Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2022
| 12 Apr 2022
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Katherine L. Towey
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth and Environmental Science, The Graduate Center, City University
of New York, New York, NY, 10016, USA
James F. Booth
Earth and Environmental Science, The Graduate Center, City University
of New York, New York, NY, 10016, USA
Earth and Atmospheric Science, The City College of New York, City
University of New York, New York, NY, 10031, USA
Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center
for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL,
32816, USA
Thomas Wahl
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center
for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL,
32816, USA
Related authors
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Ziyu Chen, Philip M. Orton, James F. Booth, Thomas Wahl, Arthur DeGaetano, Joel Kaatz, and Radley M. Horton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3101–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3101-2025, 2025
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Urban flooding can be driven by rain and storm surge or the combination of the two, which is called compound flooding. In this study, we analyzed hourly historical rain and surge data for New York City to provide a more detailed statistical analysis than prior studies of this topic. The analyses reveal that tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes) have potential for causing more extreme compound floods than other storms, while extratropical cyclones cause less extreme, more frequent compound events.
Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Pravin Maduwantha, Alejandra R. Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1938, 2025
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Traditional flood assessments use an event-based approach, assuming flood risk matches the chance of flood drivers. However, flooding also depends on topography and the spatio-temporal features of events. The response-based approach uses many events to estimate flood hazard directly. In Gloucester City (NJ, U.S.), we find that frequent events can cause rare (1 %) flood levels due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. Including these factors is key for accurate flood hazard estimates.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, Sönke Dangendorf, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Compound flooding occurs when multiple drivers, such as heavy rain and storm surge, occur simultaneously. Comprehensive compound flood risk assessments require simulating a many storm events using flood models, but such historical data are limited. To address this, we developed a statistical framework to generate large numbers of synthetic yet realistic storm events for use in flood modeling.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
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Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Jordan Eissner, David Mechem, Yi Jin, Virendra Ghate, and James Booth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3438, 2025
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Low-level clouds have important radiative feedbacks and can occur in a range of meteorological conditions, yet our knowledge and prediction of them are insufficient. We evaluate model forecasts of low-level cloud properties across a cold front and the associated environments that they form in. The model represents the meteorological conditions well and produces broken clouds behind the cold front in areas of strong surface forcing, large stability, and large-scale subsiding motion.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
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When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Sönke Dangendorf, Qiang Sun, Thomas Wahl, Philip Thompson, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Ben Hamlington
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3471–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024, 2024
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Sea-level information from the global ocean is sparse in time and space, with comprehensive data being limited to the period since 2005. Here we provide a novel reconstruction of sea level and its contributing causes, as determined by a Kalman smoother approach applied to tide gauge records over the period 1900–2021. The new reconstruction shows a continuing acceleration in global mean sea-level rise since 1970 that is dominated by melting land ice. Contributors vary significantly by region.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
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This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
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We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Jiayi Fang, Thomas Wahl, Jian Fang, Xun Sun, Feng Kong, and Min Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021
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A comprehensive assessment of compound flooding potential is missing for China. We investigate dependence, drivers, and impacts of storm surge and precipitation for coastal China. Strong dependence exists between driver combinations, with variations of seasons and thresholds. Sea level rise escalates compound flood potential. Meteorology patterns are pronounced for low and high compound flood potential. Joint impacts from surge and precipitation were much higher than from each individually.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
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In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Robert Jane, Luis Cadavid, Jayantha Obeysekera, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2681–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2681-2020, 2020
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Full dependence is assumed between drivers in flood protection assessments of coastal water control structures in south Florida. A 2-D analysis of rainfall and coastal water level showed that the magnitude of the conservative assumption in the original design is highly sensitive to the regional sea level rise projection considered. The vine copula and HT04 model outperformed five higher-dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between rainfall, coastal water level, and groundwater level.
Veeshan Narinesingh, James F. Booth, Spencer K. Clark, and Yi Ming
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 293–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-293-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-293-2020, 2020
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This work investigates the influence of orography on atmospheric blocking dynamics, spatial frequency, and duration. Using an idealized model, a landless integration and integrations with mountains are analyzed. The dynamical evolution of blocking in the idealized model is found to be similar to reanalysis. Orography is found to significantly increase blocking and anchors where blocks most likely occur (i.e., just upstream from mountains and near storm track exits).
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
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When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Hugo Winter, Robert Neal, Thomas Wahl, Amélie Joly-Laugel, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3117–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019, 2019
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Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability.
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The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
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Estimates of the risk posed by rare and catastrophic weather events are often derived from relatively short measurement records, which renders them highly uncertain. We investigate if (and by how much) this uncertainty can be reduced by making use of large datasets of simulated weather. More specifically, we focus on coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands and on the challenge of estimating the once in 10 million years coastal water level and wind stress as accurately as possible.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
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Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
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Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
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Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
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In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
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Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
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We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
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We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
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Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
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We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
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Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Lixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
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The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
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The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
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The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
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Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
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Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
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Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
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A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
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Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
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Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
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Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
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What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
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The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
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Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The...
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