Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
17 Jun 2020
Brief communication |
| 17 Jun 2020
| 17 Jun 2020
Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding
Emanuele Bevacqua
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Invited contribution by Emanuele Bevacqua, recipient of the Outstanding Student Poster and PICO (OSPP) Award 2018.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Theodore G. Shepherd
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Mathieu Vrac
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CNRS/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
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Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
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Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
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Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
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Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
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Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 645–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-645-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the mid-latitude jet stream will respond to a changing climate is highly important. Unfortunately, climate models predict a wide variety of possible responses. Theoretical frameworks can link an internal jet variability timescale to its response. However, we show that stratospheric influence approximately doubles the internal timescale, inflating predicted responses. We demonstrate an approach to account for the stratospheric influence and recover correct response predictions.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1755–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, 2022
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We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, 2021
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We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
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This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Ocean Sci., 17, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, 2021
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In this work we explored design options for a future Atlantic-scale observational network enabling the release of carbon system estimates by combining data streams from various platforms. We used outputs of a physical–biogeochemical global ocean model at sites of real-world observations to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 by applying a non-linear feed-forward neural network. The results provide important information for future BGC-Argo deployment, i.e. important regions and the number of floats.
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, 2021
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Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to break down climate model biases in hazard indicators down to the bias caused by each driving variable. Using simplified fire and heat stress indicators driven by temperature and relative humidity as examples, we show how multivariate indicators may have complex biases and that the relationship between driving variables is a source of bias that must be considered in climate model bias corrections.
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021
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The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
Marlene Kretschmer, Giuseppe Zappa, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 715–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020, 2020
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The winds in the polar stratosphere affect the weather in the mid-latitudes, making it important to understand potential changes in response to global warming. However, climate model projections disagree on how this so-called polar vortex will change in the future. Here we show that sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara (BK) seas plays a central role in this. The time when the BK seas become ice-free differs between models, which explains some of the disagreement regarding vortex projections.
Mathieu Vrac and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5367–5387, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, 2020
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We propose a multivariate bias correction (MBC) method to adjust the spatial and/or inter-variable properties of climate simulations, while also accounting for their temporal dependences (e.g., autocorrelations).
It consists on a method reordering the ranks of the time series according to their multivariate distance to a reference time series.
Results show that temporal correlations are improved while spatial and inter-variable correlations are still satisfactorily corrected.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020
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Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, 2020
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Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, 2020
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At subdaily resolution, rain intensity exhibits a strong variability in space and time due to the diversity of processes that produce rain (e.g., frontal storms, mesoscale convective systems and local convection). In this paper we explore a new method to simulate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates. Afterwards, we apply stochastic rain type simulation to the downscaling of precipitation of a regional climate model.
Florentin Breton, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Aglaé Jézéquel
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We investigate North Atlantic weather seasonality over 1979–2100 by classifying year-round fields of 500 hPa geopotential height from one reanalysis dataset and 12 climate models. Generally, models have seasonal structures similar to the reanalyses. Historical winter (summer) conditions decrease (increase), due to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming). However, relative to the increasing Z500 seasonal cycle, future seasonality (spatial patterns, seasonal cycle) appears almost stationary.
Giulia Carella, Mathieu Vrac, Hélène Brogniez, Pascal Yiou, and Hélène Chepfer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, 2020
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Observations of relative humidity for ice clouds over the tropical oceans from a passive microwave sounder are downscaled by incorporating the high-resolution variability derived from simultaneous co-located cloud profiles from a lidar. By providing a method to generate pseudo-observations of relative humidity at high spatial resolution, this work will help revisit some of the current key barriers in atmospheric science.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
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This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, and Carlos Mejia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019
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This work is dedicated to a new model that reconstructs the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) over the global ocean on a monthly 1°×1° grid. The model is based on a feed-forward neural network and represents the nonlinear relationships between pCO2 and the ocean drivers. Reconstructed pCO2 has a satisfying accuracy compared to independent observational data and shows a good agreement in seasonal and interannual variability with three existing mapping methods.
Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Naveau, and Pascal Yiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, 2019
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Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect to observations. In this article, a non-stationary, multivariate and stochastic bias correction method is developed based on optimal transport, accounting for inter-site and inter-variable correlations. Optimal transport allows us to construct a joint distribution that minimizes energy spent in bias correction. Our methodology is tested on precipitation and temperatures over 12 locations in southern France.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, 2018
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We propose a method for unsupervised classification of the space–time–intensity structure of weather radar images. The resulting classes are interpreted as rain types, i.e. pools of rain fields with homogeneous statistical properties. Rain types can in turn be used to define stationary periods for further stochastic rainfall modelling. The application of rain typing to real data indicates that non-stationarity can be significant within meteorological seasons, and even within a single storm.
Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, Evelyn Böhm, Bryan C. Lougheed, Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Lise Missiaen, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, Pierre Burckel, Jörg Lippold, Helge W. Arz, Trond Dokken, François Thil, and Arnaud Dapoigny
Clim. Past, 14, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, 2018
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Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
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We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
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It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, 2018
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This study presents a multivariate bias correction method named R2D2 to adjust both the 1d-distributions and inter-variable/site dependence structures of climate simulations in a high-dimensional context, while providing some stochasticity. R2D2 is tested on temperature and precipitation reanalyses and illustrated on future simulations. In both cases, R2D2 is able to correct the spatial and physical dependence, opening proper use of climate simulations for impact (e.g. hydrological) models.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018
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This study uses the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method to provide bias-corrected data over Africa using WFDEI as a reference dataset. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective in removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets, particularly for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
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We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Claudia Volosciuk, Douglas Maraun, Mathieu Vrac, and Martin Widmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, 2017
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For impact modeling, infrastructure design, or adaptation strategy planning, high-quality climate data on the point scale are often demanded. Due to the scale gap between gridbox and point scale and biases in climate models, we combine a statistical bias correction and a stochastic downscaling model and apply it to climate model-simulated precipitation. The method performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best for mild winter climate (Mediterranean) and worst for continental winter.
Isavela N. Monioudi, Adonis F. Velegrakis, Antonis E. Chatzipavlis, Anastasios Rigos, Theophanis Karambas, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Thomas Hasiotis, Nikoletta Koukourouvli, Pascal Peduzzi, Eva Manoutsoglou, Serafim E. Poulos, and Michael B. Collins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 449–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017, 2017
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This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (Greece) and assess the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) impacts under different scenarios. Results suggest that Aegean beaches may be particularly vulnerable to SLRs, where severe impacts which could be devastating are projected by 2100. Appropriate coastal "setback zone" policies should be adopted, as they form a significant environmental and economic resource.
Jérôme Pernin, Mathieu Vrac, Cyril Crevoisier, and Alain Chédin
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, 2016
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Here, we propose a classification methodology of various space-time atmospheric datasets into discrete air mass groups homogeneous in temperature and humidity through a probabilistic point of view: both the classification process and the data are probabilistic. Unlike conventional classification algorithms, this methodology provides the probability of belonging to each class as well as the corresponding uncertainty, which can be used in various applications.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
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The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Francesco Dottori, Alessio Giardino, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessandra Bianchi, Peter Salamon, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016
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Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
Benjamin Grouillet, Denis Ruelland, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1031–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, 2016
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This original paper provides a guideline to select statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) in climate change impact studies (CCIS) to minimize uncertainty from downscaling. Three SDMs were applied to NCEP reanalysis and 2 GCM data values. We then analyzed the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the various downscaled data via 5 hydrological indicators representing the main features of the hydrograph. Our results enable selection of the appropriate SDMs to be used to build climate scenarios.
C. McLandress, T. G. Shepherd, A. I. Jonsson, T. von Clarmann, and B. Funke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9271–9284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, 2015
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This is the first paper of its kind describing a method for merging the long-term satellite records of global stratospheric temperature from SSU and AMSU to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present (and beyond). Since global-mean stratospheric temperature is close to radiative equilibrium, our "extended" SSU data set is an important climate record for the detection and attribution of anthropogenic influence.
