Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
Research article
 | 
14 Jan 2020
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2020

Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach

Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers

Related authors

Characteristics of gauged abrupt wave fronts (walls of water) in flash floods in Scotland
David Ronald Archer, Felipe de Mendonca Fileni, Samuel Archer Watkiss, and Hayley Jane Fowler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-456,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-456, 2025
Short summary
Non-asymptotic distributions of water extremes: much ado about what?
Francesco Serinaldi, Federico Lombardo, and Chris G. Kilsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1159–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1159-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1159-2025, 2025
Short summary
Future intensification of compound and cascading drought and heatwave risks in Europe
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, 2025
Short summary
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Andreas Trojand, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2331–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer rainfall extremes over Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, Pacific sea surface temperature, and monsoon activity
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2225–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, 2025
Short summary
Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
Short summary
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
Short summary
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Ahrens, B. and Walser, A.: Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 352–363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr1931.1, 2008. 
Alexander, L. V. and Jones, P. D.: Updated Precipitation Series for the U.K. and Discussion of Recent Extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 1, 142–150, 2000. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., and Scaife, A. A.: Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 437–453, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382, 2018. 
Download
Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint