Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
15 Sep 2022
Brief communication |
| 15 Sep 2022
| 15 Sep 2022
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Bruno Merz
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Total article views: 3,250 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 1096 | 25 |
| United States of America | 2 | 934 | 21 |
| China | 3 | 364 | 8 |
| United Kingdom | 4 | 135 | 3 |
| France | 5 | 134 | 3 |
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 761 | 23 |
| United States of America | 2 | 720 | 22 |
| China | 3 | 320 | 9 |
| United Kingdom | 4 | 112 | 3 |
| France | 5 | 93 | 2 |
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 335 | 30 |
| United States of America | 2 | 214 | 19 |
| China | 3 | 44 | 4 |
| France | 4 | 41 | 3 |
| Netherlands | 5 | 33 | 3 |
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36 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- When, at what speed, and how? Resilient transformation of the Vesdre river basin (Belgium) following the 2021 floods M. de Goër de Herve & W. Pot 10.1186/s12302-024-00928-3
- HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood A. Montanari et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
- A reach-integrated hydraulic modelling approach for large-scale and real-time inundation mapping R. Chlumsky et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025
- Bias in Flood Hazard Grid Aggregation S. Bryant et al. 10.1029/2023WR035100
- Evaluation of surrogate flood models for the use in impact-based flood warning systems at national scale M. Mosimann et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105936
- Supercharging hydrodynamic inundation models for instant flood insight N. Fraehr et al. 10.1038/s44221-023-00132-2
- More Help Was Offered—But Was It Effective? First Responders and Volunteers in the 2021 Flood Disaster in Germany A. Fekete & B. Rhein 10.3390/geosciences14020046
- Incorporating compound flood events in the weather service value chain J. Su et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00077-4
- Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents A. Thieken et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
- GraphFlood 1.0: an efficient algorithm to approximate 2D hydrodynamics for landscape evolution models B. Gailleton et al. 10.5194/esurf-12-1295-2024
- High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding H. Najafi et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-48065-y
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis S. Mohr et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023
- Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024
- Effectiveness of a Dam-Breach Flood Alert in Mitigating Life Losses: A Spatiotemporal Sectorisation Analysis in a High-Density Urban Area in Brazil A. Silva & J. Eleutério 10.3390/w15193433
- Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025
- A multi-system comparison of forecast flooding extent using a scale-selective approach H. Hooker et al. 10.2166/nh.2023.025
- Can sediments play a role in river flood risk mapping? Learning from selected European examples M. Nones & Y. Guo 10.1186/s40677-023-00250-9
- Early warning response to rainstorm: Designing a model with incentive and supervision mechanisms based on the principal-agent theory R. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104683
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Treibgutverhalten im Hochwasserfall und hochwasserangepasste Brückenbauweisen L. Burghardt et al. 10.1007/s35152-024-1847-x
- A review of recent advances in urban flood research C. Agonafir et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2023.100141
- Technical Note: Resolution enhancement of flood inundation grids S. Bryant et al. 10.5194/hess-28-575-2024
- Field survey assessment of flood loads and related building damage from the July 2021 event in the Ahr Valley (Germany) D. Wüthrich et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13024
- Flood reconstruction – The unexpected rather frequent event at River Ahr in July 2021 T. Roggenkamp et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104541
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments M. Bertola et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5
- Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters J. Ommer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024
- Resilience beyond insurance: coordination in crisis governance E. Platzer & M. Knodt 10.1007/s10669-023-09938-7
- Natural hazard insurance outcomes at national, regional and local scales: A comparison between Sweden and Portugal M. Leal et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116079
- Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling A. Silva et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
- Risk social contracts: Exploring responsibilities through the lens of citizens affected by flooding in Germany in 2021 J. Ommer et al. 10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100315
- Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025
- Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks V. Muccione et al. 10.1002/wcc.883
- Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood B. Rhein & H. Kreibich 10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025
- Improving the understandability of flood warning messages – Explorative study on design preferences S. Lindenlaub et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104685
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Urban flood drifters (UFD): Identification, classification and characterisation A. Bayón et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13002
- When, at what speed, and how? Resilient transformation of the Vesdre river basin (Belgium) following the 2021 floods M. de Goër de Herve & W. Pot 10.1186/s12302-024-00928-3
- HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood A. Montanari et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024
- A reach-integrated hydraulic modelling approach for large-scale and real-time inundation mapping R. Chlumsky et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-3387-2025
- Bias in Flood Hazard Grid Aggregation S. Bryant et al. 10.1029/2023WR035100
- Evaluation of surrogate flood models for the use in impact-based flood warning systems at national scale M. Mosimann et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105936
- Supercharging hydrodynamic inundation models for instant flood insight N. Fraehr et al. 10.1038/s44221-023-00132-2
- More Help Was Offered—But Was It Effective? First Responders and Volunteers in the 2021 Flood Disaster in Germany A. Fekete & B. Rhein 10.3390/geosciences14020046
- Incorporating compound flood events in the weather service value chain J. Su et al. 10.1038/s44304-025-00077-4
- Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents A. Thieken et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
- GraphFlood 1.0: an efficient algorithm to approximate 2D hydrodynamics for landscape evolution models B. Gailleton et al. 10.5194/esurf-12-1295-2024
- High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding H. Najafi et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-48065-y
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis S. Mohr et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023
- Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024
- Effectiveness of a Dam-Breach Flood Alert in Mitigating Life Losses: A Spatiotemporal Sectorisation Analysis in a High-Density Urban Area in Brazil A. Silva & J. Eleutério 10.3390/w15193433
- Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025
- A multi-system comparison of forecast flooding extent using a scale-selective approach H. Hooker et al. 10.2166/nh.2023.025
- Can sediments play a role in river flood risk mapping? Learning from selected European examples M. Nones & Y. Guo 10.1186/s40677-023-00250-9
- Early warning response to rainstorm: Designing a model with incentive and supervision mechanisms based on the principal-agent theory R. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104683
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Treibgutverhalten im Hochwasserfall und hochwasserangepasste Brückenbauweisen L. Burghardt et al. 10.1007/s35152-024-1847-x
- A review of recent advances in urban flood research C. Agonafir et al. 10.1016/j.wasec.2023.100141
- Technical Note: Resolution enhancement of flood inundation grids S. Bryant et al. 10.5194/hess-28-575-2024
- Field survey assessment of flood loads and related building damage from the July 2021 event in the Ahr Valley (Germany) D. Wüthrich et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13024
- Flood reconstruction – The unexpected rather frequent event at River Ahr in July 2021 T. Roggenkamp et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104541
- Fast urban inundation simulation with RIM2D for flood risk assessment and forecasting H. Apel et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310182
- Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments M. Bertola et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5
- Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters J. Ommer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024
- Resilience beyond insurance: coordination in crisis governance E. Platzer & M. Knodt 10.1007/s10669-023-09938-7
- Natural hazard insurance outcomes at national, regional and local scales: A comparison between Sweden and Portugal M. Leal et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116079
- Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling A. Silva et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
- Risk social contracts: Exploring responsibilities through the lens of citizens affected by flooding in Germany in 2021 J. Ommer et al. 10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100315
- Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig S. Khosh Bin Ghomash et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025
- Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks V. Muccione et al. 10.1002/wcc.883
- Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood B. Rhein & H. Kreibich 10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025
- Improving the understandability of flood warning messages – Explorative study on design preferences S. Lindenlaub et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104685
Latest update: 15 Jun 2025
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables...
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