Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 29 Mar 2019
| 29 Mar 2019
Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Anna Rita Scorzini
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Francesca Carisi
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Arthur H. Essenfelder
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Alessio Domeneghetti
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Jaroslav Mysiak
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
Attilio Castellarin
DICAM, Water Resources, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Related authors
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari, Mattia Amadio, Tuan Ngo, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1047–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant adverse consequences on the economy every year. Their impact is expected to worsen in the near future due to socio-economic development and climate variability. To be able to reduce the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses, flood risk managers need to be correctly informed about the potential damage from flood hazards. In this study, we have developed a new and accurate model for Italian residential buildings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sara Rrokaj, Chiara Arrighi, Marta Ballocci, Gabriele Bertoli, Francesca da Porto, Claudia De Lucia, Mario Di Bacco, Paola Di Fluri, Alessio Domeneghetti, Marco Donà, Alice Gallazzi, Andrea Gennaro, Gianluca Lelli, Sara Mozzon, Natasha Petruccelli, Elisa Saler, Anna Rita Scorzini, Simone Sterlacchini, Gaia Treglia, Debora Voltolina, Marco Zazzeri, and Daniela Molinari
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-358, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-358, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Flood damage data are key to understanding territorial risks and supporting the design of mitigation measures. However, such data are scarce, and the available ones often lack a high level of detail. We conducted a field survey of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings affected by the record-breaking flood event that hit Italy’s Marche region in 2022. The resulting datasets cover 256 assets and include detailed information on damage, building features, and mitigation measures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pradeep Acharya, Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1413, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE-content is a novel probabilistic model designed to estimate flood damage to household items with a component-based approach. By incorporating multiple variables and addressing uncertainties, the model enables more comprehensive and insightful damage assessments by accounting for an often-overlooked asset
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates flood direct damage to businesses in Italy using 812 damage records from five riverine flood case studies. A multiple regression model predicts economic damage based on business size, water depth, and economic sectors. The results show that damage increases non-proportionally with firm size, while water depth mainly affects stock damage. Healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing sectors are most vulnerable to building, stock, and equipment damage, respectively.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a new methodology to identify regional structures in the dependence of extreme rainfall on global climate indexes. The study area is north-central Italy, but the methods are highly adaptable to other regions. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index has a strong influence, whose geographical pattern is in line with other studies. We show also that the use of the Index may improve the estimation of the extreme rainfall depth with a given probability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natasha Petruccelli, Luca Mantecchini, Alice Gallazzi, Daniela Molinari, Mohammed Hammouti, Marco Zazzeri, Simone Sterlacchini, Francesco Ballio, Armando Brath, and Alessio Domeneghetti
Proc. IAHS, 385, 407–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-407-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-407-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study illustrates the methodology developed for flood risk assessment for road and railway infrastructures. Through the creation of a detailed database, using different data sources, and the definition of a risk matrix, a risk level (High, Medium, Low and Null) is assigned to each section, considering the physical and functional characteristics of the infrastructure, as well as its relevance and the magnitude of the expected event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Persiano, Alessio Pugliese, Alberto Aloe, Jon Olav Skøien, Attilio Castellarin, and Alberto Pistocchi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4435–4443, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For about 24000 river basins across Europe, this study provides a continuous representation of the streamflow regime in terms of empirical flow–duration curves (FDCs), which are key signatures of the hydrological behaviour of a catchment and are widely used for supporting decisions on water resource management as well as for assessing hydrologic change. FDCs at ungauged sites are estimated by means of a geostatistical procedure starting from data observed at about 3000 sites across Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stephen Jewson, Giuliana Barbato, Paola Mercogliano, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Maximiliano Sassi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 329–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-329-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2565-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Jaroslav Mysiak, Sergio Castellari, Blaz Kurnik, Rob Swart, Patrick Pringle, Reimund Schwarze, Henk Wolters, Ad Jeuken, and Paul van der Linden
