Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, 2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, 2022
Research article
27 Apr 2022
Research article | 27 Apr 2022

Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Max Schneider et al.

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Cited articles

Ash, K. D., Schumann III, R. L., and Bowser, G. C.: Tornado warning trade-offs: Evaluating choices for visually communicating risk, Weather Clim. Soc., 6, 104–118, 2014. a, b, c, d
Becker, J. S., Potter, S., McBride, S., Wein, A., Doyle, E., and Paton, D.: When the earth doesn't stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 34, 397–411, 2019. a
Becker, J. S., Potter, S. H., McBride, S. K., H. Doyle, E. E., Gerstenberger, M. C., and Christophersen, A.: Forecasting for a Fractured Land: A Case Study of the Communication and Use of Aftershock Forecasts from the 2016 M w 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand, Seismol. Res. Lett., 91, 3343–3357, 2020. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Final-revised paper