 2021 flood event: a comparative assessment of 2D shallow water solvers for early flood warning
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Technical Note: Resolution enhancement of flood inundation grids
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588,,, 2024
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Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
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Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
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Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
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Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
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Cited articles

Almeida, G. A. M. d., Bates, P., Freer, J. E., and Souvignet, M.: Improving the stability of a simple formulation of the shallow water equations for 2-D flood modeling, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05528,, 2012. 
Apel, H., Aronica, G., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, 2009. 
Aronica, G., Bates, P. D., and Horritt, M. S.: Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE, Hydrol. Process., 16, 2001–2016, 2002. 
Bachmann, D., Eilander, D., de Leeuw, A., de Bruijn, K., Diermanse, F., Weerts, A., and Beckers, J.: Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy, E3S Web Conf., 7, 18018,, 2016. 
Bates, P. D.: Flood Inundation Prediction, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 54, 287–315,, 2022. 
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Final-revised paper