Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
Research article
 | 
14 Jan 2020
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2020

Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach

Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers

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Cited articles

Ahrens, B. and Walser, A.: Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 352–363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr1931.1, 2008. 
Alexander, L. V. and Jones, P. D.: Updated Precipitation Series for the U.K. and Discussion of Recent Extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 1, 142–150, 2000. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., and Scaife, A. A.: Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 437–453, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382, 2018. 
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Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
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