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3137–3143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3137-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3137-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals. However, policies, methods, and practices across both policy areas often lack coherence, and opportunities are not fully exploited to build up resilience. The report "Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe" of the European Environment Agency identified several ways for how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration, and investments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari, Mattia Amadio, Tuan Ngo, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1047–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are frequent natural hazards in Italy, triggering significant adverse consequences on the economy every year. Their impact is expected to worsen in the near future due to socio-economic development and climate variability. To be able to reduce the probability and magnitude of expected economic losses, flood risk managers need to be correctly informed about the potential damage from flood hazards. In this study, we have developed a new and accurate model for Italian residential buildings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesco Dottori, Rui Figueiredo, Mario L. V. Martina, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE is a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaroslav Mysiak and C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2403-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2403-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Public–private partnerships (PPPs) have gained importance as a means of providing sustainable, equitable and affordable catastrophic natural hazard insurance. This paper reviews and summarizes the manifold legal background that influences the provision of insurance against natural catastrophes and examines how PPPs designed for sharing and transferring risk operate within the European regulatory constraints, illustrated on the example of the UK Flood Reinsurance Scheme.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elco E. Koks, Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyze the economic consequences for two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally CGE model. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact is negative in all models though.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francesca Carisi, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Attilio Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 373, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-161-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Can differential land-subsidence significantly alter river flooding dynamics, and thus flood risk in flood prone areas? In the area around Ravenna, in Italy, that experimented a cumulative drop of more than 1.5 m after World War II due to groundwater pumping and gas production platforms, we compared the actual effects on flood-hazard dynamics of differential land-subsidence relative to those associated with other man-made topographic alterations, which proved to be much more significant.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simone Persiano, Attilio Castellarin, Jose Luis Salinas, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Armando Brath
Proc. IAHS, 373, 95–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-95-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review reference procedures for design flood estimation. Our study focuses on Triveneto (Italy) and proposes an update of the existing reference procedure by properly considering climate and scale controls on flood frequency. Moreover, the study highlights the remarkable influence of a single extreme-floods year on analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
F. Carisi, A. Domeneghetti, and A. Castellarin
Proc. IAHS, 370, 209–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-209-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our study proposes simplified graphical tools (Hypsometric Vulnerability Curves) for assessing the recent dynamics of the flood vulnerability and risk over a large floodable area along the River Po, Northern Italy, and for defining sustainable flood-risk mitigation strategies. We assess the accuracy of the proposed methodology, based on inundation scenarios simulated with a quasi-2D model, by means of a comparison with a traditional approach relying on the simulations of a to a fully-2D model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. L. Salinas, A. Castellarin, A. Viglione, S. Kohnová, and T. R. Kjeldsen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4381–4389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4381-2014, 2014
A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3801–3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3801-2014, 2014
M. P. Hare, C. van Bers, P. van der Keur, H. J. Henriksen, J. Luther, C. Kuhlicke, F. Jaspers, C. Terwisscha van Scheltinga, J. Mysiak, E. Calliari, K. Warner, H. Daniel, J. Coppola, and P. F. McGrath
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2157–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2157-2014, 2014
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
S. A. Archfield, A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, J. O. Skøien, and J. E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1575–1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Review article: Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: A watershed level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Review article: Co-creating knowledge for drought impact assessment in socio-hydrology
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? – case study Berlin
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates 12 sets of drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and provides useful insights to develop the next generation of drought guidelines that are better aligned with contemporary science–policy–practice agendas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany, as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on; therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk that sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g., to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at the district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct damage of extremes on crop yields and farm revenue. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of EUR 781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights herein can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50 000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock, and farm profits rather than traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare and respond to financial and social challenges during droughts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite droughts are deeply intertwined within sociohydrological systems, traditional top-down approaches often ignore those directly affected. By integrating insights from five research fields, we present a framework to guide the co-creation of knowledge for drought impact assessment. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, the framework guides a more inclusive approach to drought assessment and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
AdBPo: Caratteristiche del bacino del fiume Po e primo esame dell'impatto
ambientale delle attività umane sulle risorse idriche, Autorità di
Bacino del Fiume Po, Po River Basin Authority, available at: ahttp://adbpo.gov.it/
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2006.
