Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 02 Jun 2022
| 02 Jun 2022
More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
Section 4.6 Geomorphology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg F427, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Faculty of Geoscience and Geography, University of Göttingen, Goldschmidtstraße 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
Rainer Bell
Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Ugur Ozturk
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Section 2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg F427, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kristen L. Cook
Section 2.6 Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg F427, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Christoff Andermann
Section 4.6 Geomorphology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg F427, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Alexander R. Beer
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Schnarrenbergstr. 94–96, 72076 Tübingen, Germany
Bodo Damm
Department II – Applied Physical Geography, University of Vechta, Universitätsstraße 5, 49377 Vechta, Germany
Ana Lucia
Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Schnarrenbergstr. 94–96, 72076 Tübingen, Germany
Felix S. Fauer
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Katrin M. Nissen
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Tobias Sieg
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Annegret H. Thieken
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1027–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Michael Dietze, Sebastian Kreutzer, Margret C. Fuchs, and Sascha Meszner
Geochronology, 4, 323–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The R package sandbox is a collection of functions that allow the creation, sampling and analysis of fully virtual sediment sections, like having a virtual twin of real-world deposits. This article introduces the concept, features, and workflows required to use sandbox. It shows how a real-world sediment section can be mapped into the model and subsequently addresses a series of theoretical and practical questions, exploiting the flexibility of the model framework.
Kristen L. Cook and Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1009–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
UAVs have become popular tools for detecting topographic changes. Traditionally, detecting small amounts of change between two UAV surveys requires each survey to be highly accurate. We take an alternative approach and present a simple processing workflow that produces survey pairs or sets that are highly consistent with each other, even when the overall accuracy is relatively low. This greatly increases our ability to detect changes in settings where ground control is not possible.
Elisabeth Dietze and Michael Dietze
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 29–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sedimentary deposits provide insights into past Earth surface dynamics via the size distribution of mineral grains documenting the erosion, transport and deposition history. This study introduces structured procedures to decipher the distinct grain-size distributions of sediment samples that were mixed during/after deposition, using the free statistical tool EMMAgeo. Compared with other algorithms, EMMAgeo is unique as it provides uncertainty estimates and allows expert knowledge to be included.
Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental seismology is the study of the seismic signals emitted by Earth surface processes. This emerging research field is at the intersection of many Earth science disciplines. The overarching scope requires free integrative software that is accepted across scientific disciplines, such as R. The article introduces the R package "eseis" and illustrates its conceptual structure, available functions, and worked examples.
Michael Dietze, Jens M. Turowski, Kristen L. Cook, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall is an essential geomorphic process and a hazard in steep landscapes which is hard to constrain with traditional approaches. Seismic methods allow for the detection, location, characterisation and linking of events to triggers by lag times. This new technique reveals 49 rockfalls in 6 months with seasonally varying locations. Freeze–thaw action accounts for only 5 events, whereas 19 rockfalls were caused by rain with a 1 h peak lag time, and 17 events were due to diurnal thermal forcing.
Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Wolfgang Schwanghart, Ankit Agarwal, Kristen Cook, Ugur Ozturk, Roopam Shukla, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3291–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan landscape is particularly susceptible to extreme events, which interfere with increasing populations and the expansion of settlements and infrastructure. This preface introduces and summarizes the nine papers that are part of the special issue,
Estimating and predicting natural hazards and vulnerabilities in the Himalayan region.
Mirjam Schaller, Daniel Peifer, Alexander B. Neely, Thomas Bernard, Christoph Glotzbach, Alexander R. Beer, and Todd A. Ehlers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2729, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports chemical weathering, physical erosion, and total denudation rates from river load data in the Swabian Alb, Southwest Germany. Tributaries to the Neckar River draining to the North show higher rates than tributaries draining to the South into the Danube River causing a retreat of the Swabian Alb escarpment. Observations are discussed in the light of lithology, climate, and topography. The data are further compared to other rates over space and time as well as to global data.
Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1027–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1027-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive rock slope failures are a significant alpine hazard and change the Earth's surface. Therefore, we must understand what controls the preparation of such events. By correlating 4 years of slope displacements with meteorological and seismic data, we found that water from rain and snowmelt is the most important driver. Our approach is applicable to similar sites and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in rain intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of slope failure.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Abhishek Kashyap, Kristen Cook, and Mukunda Dev Behera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1618, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-mountain floods exhibit a significant geomorphic hazard, often triggered by rapid snowmelt, extreme precipitation, glacial lake outbursts, and natural failures of dams. Such high-magnitude floods can have catastrophic impacts on downstream communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. These floods demonstrate the significance of understanding the complex interaction of climatic, hydrological, and geological forces in high mountain regions.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Natalie Barbosa, Johannes Leinauer, Juilson Jubanski, Michael Dietze, Ulrich Münzer, Florian Siegert, and Michael Krautblatter
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 249–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Massive sediment pulses in catchments are a key alpine multi-risk component. Combining high-resolution aerial imagery and seismic information, we decipher a multi-stage >130.000 m³ rockfall and subsequent sediment pulses over 4 years, reflecting sediment deposition up to 10 m, redistribution in the basin, and finally debouchure to the outlet. This study provides generic information on spatial and temporal patterns of massive sediment pulses in highly charged alpine catchments.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Aaron Bufe, Kristen L. Cook, Albert Galy, Hella Wittmann, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 513–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Erosion modulates Earth's carbon cycle by exposing a variety of lithologies to chemical weathering. We measured water chemistry in streams on the eastern Tibetan Plateau that drain either metasedimentary or granitoid rocks. With increasing erosion, weathering shifts from being a CO2 sink to being a CO2 source for both lithologies. However, metasedimentary rocks typically weather 2–10 times faster than granitoids, with implications for the role of lithology in modulating the carbon cycle.
Michael Dietze, Sebastian Kreutzer, Margret C. Fuchs, and Sascha Meszner
Geochronology, 4, 323–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The R package sandbox is a collection of functions that allow the creation, sampling and analysis of fully virtual sediment sections, like having a virtual twin of real-world deposits. This article introduces the concept, features, and workflows required to use sandbox. It shows how a real-world sediment section can be mapped into the model and subsequently addresses a series of theoretical and practical questions, exploiting the flexibility of the model framework.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Jana Ulrich, Felix S. Fauer, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The characteristics of extreme precipitation on different timescales as well as in different seasons are relevant information, e.g., for designing hydrological structures or managing water supplies. Therefore, our aim is to describe these characteristics simultaneously within one model. We find similar characteristics for short extreme precipitation at all considered stations in Germany but pronounced regional differences with respect to the seasonality of long-lasting extreme events.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Benedetta Dini, Georgina L. Bennett, Aldina M. A. Franco, Michael R. Z. Whitworth, Kristen L. Cook, Andreas Senn, and John M. Reynolds
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 295–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use long-range smart sensors connected to a network based on the Internet of Things to explore the possibility of detecting hazardous boulder movements in real time. Prior to the 2019 monsoon season we inserted the devices in 23 boulders spread over debris flow channels and a landslide in northeastern Nepal. The data obtained in this pilot study show the potential of this technology to be used in remote hazard-prone areas in future early warning systems.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Kristen L. Cook and Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1009–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
UAVs have become popular tools for detecting topographic changes. Traditionally, detecting small amounts of change between two UAV surveys requires each survey to be highly accurate. We take an alternative approach and present a simple processing workflow that produces survey pairs or sets that are highly consistent with each other, even when the overall accuracy is relatively low. This greatly increases our ability to detect changes in settings where ground control is not possible.
Elisabeth Dietze and Michael Dietze
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 29–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-29-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sedimentary deposits provide insights into past Earth surface dynamics via the size distribution of mineral grains documenting the erosion, transport and deposition history. This study introduces structured procedures to decipher the distinct grain-size distributions of sediment samples that were mixed during/after deposition, using the free statistical tool EMMAgeo. Compared with other algorithms, EMMAgeo is unique as it provides uncertainty estimates and allows expert knowledge to be included.