V. Matthias, T. G. Shepherd, P. Hoffmann, and M. Rapp
Ann. Geophys., 33, 199–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-199-2015, 2015
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A vertical coupling process in the northern high-latitude middle atmosphere has been identified during the equinox transitions, which we call the “hiccup” and which acts like a “mini sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)”. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a composite analysis using a nudged model. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.
T. Alberti, F. Lepreti, A. Vecchio, E. Bevacqua, V. Capparelli, and V. Carbone
Clim. Past, 10, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1751-2014, 2014
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
C. McLandress, D. A. Plummer, and T. G. Shepherd
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1547–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1547-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm intensification from mountains to plains
Is considering (in)consistency between runs so useless for weather forecasting?
Review article: The growth in compound weather and climate event research in the decade since SREX
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil–atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer rainfall extremes over Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, Pacific sea surface temperature, and monsoon activity
Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations
Extreme heat and mortality in the State of Rio de Janeiro in the 2023/24 season: attribution to climate change and ENSO
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity data with an adaptive hydrometer retrieval scheme for the short-term severe weather forecasts
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Brief Communication: Investigating trends in European hailstorm damage using CMIP6-DAMIP climate models
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
High-Resolution Data Assimilation for Two Maritime Extreme Weather Events: A comparison between 3DVar and EnKF
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
Historical changes in drought characteristics and its impact on vegetation cover over Madagascar
Multi-hazards in Scandinavia: Impacts and risks from compound heatwaves, droughts and wildfires
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Review article: Towards multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators – a review and recommendations for development and implementation
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Bogdan Antonescu, Christoph Gatzen, and TIM Partners
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2629–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025, 2025
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Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near European mountain ranges, so observations of such storms are needed. This article gives an overview of our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill the knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2613–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025, 2025
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This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By studying how weather scenarios persist over successive forecasts, it appears that conclusions can be drawn about forecasts' reliability.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2503–2518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2503-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2503-2025, 2025
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This study investigates the intense heatwaves of 2022 in the Pyrenees. The interplay of the synoptic circulation with the complex topography and the pre-existing soil moisture deficits played an important role in driving the spatial variability of their temperature anomalies. Moreover, human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Andreas Trojand, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2331–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, 2025
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The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporally dynamic.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2225–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, 2025
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The authors performed verification on the relationships between extreme monsoon rainfall over Japan and Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the “database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate changes” (d4PDF). Observations showed widespread weak relationships between hourly extremes and the warming mode but reversed relationships between daily extremes and the decadal variability mode. Biases in d4PDF could be explained by the monsoon's slower movement over Japan in the model.
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
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Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and other weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and ERA5 and radar meteorological data to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions, and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate, which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
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The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
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Estimates of the risk posed by rare and catastrophic weather events are often derived from relatively short measurement records, which renders them highly uncertain. We investigate if (and by how much) this uncertainty can be reduced by making use of large datasets of simulated weather. More specifically, we focus on coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands and on the challenge of estimating the once in 10 million years coastal water level and wind stress as accurately as possible.
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
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This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jumps (LJs) and lightning dives (LDs) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature characteristics similar to severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail, or tornadoes.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
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A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
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We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
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In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
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During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
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This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
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We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, 2025
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, 2025
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In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
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Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
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We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
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We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
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Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
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We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
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Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Lixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
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The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
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The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
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The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
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Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
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Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
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Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
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A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Warming seas have been driving greater hailstorm risk in Europe over the past few decades. Modern climate models indicate anthropogenic aerosols caused the observed cooling of seas from about 1900 to the 1970s, while the recent rapid warming is mostly explained by rising greenhouse gases. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are likely to persist, suggesting seas will continue warming, and hailstorm risk over Europe will continue rising over the next couple of decades, at least.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
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Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, 2024
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Our study finds that heatwave, drought and wildfire events occurring simultaneously in Scandinavia are pronounced in the summer months; and the heat-drought 2018 event led to a drop in gross domestic product, affecting agriculture and forestry imports, further impacting Europe’s trade balance. This research shows the importance of ripple effects of multi-hazard, and that forest management and adaptation measures are vital to reducing the risks of heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable areas.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
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Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
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Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is...
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