Agenzia delle Entrate: Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare – Quotazioni zone
OMI, available at: http://www.agenziaentrate.gov.it/wps/content/Nsilib/Nsi/Documentazione/omi/Banche+dati/Quotazioni+immobiliari/
(last access: 1 July 2015), 2018.
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., and
Burek, P.: Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016.
Amadio, M., Mysiak, J., Carrera, L., and Koks, E.: Improving flood damage
assessment models in Italy, Nat. Hazards, 82, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2286-0, 2016.
ANIA – Associazione Nazionale fra le Imprese Assicuratrici: Le alluvioni e la
protezione delle abitazioni, available at: http://www.ania.it/it/index.html
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2015.
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment
and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004.
Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk analyses – how
detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8, 2009.
ARPAV: Scheda Evento “Idro” 31 Ottobre–5 Novembre 2010, available at: w
http://www.regione.veneto.it/web/guest;jsessionid=A6A80F62BAA03DE9D8F9AB8D629441FA.liferay01
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2010.
Barton, C., Viney, E., Heinrich, L., and Turnley, M.: The Reality of Determining
Urban Flood Damages, in: NSW Floodplain Management Authorities Annual Conference,
Sydney, 2003.
Belcaro, P., Gasparini, D., and Baldessari, M.: 31 ottobre–2 novembre 2010:
l'alluvione dei Santi, Regione Veneto, available at: http://statistica.regione.veneto.it/
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2011.
Beta Studio: Interventi per la sicurezza idraulica dell'area metropolitana di
Vicenza: bacino di laminazione lungo il Torrente Timonchio in comune di Caldogno – Progetto
definitivo, Relazione idrologica e idraulica, Regione Veneto, available at:
http://statistica.regione.veneto.it/ (last access: 21 March 2019), 2012.
Breiman, L.: Classification and regression trees, Chapman & Hall, available at:
https://books.google.it/books/about/Classification_and_Regression_Trees.html?id=JwQx-WOmSyQC&redir_esc=y
(last access: 30 July 2018), 1984.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Buck, W. and Merkel, U.: Auswertung der HOWASSchadendatenbank, Institut für
Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik der Universität Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, 1999.
Cammerer, H., Thieken, A. H., and Lammel, J.: Adaptability and transferability
of flood loss functions in residential areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013.
Campolo, M., Soldati, A., and Andreussi, P.: Artificial neural network approach
to flood forecasting in the River Arno, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 381–398,
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.381.45286, 2003.
Carisi, F., Schröter, K., Domeneghetti, A., Kreibich, H., and Castellarin,
A.: Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for
Emilia-Romagna (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018.
Carrera, L., Standardi, G., Bosello, F., and Mysiak, J.: Assessing direct and
indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial
and computable general equilibrium modelling, Environ. Model. Softw., 63,
109–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.016, 2015.
Chinh, D., Gain, A., Dung, N., Haase, D., and Kreibich, H.: Multi-Variate
Analyses of Flood Loss in Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Water, 8, 6, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8010006, 2015.
Cipolla, F., Guzzetti, F., Lolli, O., Pagliacci, S., Sebastiani, C., and
Siccardi, F.: Catalogo delle località colpite da frane e da inondazioni:
verso un utilizzo più maturo dell'informazione, in: Il rischio idrogeologico
e la difesa del suolo, Accademia dei Lincei, 1–2 October 1998, Roma, 285–290, 1998.
CRESME/CINEAS/ANIA: Definizione dei costi di (ri)costruzione nell'edilizia,
edited by CINEAS, available at: http://cresme.cineas.it/ (last access:
21 March 2019), 2014.
D'Alpaos, L., Brath, A., and Fioravante, V.: Relazione tecnico-scientifica
sulle cause del collasso dell' argine del fiume Secchia avvenuto il giorno
19 gennaio 2014 presso la frazione San Matteo, available at: http://www.comune.bastiglia.mo.it/
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2014.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage
models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58,
407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
de Moel, H., Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Ward,
P. J.: Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg.
Global Change, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z, 2015.
Domeneghetti, A., Carisi, F., Castellarin, A., and Brath, A.: Evolution of flood
risk over large areas: Quantitative assessment for the Po river, J. Hydrol.,
527, 809–823, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.043, 2015.
Dottori, F., Figueiredo, R., Martina, M. L. V., Molinari, D., and Scorzini, A.
R.: INSYDE: A synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost
analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016, 2016.
EASAC: Extreme weather events in Europe, Preparing for climate change adaptation:
an update on EASAC's 2013 study, available at: https://easac.eu/publications/
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2018.
EEA – European Environment Agency: Mapping the impacts of recent natural
disasters and technological accidents in Europe – An overview of the last
decade, available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications#c7=en&c11=5&c14=&c12=&b_start=0
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2010.
EEA: Flood risks and environmental vulnerability – Exploring the synergies
between floodplain restoration, water policies and thematic policies,
https://doi.org/10.2800/039463, 2016.
Elmer, F., Thieken, A. H., Pech, I., and Kreibich, H.: Influence of flood
frequency on residential building losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10,
2145–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2145-2010, 2010.
Essenfelder, A. H.: Climate Change and Watershed Planning: Understanding the
Related Impacts and Risks, Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venezia, 2017.
Feranec, J. and Otahel, J. Final version of the 4th level CORINE land cover
classes at scale 1 : 50,000, Technical report, European Agency Phaee Topic
Link on Land Cover and Institute of Geography, Slovak Academy of Science (SAS),
Bratislava, 1998.
Figueiredo, R., Schröter, K., Weiss-Motz, A., Martina, M. L. V., and
Kreibich, H.: Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated
uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018.
Geofabrik GmbH: OpenStreetMap data extracts, available at: http://download.geofabrik.de/
(last access: 30 March 2017), 2018.
Giacinto, G. and Roli, F.: Design of effective neural network ensembles for
image classification purposes, Image Vis. Comput., 19, 699–707, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0262-8856(01)00045-2, 2001.
Gissing, A. and Blong, R.: Accounting for variability in commercial flood damage
estimation, Aust. Geogr., 35, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.1080/0004918042000249511, 2004.
Govi, M. and Turitto, O.: Casistica storica sui processi d'interazione delle
correnti di piena del Po con arginature e con elementi morfotopografici del
territorio adiacente, Sci. e vita nel momento attuale, V, 105–160, 2000.
Hagan, M. T. and Menhaj, M. B.: Training Feedforward Networks with the Marquardt
Algorithm, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, 5, 989–993, 1994.
Hallegatte, S.: An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to
the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina, Risk Anal., 28, 779–799,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01046.x, 2008.
Han, J.: Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Flood Warning Systems,
North Carolina State University, available at: https://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/handle/1840.16/4173
(last access: 21 March 2019), 2002.
Hasanzadeh Nafari, R., Amadio, M., Ngo, T., and Mysiak, J.: Flood loss modelling
with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1047–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1047-2017, 2017.
Haykin, S.: Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, 2nd Edd., Prentice
Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, 2001.
Heermann, P. D. and Khazenie, N.: Classification of multispectral remote sensing
data using a back-propagation neural network, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote., 30, 81–88, 1992.
Hsieh, W. W. and Tang, B.: Applying Neural Network Models to Prediction and
Data Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79,
1855–1870, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<1855:ANNMTP>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Huizinga, J.: Flood damage functions for EU member states, Technical report
implemented in the framework of the contract # 382441-F1SC awarded by the
European Commission – Joint Research Centre, HKV Consultants, Lelystad, 2007.
Huizinga, J., De Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W.: Methodology and the database
with guidelines Global flood depth-damage functions, Publications Office of the
European Union, ISSN: 1831-9424, https://doi.org/10.2760/16510, 2017.
ISTAT: 15∘ censimento della populazione e delle abitazioni, Istituto
nazionale di statistica, Rome, 2011.
Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J. I., Bates, P. D., Feyen, L.,
Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: Comparative flood
damage model assessment: Towards a European approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012.
Jonkman, S. N., Bočkarjova, M., Kok, M., and Bernardini, P.: Integrated
hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands, Ecol.
Econ., 66, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.12.022, 2008.
Koks, E. E., Carrera, L., Jonkeren, O., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Husby, T. G.,
Thissen, M., Standardi, G., and Mysiak, J.: Regional disaster impact analysis:
comparing input–output and computable general equilibrium models, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, 2016.
Kreibich, H. and Thieken, A. H.: Assessment of damage caused by high groundwater
inundation, Water Resour. Res., 44, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006621, 2008.
Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., and Merz, B.: Flood
loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons
learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5,
117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-117-2005, 2005.
Kreibich, H., Piroth, K., Seifert, I., Maiwald, H., Kunert, U., Schwarz, J.,
Merz, B., and Thieken, a. H.: Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood
damage modelling?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1679–1692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1679-2009, 2009.
Kreibich, H., Botto, A., Merz, B., and Schröter, K.: Probabilistic,
Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO, Risk Anal.,
37, 774–787, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12650, 2017.
Lastoria, B., Simonetti, M. R., Casaioli, M., Mariani, S., and Monacelli, G.:
Socio-economic impacts of major floods in Italy from 1951 to 2003, Adv. Geosci.,
7, 223–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-223-2006, 2006.
Liaw, A. and Wiener, M.: Classification and Regression by randomForest, R News,
2, available at: https://cran.r-project.org/doc/Rnews/ (last access:
21 March 2019), 2002.
Luino, F., Cirio, C. G., Biddoccu, M., Agangi, A., Giulietto, W., Godone, F.,
and Nigrelli, G.: Application of a model to the evaluation of flood damage,
Geoinformatica, 13, 339–353, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10707-008-0070-3, 2009.
Maier, H. R. and Dandy, G. C.: Neural networks for the prediction and forecasting
of water resources variables: A review of modelling issues and applications,
Environ. Model. Softw., 15, 101–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(99)00007-9, 2000.
Masoero, A., Claps, P., Asselman, N. E. M., Mosselman, E., and Di Baldassarre,
G.: Reconstruction and analysis of the Po River inundation of 1951, Hydrol.
Process., 27, 1341–1348, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9558, 2013.
McBean, E., Fortin, M., and Gorrie, J.: A critical analysis of residential flood
damage estimation curves, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 13, 86–94, https://doi.org/10.1139/l86-012, 1986.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., and Schmidtke, R.: Estimation uncertainty
of direct monetary flood damage to buildings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,
4, 153–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004, 2004.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article “assessment
of economic flood damage,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., and Lall, U.: Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a
tree-based data-mining approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013.
Messner, F., Penning-rowsell, E., Green, C., Tunstall, S., Van Der Veen, A.,
Tapsell, S., Wilson, T., Krywkow, J., Logtmeijer, C., Fernández-bilbao, A.,
Geurts, P., and Haase, D.: Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations
on principles and methods, FLOODsite Project Deliverable D9.1, Contract
No. GOCE-CT-2004-505420, 189, 2007.
Meyer, V. and Messner, F.: National flood damage evaluation methods: A review
of applied methods in England, the Netherlands, the Czech republic and Germany,
UFZ Discussion Papers 21/2005, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ),
Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS), 49 pp., 2005.
Molinari, D. and Scorzini, A. R.: On the influence of Input data quality to
flood damage estimation: the performance of the INSYDE model, Water, 9, 688,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090688, 2017.
Molinari, D., Menoni, S., Aronica, G. T., Ballio, F., Berni, N., Pandolfo, C.,
Stelluti, M. and Minucci, G.: Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 901–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, 2014.
Molinari, D., De Bruijn, K. M., Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T., Aronica, G. T.,
and Bouwer, L. M.: Validation of flood risk models: Current practice and possible
improvements, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 33, 441–448, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.022, 2019.
Mysiak, J., Testella, F., Bonaiuto, M., Carrus, G., De Dominicis, S., Cancellieri,
U. G., Firus, K., and Grifoni, P.: Flood risk management in Italy: Challenges
and opportunities for the implementation of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC),
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2883–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2883-2013, 2013.
Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., Thieken, A., Mechler, R., and Aerts, J.: Brief
communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction – success or
warning sign for Paris?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016.
Oliveri, E. and Santoro, M.: Estimation of urban structural flood damages: the
case study of Palermo, Urban Water, 2, 223–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1462-0758(00)00062-5, 2000.
Paprotny, D., Sebastian, A., Morales-Nápoles, O., and Jonkman, S. N.: Trends
in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years, Nat. Commun., 9, 1985,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1, 2018.
Penning-Rowsell, E., Johnson, C., Tunstall, S., Morris, J., Chatterton, J.,
Green, C., Koussela, K., and Fernandez-bilbao, A.: The Benefits of Flood and
Coastal Risk Management: a Handbook of Assessment Techniques, Middlesex
Univ. Press, Middlesex, Hydraulic Engineering Reports, ISBN 1904750516, 2005.
Pistrika, A. K. and Jonkman, S. N.: Damage to residential buildings due to
flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina, Nat. Hazards, 54, 413–434,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9476-y, 2010.
Rossetti, S., Cella, O. W., and Lodigiani, V.: Studio idrologico-idraulico del
tratto di F. Adda inserito nel territorio comunale di Lodi, Milano, Studio
Paoletti Ingegneri Associati, Milano, 2010.
Scawthorn, C., Flores, P., Blais, N., Seligson, H., Tate, E., Chang, S., Mifflin,
E., Thomas, W., Murphy, J., Jones, C., and Lawrence, M.: HAZUS-MH Flood Loss
Estimation Methodology. II. Damage and Loss Assessment, Nat. Hazards Rev., 7,
72–81, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2006)7:2(72), 2006.
Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., and
Merz, B.: How useful are complex flood damage models?, Water Resour. Res., 50,
3378–3395, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014396. Received, 2014.
Scorzini, A., Radice, A., and Molinari, D.: A New Tool to Estimate Inundation
Depths by Spatial Interpolation (RAPIDE): Design, Application and Impact on
Quantitative Assessment of Flood Damages, Water, 10, 1805, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121805, 2018.
Scorzini, A. R. and Frank, E.: Flood damage curves: new insights from the
2010 flood in Veneto, Italy, J. Flood Risk Manage., 10, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12163, 2017.
Scorzini, A. R. and Leopardi, M.: River basin planning: from qualitative to
quantitative flood risk assessment: the case of Abruzzo Region (central Italy),
Nat. Hazards, 88, 71–93, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2857-8, 2017.
Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Application and
validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1315–1324, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.536440, 2010.
Sluijs, L., Snuverink, M., van den Berg, K., and Wiertz, A.: Schadecurves
industrie ten gevolge van overstroming, Tebodin Consultant, RWS DWW, Den Haag, 2000.
Smith, D.: Flood damage estimation. A review of urban stage-damage curves and
loss function, Water SA, 20, 231–238, 1994.
Spekkers, M. H., Kok, M., Clemens, F. H. L. R., and ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.:
Decision-tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building structure
and content damage, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2531–2547,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2531-2014, 2014.
Steffler, P. and Blackburn, J.: River2D – Two-dimensional depth averaged model
of river hydrodynamics and fish habitat, Cumulative Environmental Management
Association, Fort McMurray, CA, 2002.
Tesfamariam, S. and Liu, Z.: Earthquake induced damage classification for
reinforced concrete buildings, Struct. Saf., 32, 154–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.10.002, 2010.
Thieken, A. H., Müller, M., Kreibich, H., and Merz, B.: Flood damage and
influencing factors: New insights from the August 2002 flood in Germany, Water
Resour. Res., 41, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004177, 2005.
Thieken, A. H., Olschewski, A., Kreibich, H., Kobach, S., and Merz, B.:
Development and evaluation of FLEMOps – a new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for
the private sector, Flood Recover. Innov. Response, WIT Press, Southampton, UK, 315–324, 2008.
Thieken, A. H., Ackermann, V., Elmer, F., Kreibich, H., Kuhlmann, B., Kunert,
U., Maiwald, H., Merz, B., Müller, M., Piroth, K., Schwarz, J., Schwarze,
R., Seifert, I., and Seifert, J.: Methods for the evaluation of direct and
indirect flood losses, in: RIMAX Contrib. 4th Int. Symp. Flood Def.,
6–8 May 2008, Toronto, CA, 1–10, 2009.
Tobin, G. A.: The levee love affair: a stormy relationship?, J. Am. Water
Resour. Assoc., 31, 359–367, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb04025.x, 1995.
Vacondio, R., Dal Palù, A., and Mignosa, P.: GPU-enhanced finite volume
shallow water solver for fast flood simulations, Environ. Model. Softw., 57,
60–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.02.003, 2014.
Vacondio, R., Aureli, F., Ferrari, A., Mignosa, P., and Dal Palù, A.:
Simulation of the January 2014 flood on the Secchia River using a fast and
high-resolution 2D parallel shallow-water numerical scheme, Nat. Hazards, 80,
103–125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1959-4, 2016.
Vacondio, R., Dal Palù, A., Ferrari, A., Mignosa, P., Aureli, F., and Dazzi,
S.: A non-uniform efficient grid type for GPU-parallel Shallow Water Equations
models, Environ. Model. Softw., 88, 119–137, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2016.11.012, 2017.
Van Ootegem, L., Verhofstadt, E., Van Herck, K., and Creten, T.: Multivariate
pluvial flood damage models, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 54, 91–100,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2015.05.005, 2015.
Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Schroeter, K., Kreibich, H., and Merz,
B.: Challenges for Bayesian Network Learning in a Flood Damage Assessment
Application, in: 11th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability,
16–20 June 2013, CRC Press, New York, USA, 3123–3130, 2013.
Wagenaar, D., de Jong, J., and Bouwer, L. M.: Data-mining for multi-variable
flood damage modelling with limited data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-7, in review, 2017a.
Wagenaar, D., de Jong, J. and Bouwer, L. M.: Multi-variable flood damage
modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1683-2017, 2017b.
Wagenaar, D., Lüdtke, S., Schröter, K., Bouwer, L. M., and Kreibich,
H.: Regional and Temporal Transferability of Multivariable Flood Damage Models,
Water Resour. Res., 54, 3688–3703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022233, 2018.
Wagenaar, D. J., De Bruijn, K. M., Bouwer, L. M., and De Moel, H.: Uncertainty
in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1-2016, 2016.
Wang, Z., Lai, C., Chen, X., Yang, B., Zhao, S., and Bai, X.: Flood hazard risk
assessment model based on random forest, J. Hydrol., 527, 1130–1141,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.008, 2015.
Yu, H. and Wilamowski, B. M.: Levenberg-Marquardt Training, Intell. Syst.,
5, 12–18, https://doi.org/10.1201/b10604-15, 2011.
Zampetti, G., Ottaviani, F., and Minutolo, A.: I costi del rischio idrogeologico,
Dossier Legambiente, Roma, 2012.
Zhou, Q., Panduro, T. E., Thorsen, B. J., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: Verification
of flood damage modelling using insurance data, Water Sci. Technol., 68, 425–432,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.268, 2013.
Short summary
Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different complexities. We compared the performances of expert-based and empirical damage models on three major flood events in northern Italy. Our findings suggest that multivariate models have better potential to provide reliable damage estimates if extensive ancillary characterisation data are available. Expert-based approaches are better suited for transferability compared to empirically based approaches.
Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint