Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
Research article
 | 
14 Jan 2020
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2020

Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach

Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers

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Latest update: 29 Feb 2024
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Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
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