Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Nov 2019
Research article |
| 20 Nov 2019
| 20 Nov 2019
Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenç, Mallorca (Spain)
Department of Geography, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Arnau Amengual
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Celso Garcia
Department of Geography, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Enrique Morán-Tejeda
Department of Geography, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Víctor Homar
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Aina Maimó-Far
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Alejandro Hermoso
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Climent Ramis
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Romualdo Romero
Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma,
07122, Spain
Related authors
Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Jorge Luis Ceballos, Katherine Peña, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5445–5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the recent evolution of a small glacier in the Colombian Andes that is close to extinction, focusing on the water release from the glacier. For this we used hydro-climatological data collected at the the glacier surroundings at an hourly resolution. Our results indicate that water from glacier melt increased as a consequence of accelerated glacier retreat, but up to a certain point (mid-2016) it started to decrease, with glacier melt becoming decreasingly important.
Kerry Emanuel, Tommaso Alberti, Stella Bourdin, Suzana J. Camargo, Davide Faranda, Manos Flaounas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Chia-Ying Lee, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Claudia Pasquero, Alice Portal, Hamish Ramsay, and Romualdo Romero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometime observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become locally much colder than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form, but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "cyclops".
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Saoussen Dhib, Víctor Homar, Zoubeida Bargaoui, and Mariadelmar Vich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Previous evaluation of rainfall estimation by satellite algorithms showed an insufficient over Northern Tunisia. That was why we tried the WRF. We selected four heavy rainy days. For each day, 99 combinations of Cu and PBL are simulated. The sensitivity study highlighted the large difference in the estimation by the different schemes. The use of several verification techniques was extremely helpful to choose the best combinations for each event. The ensemble method gave very satisfying results.
Hélène Roux, Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, Ernest Bladé, and Marcos Sanz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 425–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Jorge Luis Ceballos, Katherine Peña, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5445–5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the recent evolution of a small glacier in the Colombian Andes that is close to extinction, focusing on the water release from the glacier. For this we used hydro-climatological data collected at the the glacier surroundings at an hourly resolution. Our results indicate that water from glacier melt increased as a consequence of accelerated glacier retreat, but up to a certain point (mid-2016) it started to decrease, with glacier melt becoming decreasingly important.
Climent Ramis, Romualdo Romero, Víctor Homar, Sergio Alonso, Agustí Jansà, and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2351–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
During the hydrological year 2015–2016 (September to August) a severe drought affected the Balearic Islands, with substantial consequences on water availability. In this paper we analyze this anomalous episode in terms of the corresponding water balance. It is shown that the drought was the result of a lack of winter precipitation, the lowest in the last 43 years. In several analyzed meteorological stations, evaporation was greater than precipitation during all the months of the year.
Béatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Discharge forecasts are affected by meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood. In this work, an intercomparison of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies is presented for heavy precipitation events that affected semi-arid Spanish catchments. Both stategies are more beneficial than a deterministic approach when conveying information to end-users. Their skill is enhanced by shorter forecasting lead-times.
Beatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Several hydrometeorological prediction systems were designed for two heavy precipitation events that affected Spanish Mediterranean catchments. The uncertainty on precipitation forecasting is sampled through probabilistic atmospheric systems based on two distinct kilometric-scale models. The rainfall scenarios are used to drive two distinct hydrological models. These strategies have proven useful for discharge forecasting, allowing to better encompass the arising uncertainty.
Toni López Mayol, Víctor Homar, Climent Ramis, and José Antonio Guijarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a very high-resolution atlas of daily precipitations across the Balearic Islands. The generation of this data set not only allows us to lay the groundwork for future updates ingesting a myriad of observation sources but also aims to provide support to local and network–topology independent studies of precipitation–sensitive systems such as ecosystems, water resources and energy systems. As an example, a better understanding of the negative precipitation trends is found.
A. Jansa, P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, C. Ramis, E. Richard, R. Romero, and A. Speranza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. Alonso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Recent large inland lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: Processes, causes and mechanisms
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Brief Communication: Rapid high-resolution flood impact-based early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Dynamics and Impacts of Monsoon-Induced Geological Hazards: A 2022 Flood Study along the Swat River in Pakistan
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out, and structural changes challenge Berlin's water resources management. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater, and surface water. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. Addressing these challenges requires extensive measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large inland lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, the processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modelling. The causes and mechanisms that triggered the two events were investigated.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D, a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions, ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the 2022 monsoon in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, where record rainfall exceeded averages by 7–8 %, causing catastrophic debris flows and floods. These events worsened challenges for low-income communities, resulting in extensive damage and financial instability. Field investigations, remote sensing, and simulations identified deforestation and steep topography as key factors. The study advocates for disaster mitigation, reforestation, and better land use planning.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Cited articles
Alaghmand, S., Abustan, I., Eslamian, S., and bin Abdullah, R.: Comparison
between capabilities of HEC-RAS and MIKE11 hydraulic models in river flood
risk modeling (a case study of Sungai Kayu Ara River basin, Malaysia), Artic. Int. J. Hydrol. Sci. Technol., 2, 270–291, https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2012.049187, 2012.