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
Odin Marc, Robert Behling, Christoff Andermann, Jens M. Turowski, Luc Illien, Sigrid Roessner, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 107–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-107-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped eight monsoon-related (> 100 m2) and large (> 0.1 km2) landslides in the Nepal Himalayas since 1970. Adding inventories of Holocene landslides, giant landslides (> 1 km3), and landslides from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, we constrain the size–frequency distribution of monsoon- and earthquake-induced landslides. Both contribute ~50 % to a long-term (> 10 kyr) total erosion of ~2 mm yr-1, matching the long-term exhumation rate. Large landslides rarer than 10Be sampling time drive erosion.
Michael Dietze
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 669–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental seismology is the study of the seismic signals emitted by Earth surface processes. This emerging research field is at the intersection of many Earth science disciplines. The overarching scope requires free integrative software that is accepted across scientific disciplines, such as R. The article introduces the R package "eseis" and illustrates its conceptual structure, available functions, and worked examples.
Jonas Laudan, Viktor Rözer, Tobias Sieg, Kristin Vogel, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany, in May 2016 was a severe and rather unfamiliar event which caused high monetary losses and heavy damage to buildings. Between 7 and 8 June we investigated all affected houses and conducted damage assessment to gain insights into the damage driving factors of those events. We conclude that the damage driving factors are complex and also differ partly from those of riverine floods, pointing out the need for further research.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Michael Dietze, Jens M. Turowski, Kristen L. Cook, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 757–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-757-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfall is an essential geomorphic process and a hazard in steep landscapes which is hard to constrain with traditional approaches. Seismic methods allow for the detection, location, characterisation and linking of events to triggers by lag times. This new technique reveals 49 rockfalls in 6 months with seasonally varying locations. Freeze–thaw action accounts for only 5 events, whereas 19 rockfalls were caused by rain with a 1 h peak lag time, and 17 events were due to diurnal thermal forcing.
Michael Dietze, Solmaz Mohadjer, Jens M. Turowski, Todd A. Ehlers, and Niels Hovius
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 653–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-653-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use a seismometer network to detect and locate rockfalls, a key process shaping steep mountain landscapes. When tested against laser scan surveys, all seismically detected events could be located with an average deviation of 81 m. Seismic monitoring provides insight to the dynamics of individual rockfalls, which can be as small as 0.0053 m3. Thus, seismic methods provide unprecedented temporal, spatial and kinematic details about this important process.
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Katrin M. Nissen and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated. A novel technique records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency and size of heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase. Moreover, the most severe events are predicted for future periods.
Stefan Steger, Alexander Brenning, Rainer Bell, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2729–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2729-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the propagation of landslide inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models by artificially introducing such spatial inaccuracies. The findings highlight that (i) an increasing positional error is related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results, (ii) interrelations between inventory-based errors and modelling results are complex, and (iii) inventory-based errors can be counteracted by adapting the study design.
Alexander R. Beer, James W. Kirchner, and Jens M. Turowski
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 885–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-885-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial bedrock erosion data from stream channels are important for engineering issues and landscape evolution model assessment. However, acquiring such data is challenging and only few data sets exist. Detecting changes in repeated photographs of painted bedrock surfaces easily allows for semi-quantitative conclusions on the spatial distribution of sediment transport and its effects: abrasion on surfaces facing the streamflow and shielding of surfaces by abundant sediment.
Patric Kellermann, Christine Schönberger, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2357–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, 2016
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Annegret H. Thieken, Tina Bessel, Sarah Kienzler, Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Sebastian Pisi, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in central Europe, especially in Germany. The paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data, and how good data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international level, e.g. by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
U. Dayan, K. Nissen, and U. Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2525–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2525-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This review discusses published studies analyzing the atmospheric conditions that induce extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean regions. It presents a systematic description of the interlacing role of several atmospheric processes of different scales - local, meso, and synoptic - that enable the development of torrential rains.
