Articles | Volume 21, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping: hazard probability assessment through the combination of Bayesian model and fuzzy set theory
Huijun Li
Laboratory Cultivation Base of Environment Process and Digital Simulation, Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Key Laboratory
of 3-Dimensional Information Acquisition and Application, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048, China
Laboratory Cultivation Base of Environment Process and Digital Simulation, Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Key Laboratory
of 3-Dimensional Information Acquisition and Application, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048, China
Gaoxuan Guo
Beijing Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, Beijing,
China
Yan Zhang
Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geological Disaster, Ministry of
Natural Resources, Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu, China
Zhenxue Dai
College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun,
130026, China
Xiaojuan Li
Laboratory Cultivation Base of Environment Process and Digital Simulation, Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Key Laboratory
of 3-Dimensional Information Acquisition and Application, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048, China
Linzhen Chang
Fourth Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, Hebei Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources Exploration, Hebei, China
Pietro Teatini
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padua, Padua 35121, Italy
Land Subsidence International Initiative (UNESCO LaSII),
Querétaro, Mexico
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Jiahui Zhou, Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Huijun Li, Liping Zheng, Rui Cheng, and Hanrui Sun
Proc. IAHS, 382, 391–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-391-2020, 2020
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Land subsidence is a serious geo-hazard in Beijing Plain, which has threatened the safety of the operation of the metropolis. This study derived the vertical and the East-West deformation, and the spatial variation and the impact factors of the vertical and the East-West deformation were analyzed. It found that the extraction of groundwater is the dominant factor affecting the spatial distribution of the vertical displacement, while the dominant factor of East-West deformation is not obvious.
Huijun Li, Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Hanrui Sun, and Jie Yu
Proc. IAHS, 382, 505–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-505-2020, 2020
Xiaoying Zhang, Fan Dong, Guangquan Chen, and Zhenxue Dai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-83-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-83-2023, 2023
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In a data-driven framework, groundwater levels can generally only be calculated 1 time step ahead. We discuss the advance prediction with longer forecast periods rather than single time steps by constructing a model based on a temporal convolutional network. Model accuracy and efficiency were further compared with an LSTM-based model. The two models derived in this study can help people cope with the uncertainty of what might occur in hydrological scenarios under the threat of climate change.
Claudia Zoccarato, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Pietro Teatini, and Jonathan G. Bridgeman
Proc. IAHS, 382, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, 2020
Roberto Tomás, José Luis Pastor, Marta Béjar-Pizarro, Roberta Bonì, Pablo Ezquerro, José Antonio Fernández-Merodo, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Gerardo Herrera, Claudia Meisina, Pietro Teatini, Francesco Zucca, Claudia Zoccarato, and Andrea Franceschini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 353–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-353-2020, 2020
Pietro Teatini, Cristina Da Lio, Luigi Tosi, Alessandro Bergamasco, Stefano Pasqual, Paolo Simonini, Veronica Girardi, Paolo Zorzan, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimiliano Ferronato, Marcella Roner, Marco Marani, Andrea D'Alpaos, Simonetta Cola, and Giuseppe Zambon
Proc. IAHS, 382, 345–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, 2020
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An in-situ loading test was carried out in the Lazzaretto Nuovo salt-marsh in the Venice Lagoon, Italy. The test was aimed at characterizing the geotechnical properties of soils forming the marsh sedimentary body deposits. In fact porosity and compressibility are of paramount importance to quantify consolidation versus accretion and relative sea level rise. The fate of coastal marshlands in the next future will strongly depend of these processes.
Roberta Bonì, Claudia Meisina, Pietro Teatini, Francesco Zucca, Claudia Zoccarato, Andrea Franceschini, Pablo Ezquerro, Marta Béjar-Pizarro, José A. Fernández-Merodo, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, José L. Pastor, Roberto Tomás, and Gerardo Herrera
Proc. IAHS, 382, 409–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-409-2020, 2020
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The potential of the integrated use of A-DInSAR data and 3D groundwater flow and geomechanical models to capture and assess aquifer dynamics is performed. The approach has been applied to investigate the response during and after pumping of a portion of the Madrid aquifer. The short time delay (about one month) between the groundwater pumping and the system response (land displacements) are likely due to a minor role played by the clayey layers.
Laura Gazzola, Massimiliano Ferronato, Matteo Frigo, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Anna Antonia Irene Corradi, Maria Carolina Dacome, Ernesto Della Rossa, Michela De Simoni, and Stefano Mantica
Proc. IAHS, 382, 457–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-457-2020, 2020
Massimiliano Ferronato, Matteo Frigo, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, and Claudia Zoccarato
Proc. IAHS, 382, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, 2020
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The regular monitoring of radioactive marker positions along a vertical borehole can provide in-situ measurements of deep rock compaction. Developed in the ‘70s, in recent years the effectiveness of this technology has been often debated. The present communication analyses the state of the art of the radioactive marker technique and provides a critical review on the role that these measurements might play in the future evolution of land subsidence monitoring and modelling.
Luigi Bruno, Bruno Campo, Bianca Costagli, Esther Stouthamer, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, and Alessandro Amorosi
Proc. IAHS, 382, 285–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-285-2020, 2020
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The effects of land subsidence could be devastating on heavily settled coastal plains. In a scenario of sea-level rise, high costs are expected to protect coastal cities and touristic hotspots and to keep drained reclaimed lands. In this work, we calculated subsidence rates (SR) in the Po coastal plain, over the last 5.6 and 120 thousand years, providing information about land movements before human intervention became the main driver of subsidence, through water and gas withdrawal.
Jiahui Zhou, Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Huijun Li, Liping Zheng, Rui Cheng, and Hanrui Sun
Proc. IAHS, 382, 391–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-391-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-391-2020, 2020
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Land subsidence is a serious geo-hazard in Beijing Plain, which has threatened the safety of the operation of the metropolis. This study derived the vertical and the East-West deformation, and the spatial variation and the impact factors of the vertical and the East-West deformation were analyzed. It found that the extraction of groundwater is the dominant factor affecting the spatial distribution of the vertical displacement, while the dominant factor of East-West deformation is not obvious.
Di Zhou, Jie Yu, Lin Zhu, Yanbing Wang, Jing Zhang, Shuai Jiao, and Ren Shu Chen
Proc. IAHS, 382, 249–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-249-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-249-2020, 2020
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To overcome the problem that layover scatterers with no amplitude stability and spatial coherence are lead to reliability insufficient and accuracy reduction in monitoring urban land subsidence, we applied the Fast Fourier Transform to convert Persistent Scatterers to frequency domain during the PS-InSAR identification process. The method could identify and separate single and layover scatterers, reduced the effect of layover scatterers, improved the accuracy of urban land subsidence monitoring.
Luigi Tosi, Cristina Da Lio, Sandra Donnici, Tazio Strozzi, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 689–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-689-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-689-2020, 2020
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The Venice coastland forms the major low-lying area in Italy and encompasses a variety of environments, such as farmlands, estuaries, deltas, lagoons and urbanized areas. Since most of the territory lies at a ground elevation below or slightly above the mean sea-level, also a few mm/yr of land subsidence can seriously impacts on the coastal system. In this study, we present an analysis of the vulnerability to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) considering an uneven land subsidence distribution.
Huijun Li, Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Hanrui Sun, and Jie Yu
Proc. IAHS, 382, 505–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-505-2020, 2020
Matteo Frigo, Massimiliano Ferronato, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimo Antonelli, Anna Antonia Irene Corradi, Maria Carolina Dacome, Michela De Simoni, and Stefano Mantica
Proc. IAHS, 382, 449–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, 2020
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The numerical prediction of land subsidence above producing reservoirs can be affected by a number of uncertainties due to several factors. In this work, we use a Bayesian approach to reduce the initial uncertainties about the mechanical parameters in order to improve the reliability of land subsidence predictions.
The numerical results obtained in an experiment on a real-world gas field confirms that is a valuable and effective approach.
Giovanni Isotton, Pietro Teatini, Raffaele Stefanelli, Massimiliano Ferronato, Carlo Janna, Matteo Cerri, and Timur Gukov
Proc. IAHS, 382, 475–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-475-2020, 2020
Lin Guo, Huili Gong, Xiaojuan Li, Lin Zhu, Wei Lv, and Mingyuan Lyu
Proc. IAHS, 382, 291–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-291-2020, 2020
Mariano Cerca, Dora Carreón-Freyre, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 433–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, 2020
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This work reports results of experiments made in analogue materials reproducing the occurrence and propagation of fractures associated with land subsidence driven by groundwater pumping. We compare the physical experimental model results with a numerical model that tests the development of stresses above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of an aquifer.
Yueting Li, Matteo Frigo, Yan Zhang, Lin Zhu, Massimiliano Ferronato, Carlo Janna, Xulong Gong, Jun Yu, Pietro Teatini, and Shujun Ye
Proc. IAHS, 382, 511–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-511-2020, 2020
Luo Yong, Zhao Long, Zhu Lin, Tian Fang, Lei Kunchao, and Sun Aihua
Proc. IAHS, 382, 715–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-715-2020, 2020
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This article established a groundwater–subsidence model in a typical land subsidence region and classified an early land subsidence warning zone based on the results from the model. If the pumping of groundwater from the second and fourth aquifers was reduced by 50 % and pumping from the third aquifer was reduced by 60 %, the early warning level for land subsidence would be greatly reduced and would meet the requirements for land subsidence control.
Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimiliano Ferronato, Andrea Franceschini, Matteo Frigo, Carlo Janna, and Giovanni Isotton
Proc. IAHS, 382, 539–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-539-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-539-2020, 2020
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A critical issue concerning geomechanical safety for underground gas storage in compartmentalized reservoirs is fault reactivation. An in-depth modelling investigation was carried out for the typical UGS geological setting and operations in the Netherlands. The specific goals of the study are explaining the mechanisms responsible for seismic events unexpectedly recorded during UGS phases and understanding which are the critical factors that increase the probability of fault reactivation.
Luigi Tosi, Cristina Da Lio, Pietro Teatini, Antonio Menghini, and Andrea Viezzoli
Proc. IAHS, 379, 387–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-387-2018, 2018
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We have depicted the continental and marine surficial water–groundwater interactions in a large portion of the coastland encompassing the southern Venice lagoon and the northern Po river delta. The saltwater-fresh water transition zone is very irregularly-shaped and mainly depends on the morphologic setting and the subsoil architecture. An over-consolidated Pleistocene clay layer and buried Holocene sandy paleo-channels and paleo-ridge systems controlled the
saltwater-fresh water exchanges.
S. Jiao, J. Yu, Y. Wang, L. Zhu, and Q. Zhou
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3, 691–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-691-2018, 2018
Pietro Teatini, Giovanni Isotton, Stefano Nardean, Massimiliano Ferronato, Annamaria Mazzia, Cristina Da Lio, Luca Zaggia, Debora Bellafiore, Massimo Zecchin, Luca Baradello, Francisco Cellone, Fabiana Corami, Andrea Gambaro, Giovanni Libralato, Elisa Morabito, Annamaria Volpi Ghirardini, Riccardo Broglia, Stefano Zaghi, and Luigi Tosi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5627–5646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5627-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5627-2017, 2017
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We investigate the effects of digging a navigable canal on the hydrogeological system underlying a coastal lagoon. The research has been promoted by the Venice Water Authority, which is investigating different possibilities to avoid the passage of large cruise ships through the historic center of Venice, Italy. Numerical simulations supported by a proper hydrogeological characterization show that the exchange of water and contaminants from the subsurface and surface systems will be significant.
Ahmad Ali Behroozmand, Pietro Teatini, Jesper Bjergsted Pedersen, Esben Auken, Omar Tosatto, and Anders Vest Christiansen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1527–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1527-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1527-2017, 2017
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Within the framework of the EU project IMPROWARE, our goal was to investigate a Mediterranean coastal aquifer in Egypt and develop scenarios for artificial aquifer remediation and recharge. The results of an extensive hydrogeophysical investigation were successfully used as an input in regional and local hydrological models to understand the hydrological evolution of the area. The research outcomes clearly highlight the effectiveness of using advanced geophysical and modeling methodologies.
Jingming Hou, Ye Yuan, Peitao Wang, Zhiyuan Ren, and Xiaojuan Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 335–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-335-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-335-2017, 2017
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This paper is an attempt to develop a rapid tsunami evacuation decision support system for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly provide information to assist with the tsunami evacuation operations.
Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Zhenxue Dai, Gaoxuan Guo, and Pietro Teatini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, 2017
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We developed a method to characterize the distribution and variance of the hydraulic conductivity k in a multiple-zone alluvial fan by fusing multiple-source data. Consistently with the scales of the sedimentary transport energy, the k variance of the various facies decreases from the upper to the lower portion along the flow direction. The 3-D distribution of k is consistent with that of the facies. The potentialities of the proposed approach are tested on the Chaobai River megafan, China.
L. Zhu, J. Yu, Y. Liu, H. Gong, Y. Chen, and B. Chen
Proc. IAHS, 372, 227–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-227-2015, 2015
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The earth fissures of geological structure are visualized in three dimensional domains through a volumetric modeling method. The topological relations between TIN, triangular prism and lines are constructed for further spatial calculation. This method can facilitate the mechanism for studying fissures.
C. Zoccarato, D. Baù, F. Bottazzi, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Mantica, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 351–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-351-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-351-2015, 2015
A. Franceschini, P. Teatini, C. Janna, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Ye, and D. Carreón-Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, 2015
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The stress variation induced by overdraft of aquifers in sedimentary basins may cause ground rupture in the form of activation of pre-existing faults or earth fissure generation. The process is severely threatening many areas in China and Mexico. Ruptures yield discontinuity in the displacement and stress fields that classic finite element (FE) models cannot address. We proved how Lagrangian approach provides more stable solutions than Penalty approach.
L. Tosi, T. Strozzi, C. Da Lio, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 199–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-199-2015, 2015
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Eighty regular TerraSAR-X acquisitions over the 2008-2011 period significantly improve the subsidence monitoring at the Venice coastland. Settlements of 30-35 mm/yr have been detected at the three lagoon inlets in correspondence of the MoSE works. The Venice and Chioggia historical centers show local sinking bowls up to 10 mm/yr connected with the construction of new large buildings or restoration works. In the city of Venice, the mean subsidence of 1.1±1.0 mm/yr confirms its general stability.
S. Ye, Y. Wang, J. Wu, P. Teatini, J. Yu, X. Gong, and G. Wang
Proc. IAHS, 372, 249–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-249-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-249-2015, 2015
S. Ye, Y. Luo, J. Wu, P. Teatini, H. Wang, and X. Jiao
Proc. IAHS, 372, 443–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-443-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-443-2015, 2015
G. Isotton, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 519–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-519-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-519-2015, 2015
F. Tian, J.-R. Liu, Y. Luo, L. Zhu, Y. Yang, and Y. Zhou
Proc. IAHS, 372, 49–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-49-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-49-2015, 2015
L. Tosi, E. E. Kruse, F. Braga, E. S. Carol, S. C. Carretero, J. L. Pousa, F. Rizzetto, and P. Teatini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 523–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-523-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-523-2013, 2013
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This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574, 2023
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We model hurricane rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement Goals. Our analysis suggests 8–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2–15 % and 1–20 % at 1.5 °C and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
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We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
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Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
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We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1003, 2023
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Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows a precise quantification of flood hazard under different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi basin in February 2023.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Khanh Pham Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-93, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A global flood model built using a new terrain dataset and evaluated in the central highlands of Vietnam.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, 2023
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-9, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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The study presents a new version of a framework which allow to model water balance components at any site for a local scale. In comparison to the first version, the second one incorporates new datasets used to setup and force the model. In particular, we want to highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives the potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers etc.) possibility to forecast e.g. soil moisture drought and thus apply necessary measures.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
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Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
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In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-15, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment) is a new spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties are: the ability to integrate with climatic scenario outputs and the reproduction of geo-hydrological hazards strongly related to rainfalls such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion. CRHyME has been written in PYTHON and works at a high spatial and temporal resolution to simulate geo-hydrological hazards triggered by extreme rainfall events.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
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Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
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On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-243, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The present study focuses on an in depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus river from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate the flood episodes using the outstating floods of February 1979 as benchmark. Obtained results corroborate the model capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in lower Tagus valley.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
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We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
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A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, 2022
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Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
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Short summary
We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and a weighted Bayesian model to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technology. The proposed model can represent the uncertainty and ambiguity in the evaluation process, and results can be compared to traditional qualitative methods.
We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and a weighted Bayesian model to evaluate...
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