Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system
Francesca Di Giuseppe
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Claudia Vitolo
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Blazej Krzeminski
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Christopher Barnard
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Pedro Maciel
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Jesús San-Miguel
ICTP, Ispra, Italy
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Cited
52 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe S. Bohlmann & M. Laine
- Advancing fire weather forecasting: deep learning with Kolmogorov–Arnold and Fourier networks across Italy F. Granata & F. Di Nunno
- The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal A. Ramos et al.
- A Global Bottom‐Up Approach to Estimate Fuel Consumed by Fires Using Above Ground Biomass Observations F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A. Gain et al.
- Simulation-based high-resolution fire danger mapping using deep learning F. Allaire et al.
- Utilizing Deep Learning and Spatial Analysis for Accurate Forest Fire Occurrence Forecasting in the Central Region of China Y. Guo et al.
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al.
- Using hydrological modelling to improve the Fire Weather Index system over tropical peatlands of peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo J. Mortelmans et al.
- The “Last-mile Efforts” of Subseasonal Prediction and Services for Climate Resilience and Sustainability: Review and Outlook J. Yang et al.
- Global data-driven prediction of fire activity F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics S. Afolayan et al.
- Impact of meteorological uncertainties on PM2.5 forecast: An ensemble air quality forecast study during 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics W. Wen et al.
- Relevance of earth observations of essential climate variables in wildfire adaptation S. Seitzinger et al.
- Sentinel-1 Response to Canopy Moisture in Mediterranean Forests before and after Fire Events F. Pirotti et al.
- Global seasonal prediction of fire danger F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al.
- On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science H. Shachaf et al.
- Equations to Predict Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Amazon Rainforest Fires S. Gallup et al.
- Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States J. Abatzoglou et al.
- Towards Resilient Critical Infrastructure in the Face of Extreme Wildfire Events: Lessons and Policy Pathways from the US and EU N. Kalapodis et al.
- Has the fire weather index emerged? Insights from global and regional climate models R. Nogherotto et al.
- Developing novel machine-learning-based fire weather indices A. Shmuel & E. Heifetz
- Remote sensing analysis for wildfire monitoring and prediction in oman: insights from MODIS and fire weather index H. Sadeghi et al.
- Probabilistic fire-danger forecasting: A framework for week-two forecasts using statistical post-processing techniques and the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast System (GEFF) R. Worsnop et al.
- Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems V. Resco de Dios et al.
- Some Challenges for Forest Fire Risk Predictions in the 21st Century V. Resco de Dios & R. Nolan
- Forecast Zoning of Forest Fire Occurrence: A Case Study in Southern China X. Jing et al.
- Prediction of Forest Fire Occurrence in Southwestern China X. Jing et al.
- Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes J. Baijnath-Rodino et al.
- How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales? Y. Pan et al.
- Application of the Canadian Fire Weather Index for Forest Fire Danger Assessment in South Korea C. Lim & H. Chae
- A Synthesis of Compound Drought in Africa: Mechanisms, Hotspots, Impacts, and Future Projections O. Adeyeri
- Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal T. Ermitão et al.
- Creating resilient communities with medium-range hazard warning systems B. Fakhruddin et al.
- Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe J. Carnicer et al.
- Contribution to the Study of Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Regions with the Use of Canadian Fire Weather Index Application in Greece N. Ntinopoulos et al.
- Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model A. Rovithakis et al.
- Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe V. Resco de Dios et al.
- Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon K. Fernandes et al.
- Methods and technologies for impact-based early warning of weather and geo-hazards: Overview and perspectives for multi-risk integration A. Zollo et al.
- Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America K. Luo et al.
- Google Earth Engine Framework for Satellite Data-Driven Wildfire Monitoring in Ukraine B. Yailymov et al.
- Hydroclimatic and Land Use Drivers of Wildfire Risk in the Colombian Caribbean Y. Camargo Caicedo et al.
- Accounting for fuel in fire danger forecasts: the fire occurrence probability index (FOPI) F. Di Giuseppe
- Modeling Surface Ozone Concentrations in Iraq Using Principal Component Analysis and Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression Method F. Abed et al.
- Vegetation optical depth as a key predictor for fire risk escalation D. Kankanige et al.
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al.
- The Performance of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for European Extreme Fires: Portugal/Monchique in 2018 R. Durão et al.
- Exploring Forest Fire Dynamics: Fire Danger Mapping in Antalya Region, Türkiye H. Atalay et al.
- Multi-Indices Diagnosis of the Conditions That Led to the Two 2017 Major Wildfires in Portugal C. Andrade & L. Bugalho
- Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data J. Mortelmans et al.
52 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe S. Bohlmann & M. Laine
- Advancing fire weather forecasting: deep learning with Kolmogorov–Arnold and Fourier networks across Italy F. Granata & F. Di Nunno
- The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal A. Ramos et al.
- A Global Bottom‐Up Approach to Estimate Fuel Consumed by Fires Using Above Ground Biomass Observations F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A. Gain et al.
- Simulation-based high-resolution fire danger mapping using deep learning F. Allaire et al.
- Utilizing Deep Learning and Spatial Analysis for Accurate Forest Fire Occurrence Forecasting in the Central Region of China Y. Guo et al.
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al.
- Using hydrological modelling to improve the Fire Weather Index system over tropical peatlands of peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo J. Mortelmans et al.
- The “Last-mile Efforts” of Subseasonal Prediction and Services for Climate Resilience and Sustainability: Review and Outlook J. Yang et al.
- Global data-driven prediction of fire activity F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics S. Afolayan et al.
- Impact of meteorological uncertainties on PM2.5 forecast: An ensemble air quality forecast study during 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics W. Wen et al.
- Relevance of earth observations of essential climate variables in wildfire adaptation S. Seitzinger et al.
- Sentinel-1 Response to Canopy Moisture in Mediterranean Forests before and after Fire Events F. Pirotti et al.
- Global seasonal prediction of fire danger F. Di Giuseppe et al.
- State of Wildfires 2023–2024 M. Jones et al.
- On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science H. Shachaf et al.
- Equations to Predict Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Amazon Rainforest Fires S. Gallup et al.
- Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States J. Abatzoglou et al.
- Towards Resilient Critical Infrastructure in the Face of Extreme Wildfire Events: Lessons and Policy Pathways from the US and EU N. Kalapodis et al.
- Has the fire weather index emerged? Insights from global and regional climate models R. Nogherotto et al.
- Developing novel machine-learning-based fire weather indices A. Shmuel & E. Heifetz
- Remote sensing analysis for wildfire monitoring and prediction in oman: insights from MODIS and fire weather index H. Sadeghi et al.
- Probabilistic fire-danger forecasting: A framework for week-two forecasts using statistical post-processing techniques and the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast System (GEFF) R. Worsnop et al.
- Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems V. Resco de Dios et al.
- Some Challenges for Forest Fire Risk Predictions in the 21st Century V. Resco de Dios & R. Nolan
- Forecast Zoning of Forest Fire Occurrence: A Case Study in Southern China X. Jing et al.
- Prediction of Forest Fire Occurrence in Southwestern China X. Jing et al.
- Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes J. Baijnath-Rodino et al.
- How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales? Y. Pan et al.
- Application of the Canadian Fire Weather Index for Forest Fire Danger Assessment in South Korea C. Lim & H. Chae
- A Synthesis of Compound Drought in Africa: Mechanisms, Hotspots, Impacts, and Future Projections O. Adeyeri
- Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal T. Ermitão et al.
- Creating resilient communities with medium-range hazard warning systems B. Fakhruddin et al.
- Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe J. Carnicer et al.
- Contribution to the Study of Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Regions with the Use of Canadian Fire Weather Index Application in Greece N. Ntinopoulos et al.
- Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model A. Rovithakis et al.
- Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe V. Resco de Dios et al.
- Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon K. Fernandes et al.
- Methods and technologies for impact-based early warning of weather and geo-hazards: Overview and perspectives for multi-risk integration A. Zollo et al.
- Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America K. Luo et al.
- Google Earth Engine Framework for Satellite Data-Driven Wildfire Monitoring in Ukraine B. Yailymov et al.
- Hydroclimatic and Land Use Drivers of Wildfire Risk in the Colombian Caribbean Y. Camargo Caicedo et al.
- Accounting for fuel in fire danger forecasts: the fire occurrence probability index (FOPI) F. Di Giuseppe
- Modeling Surface Ozone Concentrations in Iraq Using Principal Component Analysis and Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression Method F. Abed et al.
- Vegetation optical depth as a key predictor for fire risk escalation D. Kankanige et al.
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al.
- The Performance of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for European Extreme Fires: Portugal/Monchique in 2018 R. Durão et al.
- Exploring Forest Fire Dynamics: Fire Danger Mapping in Antalya Region, Türkiye H. Atalay et al.
- Multi-Indices Diagnosis of the Conditions That Led to the Two 2017 Major Wildfires in Portugal C. Andrade & L. Bugalho
- Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data J. Mortelmans et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 May 2026
Short summary
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is...
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