P. Kellermann, A. Schöbel, G. Kundela, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2485–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, 2015
M. C. Fuchs, R. Gloaguen, S. Merchel, E. Pohl, V. A. Sulaymonova, C. Andermann, and G. Rugel
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 423–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-423-2015, 2015
A. Lucía, F. Comiti, M. Borga, M. Cavalli, and L. Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1741–1755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, 2015
E. Pohl, M. Knoche, R. Gloaguen, C. Andermann, and P. Krause
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 333–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-333-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-333-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A semi-distributed hydrological model is used to analyse the hydrological cycle of a glaciated high-mountain catchment in the Pamirs.
We overcome data scarcity by utilising various raster data sets as meteorological input. Temperature in combination with the amount of snow provided in winter play the key role in the annual cycle.
This implies that expected Earth surface processes along precipitation and altitude gradients differ substantially.
A. R. Beer and J. M. Turowski
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 291–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-291-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-291-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a spatiotemporally highly resolved dataset of discharge, sediment transport and bedrock erosion data to assess the validity of landscape evolution models at the process scale (resolution of square meters and minutes). The tools effect is found to be the dominant driver of erosion and an easy model is able to predict measured erosion. For larger scales common discharge-dependend modeling with a discharge threshold is adequate to regive the overal trend of the erosion signal.
S. Kienzler, I. Pech, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
S. Uhlemann, A. H. Thieken, and B. Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014, 2014
H. Cammerer, A. H. Thieken, and J. Lammel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013
C. Pfurtscheller and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2619–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Brief Communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Tangible and intangible ex-post assessment of flood-induced damages to cultural heritage
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed populations in compound flood analysis
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Invited perspectives: Safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Integrating multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure: A case study for Quang Nam province, Vietnam
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Mind the Gap: Misalignment Between Drought Monitoring and Community Realities
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data, but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data, and climate change. Counterfactuals, or "what if" scenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve future flood preparation.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-104, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The work describes the flood damages to cultural heritage (CH) occurred in the event of September 2022 in Central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts to cultural heritage are rare and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of the flood, i.e., water depth and flow velocity. The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Andrew Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the studies on compound flooding assume events that generate extreme rainfall and coastal water level responses originate from a single population, in reality, they originate from multiple populations each with unique statistical characteristics. This paper presents a flexible statistical framework for assessing the compound flood potential from multiple flood drivers that explicitly accounts for different event types.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1088, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influence of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven flood are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful for decision-making. We propose a new validation framework that considers not only technical aspects but also the real-world context in which decisions are made. By applying this framework to flood emergency planning, we demonstrate its practicality.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study produced a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explored multi-hazards assessment and risk through a machine learning modelling approach. The process includes (1) collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data, (2) developing models for multi-hazards assessment and coding in Google Earth Engine, and (3) producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In Northeast Brazil, we assess official data against local experiences, finding data mismatches and blindspots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blindspots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Cited articles
