Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
28 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 28 Aug 2020
| 28 Aug 2020
Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system
Francesca Di Giuseppe
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Claudia Vitolo
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Blazej Krzeminski
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Christopher Barnard
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Pedro Maciel
ECMWF, Reading, UK
Jesús San-Miguel
ICTP, Ispra, Italy
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Cited
33 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems V. Resco de Dios et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
- Some Challenges for Forest Fire Risk Predictions in the 21st Century V. Resco de Dios & R. Nolan 10.3390/f12040469
- The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal A. Ramos et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141
- A Global Bottom‐Up Approach to Estimate Fuel Consumed by Fires Using Above Ground Biomass Observations F. Di Giuseppe et al. 10.1029/2021GL095452
- Forecast Zoning of Forest Fire Occurrence: A Case Study in Southern China X. Jing et al. 10.3390/f15020265
- Prediction of Forest Fire Occurrence in Southwestern China X. Jing et al. 10.3390/f14091797
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in <i>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</i> A. Gain et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022
- Simulation-based high-resolution fire danger mapping using deep learning F. Allaire et al. 10.1071/WF21143
- Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes J. Baijnath-Rodino et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030
- How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales? Y. Pan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d3d
- Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal T. Ermitão et al. 10.3390/fire6070254
- Creating resilient communities with medium-range hazard warning systems B. Fakhruddin et al. 10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100203
- Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe J. Carnicer et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-14480-8
- Contribution to the Study of Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Regions with the Use of Canadian Fire Weather Index Application in Greece N. Ntinopoulos et al. 10.3390/cli10100143
- Sentinel-1 Response to Canopy Moisture in Mediterranean Forests before and after Fire Events F. Pirotti et al. 10.3390/rs15030823
- Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe V. Resco de Dios et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151462
- Global seasonal prediction of fire danger F. Di Giuseppe et al. 10.1038/s41597-024-02948-3
- Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon K. Fernandes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac76d8
- Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America K. Luo et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-07028-5
- Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States J. Abatzoglou et al. 10.1002/asl.1165
- Google Earth Engine Framework for Satellite Data-Driven Wildfire Monitoring in Ukraine B. Yailymov et al. 10.3390/fire6110411
- Accounting for fuel in fire danger forecasts: the fire occurrence probability index (FOPI) F. Di Giuseppe 10.1088/1748-9326/acd2ee
- Developing novel machine-learning-based fire weather indices A. Shmuel & E. Heifetz 10.1088/2632-2153/acc008
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
- The Performance of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for European Extreme Fires: Portugal/Monchique in 2018 R. Durão et al. 10.3390/atmos13081239
- Probabilistic fire-danger forecasting: A framework for week-two forecasts using statistical post-processing techniques and the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast System (GEFF) R. Worsnop et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0075.1
- Exploring Forest Fire Dynamics: Fire Danger Mapping in Antalya Region, Türkiye H. Atalay et al. 10.3390/ijgi13030074
- Multi-Indices Diagnosis of the Conditions That Led to the Two 2017 Major Wildfires in Portugal C. Andrade & L. Bugalho 10.3390/fire6020056
- Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data J. Mortelmans et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024
- Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk P. Bett et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab8b29
- High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model A. Mandal et al. 10.1071/WF21106
- Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020 Y. Hiraga & M. Kavvas 10.3390/fire4040090
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems V. Resco de Dios et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104
- Some Challenges for Forest Fire Risk Predictions in the 21st Century V. Resco de Dios & R. Nolan 10.3390/f12040469
- The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal A. Ramos et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141
- A Global Bottom‐Up Approach to Estimate Fuel Consumed by Fires Using Above Ground Biomass Observations F. Di Giuseppe et al. 10.1029/2021GL095452
- Forecast Zoning of Forest Fire Occurrence: A Case Study in Southern China X. Jing et al. 10.3390/f15020265
- Prediction of Forest Fire Occurrence in Southwestern China X. Jing et al. 10.3390/f14091797
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in <i>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</i> A. Gain et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022
- Simulation-based high-resolution fire danger mapping using deep learning F. Allaire et al. 10.1071/WF21143
- Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes J. Baijnath-Rodino et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030
- How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales? Y. Pan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d3d
- Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal T. Ermitão et al. 10.3390/fire6070254
- Creating resilient communities with medium-range hazard warning systems B. Fakhruddin et al. 10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100203
- Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe J. Carnicer et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-14480-8
- Contribution to the Study of Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Regions with the Use of Canadian Fire Weather Index Application in Greece N. Ntinopoulos et al. 10.3390/cli10100143
- Sentinel-1 Response to Canopy Moisture in Mediterranean Forests before and after Fire Events F. Pirotti et al. 10.3390/rs15030823
- Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe V. Resco de Dios et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151462
- Global seasonal prediction of fire danger F. Di Giuseppe et al. 10.1038/s41597-024-02948-3
- Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon K. Fernandes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac76d8
- Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America K. Luo et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-07028-5
- Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States J. Abatzoglou et al. 10.1002/asl.1165
- Google Earth Engine Framework for Satellite Data-Driven Wildfire Monitoring in Ukraine B. Yailymov et al. 10.3390/fire6110411
- Accounting for fuel in fire danger forecasts: the fire occurrence probability index (FOPI) F. Di Giuseppe 10.1088/1748-9326/acd2ee
- Developing novel machine-learning-based fire weather indices A. Shmuel & E. Heifetz 10.1088/2632-2153/acc008
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
- The Performance of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for European Extreme Fires: Portugal/Monchique in 2018 R. Durão et al. 10.3390/atmos13081239
- Probabilistic fire-danger forecasting: A framework for week-two forecasts using statistical post-processing techniques and the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast System (GEFF) R. Worsnop et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0075.1
- Exploring Forest Fire Dynamics: Fire Danger Mapping in Antalya Region, Türkiye H. Atalay et al. 10.3390/ijgi13030074
- Multi-Indices Diagnosis of the Conditions That Led to the Two 2017 Major Wildfires in Portugal C. Andrade & L. Bugalho 10.3390/fire6020056
- Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data J. Mortelmans et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk P. Bett et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab8b29
- High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model A. Mandal et al. 10.1071/WF21106
- Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020 Y. Hiraga & M. Kavvas 10.3390/fire4040090
Latest update: 17 Jul 2024
Short summary
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is...
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