Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Berlin, Germany
Henning W. Rust
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Berlin, Germany
Uwe Ulbrich
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Using Machine Learning in Predicting the Impact of Meteorological Parameters on Traffic Incidents A. Aleksić et al. 10.3390/math11020479
- Development of Modified Temporal Safety Performance Function Considering Various Time Flows Y. Sung et al. 10.1155/2024/7970454
- The Effect of Ramp Proximity, Weather, and Time-of-Day on Freeway Accident Frequency: A Case Study on I-75 and I-24 in Hamilton County, TN E. Laflamme et al. 10.2174/18744478-v16-e2203140
- Road Accident Analysis and Prevention Using Autonomous Vehicles with Application for Montreal M. Singh & A. Awasthi 10.3390/electronics14163329
- Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany N. Becker et al. 10.1186/s12544-022-00539-0
- Investigation of the Effect of Slope and Road Surface Conditions on Traffic Accidents Occurring in Winter Months: Spatial and Machine Learning Approaches E. Kuşkapan et al. 10.3390/app142411629
- Methodology for Optimizing Factors Affecting Road Accidents in Poland P. Gorzelanczyk & H. Tylicki 10.3390/forecast5010018
- Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria W. Ghada et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259086
- The Use of Machine Learning Methods in Road Safety Research in Poland A. Borucka & S. Sobczuk 10.3390/app15020861
- Time-Series Forecasting for Peak Hour Traffic Accidents M. Shikder et al. 10.1109/OJITS.2025.3583686
- Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models N. Becker et al. 10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2
- Application Research of Cross-Attention Mechanism for Traffic Prediction Based on Heterogeneous Data Z. Feng & K. Subramaniya 10.1051/itmconf/20257001004
- Evaluation of factors affecting the number of traffic accidents P. Gorzelanczyk & P. Piątkowski 10.31648/ts.10043
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Using Machine Learning in Predicting the Impact of Meteorological Parameters on Traffic Incidents A. Aleksić et al. 10.3390/math11020479
- Development of Modified Temporal Safety Performance Function Considering Various Time Flows Y. Sung et al. 10.1155/2024/7970454
- The Effect of Ramp Proximity, Weather, and Time-of-Day on Freeway Accident Frequency: A Case Study on I-75 and I-24 in Hamilton County, TN E. Laflamme et al. 10.2174/18744478-v16-e2203140
- Road Accident Analysis and Prevention Using Autonomous Vehicles with Application for Montreal M. Singh & A. Awasthi 10.3390/electronics14163329
- Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany N. Becker et al. 10.1186/s12544-022-00539-0
- Investigation of the Effect of Slope and Road Surface Conditions on Traffic Accidents Occurring in Winter Months: Spatial and Machine Learning Approaches E. Kuşkapan et al. 10.3390/app142411629
- Methodology for Optimizing Factors Affecting Road Accidents in Poland P. Gorzelanczyk & H. Tylicki 10.3390/forecast5010018
- Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria W. Ghada et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259086
- The Use of Machine Learning Methods in Road Safety Research in Poland A. Borucka & S. Sobczuk 10.3390/app15020861
- Time-Series Forecasting for Peak Hour Traffic Accidents M. Shikder et al. 10.1109/OJITS.2025.3583686
- Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models N. Becker et al. 10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2
- Application Research of Cross-Attention Mechanism for Traffic Prediction Based on Heterogeneous Data Z. Feng & K. Subramaniya 10.1051/itmconf/20257001004
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 06 Sep 2025
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents...
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