Baudrick, C. and Grant, G.: When do logs move in rivers, Water Resour. Res., 36, 571–583, 2000. a
Bell, F.: Environmental and engineering Geology, Whittles Pub. Ltd., ISBN-10 1849951241, 2007. a
Bell, R., Dietze, M., Thieken, A., Cook, K., Andermann, C., Beer, A., Vela, A. L., Ries, J. B., Brell, M., Eltner, A., Roessner, S., Schrott, L., Iserloh, T., Seeger, M., and Öztürk, U.: More than just fast flowing water: the landscape impact of the July 2021 west Germany flood, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11641, 2022. a
Berger, C., McArdell, B. W., and Schlunegger, F.: Sediment transfer patterns at
the Illgraben catchment, Switzerland: Implications for the time scales of
debris flow activities, Geomorphology, 125, 421–432,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.10.019, 2011. a
Bronstert, A., Crisologo, I., Heistermann, M., Ozturk, U., Vogel, K., and
Wendi, D.: Flash-Floods: More Often, More Severe, More Damaging? An Analysis
of Hydro-geo-environmental Conditions and Anthropogenic Impacts, in: The
Oxford Handbook of Innovation, edited by: Leal Filho, W., Nagy, G., Borga, M.,
Chávez Muñoz, P., and Magnuszewski, A., 9–12, Springer, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_12, 2020. a
CEMS: European Emergeny Management Service, https://emergency.copernicus.eu/, last access: 11 February 2022. a
Cook, K., Rekapalli, R., Dietze, M., Pilz, M., Cesca, S., Purnachandra, R.,
Srinagesh, D., Paul, H., Metz, M., Dahm, T., Mandal, P., Suresh, G., Cotton,
F., Tiwari, V., and Hovius, N.: Detection and potential early warning of
catastrophic flow events with regional seismic networks, Science, 374, 87–92, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1227, 2021. a
Damm, B., Becht, M., Varga, K., and Heckmann, T.: Relevance of tectonic and
structural parameters in Triassic bedrock formations to landslide
susceptibility in Quaternary hillslope sediments, Quatern. Int.,
222, 143–153, 2010. a
Damm, B., Terhorst, B., and Ottner, F.: Geotechnical properties of periglacial
cover beds, in: Mid-Latitude Slope Deposits, edited by: Kleber, A. and
Terhorst, B., 153–170, Developments of Sedimentology, ISBN 978-0-444-53118-6, 2013. a
Demuth, N., Gerlach, N., van der Heijden, S., and Johst, M.: Starkregen und
Hochwasser in Rheinland-Pfalz im Mai/Juni 2016,
http://www.hochwasser-rlp.de/publikationen/bericht_starkregen_hochwasser_juni2016.pdf,
last access: 11 February 2022 (in German). a
Dietze, M. and Ozturk, U.: A flood of disaster response challenges, Science,
373, 1317–1318, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm0617, 2021. a, b, c
Dietze, M., Cook, K., Illien, L., Rach, O., Puffpaff, S., Stodian, I., and
Hovius, N.: Impact of nested moisture cycles on cliff coast failure revealed
by multi-seasonal seismic and topographic surveys, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 125, e2019JF005487, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005487,
2020. a
DWD:
https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/DE/2021/Downloads/20210825_warnchronologie.pdf? (last access: 11 February 2022), 2021. a
DWD-Agrowetter:
https://www.dwd.de/EN/specialusers/agriculture/agriculture_node.html,
last access: 11 February 2022. a
Ekström, G. and Stark, C. P.: Simple Scaling of Catastrophic Landslide
Dynamics, Science, 339, 1416–1419, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1232887, 2013. a
Fauer, F. S., Ulrich, J., Jurado, O. E., and Rust, H. W.: Flexible and consistent quantile estimation for intensity–duration–frequency curves, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021. a
Fekete, A. and Sandholz, S.: Here Comes the Flood, but Not Failure? Lessons to
Learn after the Heavy Rain and Pluvial Floods in Germany 2021, Water, 13,
3016, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213016, 2021. a
Giuseppe, F., Simoni, S., Godt, J. W., Lu, N., and Rigon, R.: Geomorphological
control on variably saturated hillslope hydrology and slope instability,
Water Res. Resour., 52, 4590–4607, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017626, 2021. a
Hu, X., Zhou, L., Liu, W., Wang, H., and Cui, L.: Geomorphic effect of
debris-flow sediments on the Min River, Wenchuan Earthquake region, western
China, J. Mt. Sci., 18, 2427–2440, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6816-1, 2021. a
