Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
Research article
14 Jan 2020
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2020

Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach

Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (02 Nov 2019) by Brunella Bonaccorso
AR by Doug Richardson on behalf of the Authors (10 Nov 2019)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Nov 2019) by Brunella Bonaccorso
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (02 Dec 2019)
RR by Massimiliano Zappa (04 Dec 2019)
ED: Publish as is (05 Dec 2019) by Brunella Bonaccorso
AR by Doug Richardson on behalf of the Authors (06 Dec 2019)
Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Final-revised paper