Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate  return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria

Poschlod, Benjamin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 11

Research article

|

25 Nov 2021

Research article |

| 25 Nov 2021

Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria

Benjamin Poschlod

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021-supplement

Data sets

KOSTRA_DWD_2010R DWD - Deutscher Wetterdienst https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/grids_germany/return_periods/precipitation/KOSTRA/KOSTRA_DWD_2010R/asc/

Regionen und Tourismus: eHYD BMLRT - Bundesministerium für Landwirtschaft https://ehyd.gv.at/

Standard period 1966-2015 MeteoSwiss https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/home/climate/swiss-climate-in-detail/extreme-value-analyses/standard-period.html?station=int

High-resolution (5 km) RCM data for Central Europe, 1980-2009 and 2020-2049, WRF 3.6.1 forced by ERA-Interim and MPI-ESM, RCP4.5 M. Warscher https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2533904

BAYWRF E. Collier https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/AQ58B

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Short summary

Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate extreme daily rainfall in Bavaria statistically occurring once every 10 or even 100 years. Results are validated with observations. The RCMs can reproduce spatial patterns and intensities, and setups with higher spatial resolutions show better results. These findings suggest that RCMs are suitable for assessing the probability of the occurrence of such rare rainfall events.