Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Research article
27 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 27 Apr 2022

Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut

Data sets

Communicating earthquake risk M. Schneider, M. McDowell, P. Guttorp, E. A. Steel, and N. Fleischhut

Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Final-revised paper