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I
to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 3−-32, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021. a
Jerolmack, D. and Paola, C.: Shredding of environmental signals by sediment
transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19401,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044638, 2010. a
Jochner, M., Turowski, J. M., Badoux, A., Stoffel, M., and Rickli, C.: The role of log jams and exceptional flood events in mobilizing coarse particulate organic matter in a steep headwater stream, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, 2015. a
Junghänel, T., Bissolli, P., Daßler, J., Fleckenstein, R., Imbery, F.,
Janssen, W., Kaspar, F., Lengfeld, K., Leppelt, T., Rauthe-Schöch, M.,
Roeck, M., Walawender, E., and Weigl, E.: Hydro-klimatologische Einordnung
der Stark- und Dauerniederschläge in Teilen Deutschlands im Zusammenhang mit
dem Tiefdruckgebiet “Bernd” vom 12 bis 19 Juli 2021, Report DWD
German Weather Bureau, 2021 (in German). a
Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Grunenberg, H., Ullrich, K., and Sommer, T.: Extent, perception and mitigation of damage due to high groundwater levels in the city of Dresden, Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1247–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1247-2009, 2009. a
Laudan, J., Rözer, V., Sieg, T., Vogel, K., and Thieken, A. H.: Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017. a, b
Lucia, A., Schweintek, M., Eberle, J., and Zarfl, C.: Planform changes and
large wood dynamics in two torrents during a severe flash flood in
Braunsbach, Germany 2016, Sci. Total Environ., 640–641,
315–326, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.186, 2018. a
Molina, A., Govers, G., Van den Putte, A., Poesen, J., and Vanacker, V.: Assessing the reduction of the hydrological connectivity of gully systems through vegetation restoration: field experiments and numerical modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1823–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1823-2009, 2009. a
Okamoto, T., Takebayashi, H., Sanjou, M., Suzuki, R., and Toda, K.: Log jam
formation at bridges and the effect on floodplain flow: A flume experiment,
J. Flood Risk Manag., 13, e12562,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12562, 2020. a
Ozturk, U., Wendi, D., Crisologo, I., Riemer, A., Agarwal, A., Vogel, K.,
López-Tarazón, J., and Korup, O.: Rare flash floods and debris flows in
southern Germany, Sci. Total Environ., 626, 941–952,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.172, 2018. a
Schalko, I., Schmoker, L., Weitbrecht, V., and Boes, R.: Backwater Rise due to
Large Wood Accumulations, J. Hydraul. Eng., 144, 04018056,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001501, 2018. a
Schmid-Johannsen, J., Lang, U., and Heiliger, N.: SWR-Datenanalyse zur
Flutkatastrophe an der Ahr, SWR Aktuell, 24 November 2021,
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/flut-in-ahrweiler-so-gross-ist-der-schaden-104.html (last access: 11 February 2022), 2021. a
Thieken, A. H., Bessel, T., Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Pisi, S., and Schröter, K.: The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016. a
Thieken, A., Kemter, M., Vorogushyn, S., Berghäuser, L., Sieg, T., Natho, S.,
Mohor, G., Petrow, T., Merz, B., and Bronstert, A.: Extreme Hochwasser
bleiben trotz integriertem Risikomanagement eine Herausforderung,
https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin/projects/extrass/Flut2021_StatementThiekenEtAl.pdf (last access: 11 February 2022), 2021. a
Thieken, A. H., Samprogna Mohor, G., Kreibich, H., and Müller, M.: Compound inland flood events: different pathways, different impacts and different coping options, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022.
a
Thieken, A. H., Bubeck, P., Heidenreich, A., von Keyserlingk, J., Dillenardt, L., and Otto, A.: Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-244, 2022. a
van der Wiel, K., Lenderink, G., and de Vries, H.: Physical storylines of
future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling,
Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350,
2021. a
Walter, F., Burtin, A., McArdell, B. W., Hovius, N., Weder, B., and Turowski, J. M.: Testing seismic amplitude source location for fast debris-flow detection at Illgraben, Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 939–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-939-2017, 2017. a
Wenzel, T., Bell, R., Dietze, M., Schrott, L., Beer, A., Braun, A., and Fernandez-Steeger, T.: Hillslope failure due to stream undercutting: The 2021 flood event in the Ahr-valley and resulting mass movements – a multi-method approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7116, 2022. a
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint