Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 08 Jan 2021
| 08 Jan 2021
Modelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climate
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Priscilla A. Mooney
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
William Cabos
Departamento de Fisicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Miguel Ángel Gaertner
Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
Alba de la Vara
Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada a la Ingenierá Industrial, E. T. S. I. Industriales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Juan Jesus González-Alemán
Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Related authors
Shunya Koseki, Lander R. Crespo, Jerry Tjiputra, Filippa Fransner, Noel S. Keenlyside, and David Rivas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how the physical biases of an Earth system model influence the marine biogeochemical processes in the tropical Atlantic. With four different configurations of the model, we have shown that the versions with better SST reproduction tend to represent the primary production and sea-air CO2 flux in terms of climatology, seasonal cycle, and responses to climate variability.
Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a high-resolution regionally-coupled model, we have suggested that Dakar Niño variability will be reinforced under RCP8.5 scenario. This may be induced by the intensified meridional surface wind variability along the west African coast. In addition, the stronger wind variability can be attributed to the amplified surface temperature anomalies between ocean and land.
Shunya Koseki and Priscilla A. Mooney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2795–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study revealed that Lake Malawi plays an important role for local precipitation in terms of spatial distribution and diurnal cycle in boreal summer (November to March). The diurnal cycle is detected by harmonics analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. An idealized simulation of WRF without Lake Malawi clearly showed that Lake Malawi is a source of local precipitation.
Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, and Katerina Goubanova
Ocean Sci., 15, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-83-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-83-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
With an ocean frontogenetic function, the frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) is investigated. On an annual-mean timescale, the meridional confluence of Angola and Benguela currents and tilting effect due to the upwelling are the main sources to generate the ABFZ. The annual cycle of the ABFZ is also mainly driven by these two effects.
Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, David Barriopedro, Rosa Delia García, Silvia Alonso-Pérez, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Ernest Werner, David Suárez, Juan José Bustos, Gerardo García-Castrillo, Omaira García, África Barreto, and Sara Basart
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4083–4104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4083-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During February–March (FM) 2020–2022, unusually intense dust storms from northern Africa hit the western Euro-Mediterranean (WEM). Using dust products from satellites and atmospheric reanalysis for 2003–2022, results show that cut-off lows and European blocking are key drivers of FM dust intrusions over the WEM. A higher frequency of cut-off lows associated with subtropical ridges is observed in the late 2020–2022 period.
Shunya Koseki, Lander R. Crespo, Jerry Tjiputra, Filippa Fransner, Noel S. Keenlyside, and David Rivas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how the physical biases of an Earth system model influence the marine biogeochemical processes in the tropical Atlantic. With four different configurations of the model, we have shown that the versions with better SST reproduction tend to represent the primary production and sea-air CO2 flux in terms of climatology, seasonal cycle, and responses to climate variability.
Xavier Levine, Ryan Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla Mooney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2741, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, there remains differences in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Shunya Koseki, Rúben Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2494, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a high-resolution regionally-coupled model, we have suggested that Dakar Niño variability will be reinforced under RCP8.5 scenario. This may be induced by the intensified meridional surface wind variability along the west African coast. In addition, the stronger wind variability can be attributed to the amplified surface temperature anomalies between ocean and land.
Alok Samantaray, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Carla A. Vivacqua
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-134, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Any interpretation of climate modelled data requires a comprehensive evaluation of the model performance. Numerous error metrics exist for this purpose and each focus on a specific aspect of the relationship between reference and model data. Thus, a comprehensive evaluation demands the use of multiple error metrics. However, this can lead to confusion. We propose a clustering technique to reduce the number of error metrics needed and a composite error metric to simplify the interpretation.
Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci., 19, 941–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming may strongly affect dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean, potentially impacting basin circulation and water properties. We find that at the end of the century dense water formation is reduced by 75 % for the Adriatic, 84 % for the Aegean, and 83 % for the Levantine Sea. This reduction is caused by changes in the temperature and salinity of surface and intermediate waters, which strengthen the vertical stratification, hampering deep convection.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Javier Díaz-Fernández, Yago Martín, Pedro Bolgiani, Mariano Sastre, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Daniel Santos-Muñoz, José Ignacio Farrán, and María Luisa Martín
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Supercells are among the most complex and dangerous severe convective storms due to their associated phenomena (lightning, strong winds, large hail, flash floods, or tornadoes). In this survey we study the supercell synoptic configurations and convective environments in Spain using the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5. Supercells are grouped into hail (greater than 5 cm) and non-hail events in order to compare and analyze the two events. The results reveal statistically significant differences.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use multiple regional climate models to show that afforestation in sub-polar and alpine regions reduces the radiative impact of snow albedo on the atmosphere, reduces snow cover, and delays the start of the snowmelt season. This is important for local communities that are highly reliant on snowpack for water resources and winter tourism. However, models disagree on the amount of change particularly when snow is melting. This shows that more research is needed on snow–vegetation interactions.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Hannah Ming Siu Vickers, Priscilla Mooney, Eirik Malnes, and Hanna Lee
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-57, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events are becoming more frequent as a result of a warming climate, and can have significant impacts on nature and society. Accurate representation of ROS events is need to identify where impacts are greatest both now and in the future. We compare rain-on-snow climatologies from a climate model, ground and satellite radar observations and show how different methods can lead to contrasting conclusions and interpretation of the results should take into account their limitations.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Alba de la Vara, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Alfredo Izquierdo, Dmitry V. Sein, and William Cabos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study with the regionally coupled climate model ROM the impact of climate change on the Tyrrhenian Sea circulation, as well as the possible mechanisms and consequences in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show a shift towards the summer circulation pattern by the end of the century. Also, water flowing via the Corsica Channel is more stratified and smaller in volume. Both factors may contribute to the interruption of deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions in the future.
Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa Jach, Ronny Meier, Priscilla A. Mooney, Pedro M. M. Soares, Susanna Strada, Merja H. Tölle, and Kirsten Warrach Sagi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation is currently promoted as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. In our study, we examine the differences in soil temperature and moisture between grounds covered either by forests or grass. The main conclusion emerged is that forest-covered grounds are cooler but drier than open lands in summer. Therefore, afforestation disrupts the seasonal cycle of soil temperature, which in turn could trigger changes in crucial chemical processes such as soil carbon sequestration.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In September 2018 an intense Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so-called medicane, caused severe damage in Greece. Its development was uncertain, even just a few days in advance. The reason for this was uncertainties in the jet stream over the North Atlantic 3 d prior to cyclogenesis that propagated into the Mediterranean. They led to an uncertain position of the upper-level disturbance and, as a result, of the position and thermal structure of the cyclone.
Ivan M. Parras-Berrocal, Ruben Vazquez, William Cabos, Dmitry Sein, Rafael Mañanes, Juan Perez-Sanz, and Alfredo Izquierdo
Ocean Sci., 16, 743–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-743-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents high-resolution simulations of a coupled regional model in the Mediterranean basin. The approach allows us to assess the role of ocean feedbacks in the downscaled climate. Our results show good skills in simulating present climate; the model's robustness introduces improvements in reproducing physical processes at local scales. Our climate projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean Sea will be warmer and saltier although not in a homogeneous way.
Shunya Koseki and Priscilla A. Mooney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2795–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study revealed that Lake Malawi plays an important role for local precipitation in terms of spatial distribution and diurnal cycle in boreal summer (November to March). The diurnal cycle is detected by harmonics analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. An idealized simulation of WRF without Lake Malawi clearly showed that Lake Malawi is a source of local precipitation.
Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, and Katerina Goubanova
Ocean Sci., 15, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-83-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-83-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
With an ocean frontogenetic function, the frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) is investigated. On an annual-mean timescale, the meridional confluence of Angola and Benguela currents and tilting effect due to the upwelling are the main sources to generate the ABFZ. The annual cycle of the ABFZ is also mainly driven by these two effects.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: The Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Assessment of windstorm-damage relations in the complex terrain of Norway
The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
FOREWARNS: Development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Catchment scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-217, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to demonstrate long-term fluctuations in the number, gender and age of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters and falls on ice or snow in relation to selected meteorological, historical and socioeconomic factors, strongly influencing changes in numbers and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of human lives.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2676, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years, but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-193, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage/no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed by Arctic cyclones to ships has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks and shipping incident reports, to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggests that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships, and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4401872, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 has been truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. Satellite All-Sky Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1948, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data was disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-83, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over Northern England to show that this confidence is justified, and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression is used to determine the drought severity and time zones where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations). Moreover, this study also examined the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Cited articles
Akhtar, N., Brauch, J., Dobler, A., Béranger, K., and Ahrens, B.:
Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2189–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2189-2014, 2014.
Bakkensen, L. A.: Mediterranean Hurricanes and Associated Damages Estimates,
J. Ext. Events, 4, 1750008, https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737617500087, 2017.
Bouin, M.-N. and Lebeaupin Brossier, C.: Surface processes in the 7 November 2014 medicane from air-sea coupled high resolution numerical modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020.
Caniaux, G., Giordani, H., Redelsperger, J.-L., Guichard, F., Key, E., and
Wade, M.: Coupling between the Atlantic cold tongue and the West African monsoon in boreal spring and summer, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C04003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006570, 2011.
Carrió, D. S., Homar, V., Jansa, A., Romero, R., and Picornell, M. A.: Tropicalization process of the 7 November 2014 Mediterranean cyclone: Numerical sensitivity study, Atmos. Res., 197, 300–312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.018, 2017.
Cavicchia, L. and von Storch, H.: The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2273–2290, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1220-0, 2012.
Cavicchia, L., von Storch, H., and Gualdi, S.: A long-term climatology of
medicanes, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1183–1195, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1893-7, 2013.
Cavicchia, L., von Storch, H., and Gualdi, S.: Mediterranean Tropical-Like
Cyclones n Present and Future Climate, J. Climate, 27, 7493–7501,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00339.1, 2014.
Chaboureau, J. P., Pantillon, F., Lambert, D., Richard, E., and Claud, C.:
Tropical transition of a Mediterranean strom by jet corssing, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 596–611, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.960, 2012.
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Pen State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model description and implementation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585, 2001a.
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Pen State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part II: model validation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 587–604, 2001b.
Copernicus Climate Change Service: ERA5: First generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. Copernicus Climate Change Service Data Store (CDS), data of access, available at:
http://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home (last access: 20 October 2018), 2017.
Dafis, S., Rysman, J.-F., Claud, C., and Flaounas, E.: Remote sensing of
deep convection within a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Sci., Lett., 19, e823, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.823, 2018.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andre, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hóml, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kåkkberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
ECMWF: ERA-Interim, available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim, last access: 15 January 2019.
Emanuel, K.: Genesis and maintenance of “Mediterranean hurricanes”, Adv. Geosci., 2, 217–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-217-2005, 2005.
Emanuel, K. A.: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I:
Steady-state maintenance, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585–604, 1986.
Fita, L. and Flaounas, E.: Medicanes as subtropical cyclones: the December 2005 case from the perspective of surface pressure tendency diagnostic and atmospheric water budget, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1028–1044, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3273, 2018.
Fita, L., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Intercomparison of intense cyclogenesis events over the Mediterranean basin based on baroclinic and diabatic influences, Adv. Geosci., 7, 333–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-333-2006, 2006.
Flaounas, E., Raveh-Rubin, S., Wernil, H., Drobinski, P., and Bastin, S.:
The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2411–2427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2, 2015.
Flaounas, E., Fita, L., Lagouvardos, C., and Kotroni, V.: Heavy rainfall in
Mediterranean cyclones, Part II: Water budget, precipitation efficiency and remote water sources, Clim. Dynam., 53, 2539–2555, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04639-x, 2019.
Gaertner, M. Á., González-Alemán, J. J., Romera, R.,
Domínguez, M., Gil, V., Sánchez, E., Gallardo, C., Miglietta, M. M., Walsh, K. J. E., Sein, D. V., Somot, S., Dell'Aquila A., Teichmann, C., Ahrens, B., Buonomo, E., Colette, A., Bastin, S., van Meijgaar, E., and Nikulin, G.: Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling and increased resolution, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3456-1, 2018.
Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Glob. Planet. Change, 63, 90–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008.
González-Alemán, J. J., Pascale, S., Gutierrez-Fernandez, J., Murakami, H., Gaertner, M. A., and Vecchi, G. A.: Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Huriicane Activity With Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1754–1764, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081253, 2019.
Hart, R. E.: A Cyclone Phase Space Derived from Thermal Wind and Thermal
Asymmetry, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 585–616, 2003.
Hong, S.-Y. and Lim, J.–O. J.: The WRF single–moment 6 – class
microphysics scheme (WSM6), J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 42, 129–151, 2006.
Hong, S.-Y., Dudhia, J., and Chen, S.-H.: A revised approach to ice
microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 103–120, 2004.
Janjíc, Z. I.: The Step–Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 927–945, 1994.
Jin, F.-F.: Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, the Pacific Cold Tongue,
and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Science, 274, 76–78, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.274.5284.76, 1996.
Kain, J. S.: The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: An update, J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170–181, 2004.
Mazza, E., Ulbrich, U., and Klein, R.: The Tropical Transition of the
October 1996 Medicane in the Western Mediterranean Sea: A Warm Seclusion Event, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 2575–2595, 2017.
Miglietta, M. M., and Rotunno, R.: Development mechanisms for Mediterranean
tropical-like cyclones (medicanes), Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1444–1460, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3503, 2019.
Miglietta, M. M., Laviola, S., Malvaldi, A., Conte, D., Levizzani, V., and
Price, C.: Analysis of tropical-like cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea through a combined modeling and satellite approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2400–2405, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50432, 2013.
Miglietta, M. M., Mastrangelo, D., and Conte, D.: Influence of physics
parametrization schemes on the simulation of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 153, 360–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.09.008, 2015.
Miglietta, M. M., Cerrai, D., Laviola, S., Cattani, E., and Levizzani, V.:
Potential vorticity patterns in Mediterranean “huricanes”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2537–2545, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072670, 2016.
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated
correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16663–16682, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997.
Mooney, P. A., Gill, D. O., Mulligan, F. J., and Bruyère, C. L.: Hurricane simulation using different representations of atmosphere-ocean interaction: the case of Irene (2011), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17, 415–421, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.673, 2016.
Mooney, P. A., Mulligan, F. J., Bruyère, C. J., Parker, C. L., and Gill,
D. O.: Investigating the performance of coupled WRF-ROMS simulations of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a regional climate modeling framework, Atmos. Res., 215, 57–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.017, 2018.
Mooney, P. M., Sobolowski, S. P., and Lee, H.: Designing and evaluating
regional climate simulations for land use land cover change studies at high latitudes, Tellus A, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1853437, in press, 2020.
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An improved Mellor–Yamada level 3 model: its
numerical stability and application to a regional prediction of advecting fog, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 119, 397–407, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-9030-8, 2006.
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: Development of an improved turbulence closure
model for the atmospheric boundary layer, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 87, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.87.895, 2009.
NOAA: Observed cyclone track data, available at: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/tdata/med/01M.html, last access: 15 October 2019.
Olson, J. B., Kenyon, J. S., Angevine, W. M., Brown, J. M., Pagowski, M.,
and Sušelj, K.: A Description of the MYNN-EDMF Scheme and the Coupling to Other Components in WRF–ARW, NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR GSD, 61, 37 pp., https://doi.org/10.25923/n9wm-be49, 2019.
Parker, C. L., Bruyère, C. L., Mooney, P. A., and Lynch, A. H.: The
response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia, Clim. Dynam., 51, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4091-9, 2018.
Quitián-Hernández, L., González-Alemán, J. J., Santos-Muñoz, D., Fernández-González, S., Valero, F., and Martín, M. L.: Subtropical cyclone formation via warm seclusion development: The importance of surface fluxes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031526, 2020.
Rasmussen, R., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Gochis, D., Yates, D., Chen, F., Tewari,
M., Barlage, M., Dudhia, J., Yu, W., and Miller, K.: High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate, J. Climate, 24, 3015–3048, 2011.
Ricchi, A., Miglietta, M. M., Barbariol, F., Benetazzo, A., Bergamasco, A.,
Bonaldo, D., Cassardo, C., Falcieri, F. M., Modugno, G., Russo, A., Sclavo, M., and Carniel, S.: Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies, Atmosphere, 8, 92, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8050092, 2017.
Ricchi, A., Miglietta, M. M., Bonaldo, D., Cioni, G., Rizza, U., and Carniel, S.: Multi-Physics Ensemble versus Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model Simulations for a Tropical-Like Cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea, 2019, Atmosphere, 10, 202, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10040202, 2019.
Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D., and Davies, H. C.: Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 669–672, 1996.
Shaltout, M. and Omstedt, A.: Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea, Oceanologia, 56, 411–443, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.56-3.411, 2014.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M.,
Duda, M., Huang, X. Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, NCAR technical note, NCAR/TN/u201345?STR, NCAR, 123 pp., 2008.
Somot, S., Sevault, F., and Déqué, M.: Transient climate change
scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the twenty-first century using a high-resolution ocean circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 27, 851–879, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0167-z, 2006.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit
Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008.
Tiedtke, M.: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large–scale models, Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1779–1800, 1989.
Torn, R. D.: Evaluations of Atmosphere and Ocean Initial Condition Uncertainty and Stochastic Exchange Coefficients on Ensemble Tropical Intensity Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3487–3506, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0108.1, 2016.
Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L., and Vidale, P. L.: Projected
changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model, Clim. Dynam., 47, 1913–1924, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2, 2016.
Xu, C.-H. and Xu, Y.: The projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 527–533, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2012.11447042, 2012.
Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Hamilton, K.: Improved representation of boundary
layer clouds over the southeast pacific in ARW–WRF using a modified Tiedtke
cumulus parameterization scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3489–3513, 2011.
Short summary
This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under present and future climate conditions with a regional climate model. A pseudo global warming (PGW) technique is employed to simulate the cyclone under future climate, and our simulation showed that the cyclone is moderately strengthened by warmer climate. Other PGW simulations where only ocean and atmosphere are warmed reveal the interesting results that both have counteracting effects on the cyclone.
This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint