Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022
Research article
27 Apr 2022
Research article | 27 Apr 2022

Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Max Schneider et al.

Data sets

Communicating earthquake risk M. Schneider, M. McDowell, P. Guttorp, E. A. Steel, and N. Fleischhut https://osf.io/y47sg/?view_only=5436764742984f48b164c89143915f8f

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Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
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