Amengual, A., Homar, V., and Jaume, O.: Potential of a probabilistic
hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme
flash flood in Murcia, Spain, Atmos. Res., 166, 10–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2015.06.012, 2015.
Amengual, A., Carrió, D. S., Ravazzani, G., and Homar, V.: A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case
Study in Valencia, Spain, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1143–1166,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0281.1, 2017.
Bagnold, R. A.: An approach to the sediment transport problem from general
physics, Geological Survey, Washington, 1966.
Baker, V. and Costa, J. E.: Flood power, in Catastrophic flooding, Binghamton Symposia in Geomorphology, International Series 18, edited by: Mayer, L. and Nash, D., Allen & Unwin, Oxford, Ohio, 1–21, 1987.
Batalla, R. J., De Jong, C., Ergenzinger, P., and Sala, M.: Field
observations on hyperconcentrated flows in mountain torrents, Earth Surf.
Proc. Land., 24, 247–253,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1096-9837(199903)24:3<247::AID-ESP961>3.0.CO;2-1, 1999.
Bodoque, J. M., Díez-Herrero, A., Amerigo, M., García, J. A., and Olcina, J.: Enhancing flash flood risk perception and awareness of mitigation actions through risk communication: A pre-post survey design, J. Hydrol., 568, 769–779, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.007, 2019.
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., Sangati, M., Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., and Sangati, M.: Hydrometeorological Analysis of the 29 August 2003 Flash Flood in the Eastern Italian Alps, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM593.1, 2007.
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic
response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris
flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014.
Burcea, S., Cică, R., and Bojariu, R.: Radar-derived convective storms'
climatology for the Prut River basin: 2003–2017, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 19, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, 2019.
Camarasa-Belmonte, A. M. and Segura-Beltrán, F.: Flood events in Mediterranean ephemeral streams (ramblas) in Valencia region, Spain, Catena,
45, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0341-8162(01)00146-1, 2001.
Camenen, B., Jodeau, M., and Jaballah, M.: Estimate of fine sediment deposit
dynamics over a gravel bar using photography analysis Estimate of fine
sediment deposit dynamics on a gravel bar using photography analysis, Int.
J. Sediment Res., 28, 220–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1001-6279(13)60033-5, 2013.
Carbonneau, P. E., Bergeron, N. E., and Lane, S. N.: Texture-based image
segmentation applied to the quantification of superficial sand in salmonid
river gravels, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 30, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1140, 2005.
Chow, T. C., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W.: Applied Hydrology, in: McGraw Hill Series in Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1988.
Cohuet, J. B., Romero, R., Homar, V., Ducrocq, V., and Ramis, C.: Initiation
of a severe thunderstorm over the Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 100,
603–620, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2010.11.002, 2011.
Cole, S. J. and Moore, R. J.: Hydrological modelling using raingauge- and
radar-based estimators of areal rainfall, J. Hydrol., 358, 159–181,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2008.05.025, 2008.
Costabile, P. and Macchione, F.: Enhancing river model set-up for 2-D dynamic flood modelling, Environ. Model. Softw., 67, 89–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.009, 2015.
Curebal, I., Efe, R., Ozdemir, H., Soykan, A., and Sönmez, S.: GIS-based
approach for flood analysis: case study of Keçidere flash flood event
(Turkey), Geocarto Int., 31, 355–366, https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2015.1047411,
2016.
Da Ros, D. and Borga: Use of digital elevation model data for the derivation
of the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph, Hydrol. Process.,
11, 13–33, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199701)11:1<13::AID-HYP400>3.0.CO;2-M, 1997.
Delrieu, G., Nicol, J., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P.-E., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., Obled, C., Saulnier, G.-M., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Payrastre, O., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Neppel, L., Livet, M., Lang, M.,
du-Châtelet, J. P., Walpersdorf, A., Wobrock, W., Delrieu, G., Nicol, J., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P.-E., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., Obled, C., Saulnier, G.-M., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Payrastre, O., Andrieu, H., Ayral,
P.-A., Bouvier, C., Neppel, L., Livet, M., Lang, M., du-Châtelet, J. P.,
Walpersdorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The Catastrophic Flash-Flood Event of
8–9 September 2002 in the Gard Region, France: A First Case Study for the
Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory, J.
Hydrometeorol., 6, 34–52, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-400.1, 2005.
DGRRHH: Estudio de caracterización del régimen extremo de precipitaciones en la isla de mallorca, Madrid, 2001.
Doswell, C. A., Ramis, C., Romero, R., and Alonso, S.: A Diagnostic Study of
Three Heavy Precipitation Episodes in the Western Mediterranean Region,
Weather Forecast., 13, 102–124, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0102:ADSOTH>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Estrany, J., Garcia, C., and Alberich, R.: Streamflow dynamics in a Mediterranean temporary river, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 717–736,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.493740, 2010.
European Environment Agency: Flood risks and environmental vulnerability
exploring the synergies between floodplain restoration, water policies and
thematic policies, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2016.
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A.,
Blaškovičová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A.,
Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A.,
Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., and Viglione, A.: A
compilation of data on European flash floods, J. Hydrol., 367, 70–78,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2008.12.028, 2009.
Giannoni, F., Smith, J. A., Zhang, Y., and Roth, G.: Hydrologic modeling of
extreme floods using radar rainfall estimates, Adv. Water Resour., 26,
195–203, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00091-X, 2003.
Govern de les Illes Balears: Informe de valoración de daños
inundaciones comarca de LLevant de Mallorca, Palma, 2018.
Grimalt, M. and Rodríguez-Perea, A.: Cabals màxims al Llevant i Migjorn de Mallorca durant les revingudes del setembre de 1989, Treballs
Geogr., 42, 7–18, 1989.
Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S., Hamill, T. M., and Whitaker, J. S.: Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Reforecast Analogs: Theory and Application, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 3209–3229, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3237.1, 2006.
Horritt, M. S. and Bates, P. D.: Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models
for predicting river flood inundation, J. Hydrol., 268, 87–99,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00121-X, 2002.
Hunter, S. M.: WSR-88D Radar rainfall estimation: capabilities, limitations
and potential improvements, Natl. Weather Dig., 20, 26–38, 1996.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2012.
Jankov, I., Berner, J., Beck, J., Jiang, H., Olson, J. B., Grell, G., Smirnova, T. G., Benjamin, S. G., Brown, J. M., Jankov, I., Berner, J.,
Beck, J., Jiang, H., Olson, J. B., Grell, G., Smirnova, T. G., Benjamin, S.
G., and Brown, J. M.: A Performance Comparison between Multiphysics and
Stochastic Approaches within a North American RAP Ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0160.1, 2017.
Khattak, M. S., Anwar, F., Saeed, T. U., Sharif, M., Sheraz, K., and Ahmed,
A.: Floodplain Mapping Using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS: A Case Study of Kabul River, Arab. J. Sci. Eng., 41, 1375–1390, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-015-1915-3, 2016.
Knebl, M. R., Yang, Z.-L., Hutchison, K., and Maidment, D. R.: Regional scale
flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for
the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event, J. Environ. Manage., 75, 325–336, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2004.11.024, 2005.
Kolios, S. and Feidas, H.: A warm season climatology of mesoscale convective
systems in the Mediterranean basin using satellite data, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 102, 29–42, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0241-7, 2010.
Lillesand, T. M., Kiefer, R. W., and Chipman, J. W.: Remote sensing and image
interpretation, Wiley, New York, 736 pp., 2015.
Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Prat, M. A., PorcúPorc, F., Price, C.,
Mugnai, A., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Katsanos, D., Michaelides, S., Yair, Y., Savvidou, K., and Nicolaides, K.: High-impact floods and flash
floods in Mediterranean countries: the FLASH preliminary database, Adv. Geosci., 23, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-23-47-2010, 2010.
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Llasat-Botija, M., Gilabert, J., Turco, M., and
Quintana-Seguí, P.: Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 149, 230–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2014.05.024, 2014.
MAPAMA: Sistema Nacionald de Cartografía de Zonas Inundables, available at: https://sig.mapama.gob.es/snczi/visor.html?herramienta=DPHZI (last access: 7 March 2019), 2010.
Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., and Gaume, E.: Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk
management, J. Hydrol., 394, 118–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2010.07.017, 2010.
Marchi, L., Cavalli, M., Amponsah, W., Borga, M., and Crema, S.: Upper limits
of flash flood stream power in Europe, Geomorphology, 272, 68–77,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2015.11.005, 2016.
Martínez, C., Campins, J., Jansà, A., and Genovés, A.: Heavy rain events in the Western Mediterranean: an atmospheric pattern classification, Adv. Sci. Res., 2, 61–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-2-61-2008, 2008.
Martín-Vide, J. P. and Llasat, M. C.: The 1962 flash flood in the Rubí stream (Barcelona, Spain), J. Hydrol., 566, 441–454,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2018.09.028, 2018.
Merritt, D. M. and Wohl, E. E.: Downstream hydraulic geometry and channel
adjustment during a flood along an ephemeral, arid-region drainage,
Geomorphology, 52, 165–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00241-6, 2003.
Montaldo, N., Toninelli, V., Albertson, J. D., Mancini, M., and Troch, P. A.:
The effect of background hydrometeorological conditions on the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to model parameters: analysis with measurements from an Italian alpine catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 848–861,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-7-848-2003, 2003.
Nguyen, H. Q., Degener, J., and Kappas, M.: Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam, Hydrology, 2, 242–265, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology2040242, 2015.
Nuissier, O., Joly, B., Joly, A., Ducrocq, V., and Arbogast, P.: A statistical downscaling to identify the large-scale circulation patterns associated with heavy precipitation events over southern France, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1812–1827, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.866, 2011.
Ortega, J. A. and Garzón-Heydt, G.: Geomorphological and sedimentological analysis of flash-flood deposits: The case of the 1997 Rivillas flood (Spain), Geomorphology, 112, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2009.05.004, 2009.
Papaioannou, G., Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., and Aronica, G. T.: Flood
inundation mapping sensitivity to riverine spatial resolution and modelling
approach, Nat. Hazards, 83, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2382-1, 2016.
Papaioannou, G., Efstratiadis, A., Vasiliades, L., Loukas, A., Papalexiou, S., Koukouvinos, A., Tsoukalas, I., and Kossieris, P.: An Operational Method
for Flood Directive Implementation in Ungauged Urban Areas, Hydrology, 5,
24, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5020024, 2018.
Pellarin, T., Delrieu, G., Saulnier, G.-M., Andrieu, H., Vignal, B., Creutin, J.-D., Pellarin, T., Delrieu, G., Saulnier, G.-M., Andrieu, H., Vignal, B., and Creutin, J.-D.: Hydrologic Visibility of Weather Radar Systems Operating in Mountainous Regions: Case Study for the Ardèche Catchment (France), J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 539–555,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0539:HVOWRS>2.0.CO;2,
2002.
Pierson, T. C.: Hyperconcentrated flow – transitional process between water flow and debris flow, in: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 159–202, 2005.
Ravazzani, G., Corbari, C., Morella, S., Gianoli, P., and Mancini, M.: Modified Hargreaves-Samani Equation for the Assessment of Reference
Evapotranspiration in Alpine River Basins, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 138,
592–599, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000453, 2012.
Ravazzani, G., Amengual, A., Ceppi, A., Homar, V., Romero, R., Lombardi, G., and Mancini, M.: Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area, J. Hydrol., 539, 237–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2016.05.023, 2016.
Righini, M., Surian, N., Wohl, E., Marchi, L., Comiti, F., Amponsah, W., and
Borga, M.: Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two Mediterranean rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): Analysis of controlling factors,
Geomorphology, 290, 184–199, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2017.04.014, 2017.
Romero, R., Ramis, C., Alonso, S., Doswell, C. A., and Stensrud, D. J.: Mesoscale Model Simulations of Three Heavy Precipitation Events in the
Western Mediterranean Region, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1859–1881,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1859:MMSOTH>2.0.CO;2,
1998.
Romero, R., Sumner, G., Ramis, C., and Genovés, A.: A classification of
the atmospheric circulation patterns producing significant daily rainfall in
the Spanish Mediterranean area, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 765–785,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19990615)19:7<765::AID-JOC388>3.0.CO;2-T, 1999.
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Bodoque, J. M., Díez-Herrero, A., Eguibar, M. A., and Pardo-Igúzquiza, E.: Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood
transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin, Hydrol. Process., 27, 3424–3437, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9433, 2013.
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Bladé Castellet, E., Díez-Herrero, A., Bodoque, J. M., and Sánchez-Juny, M.: Two-dimensional modelling of large wood transport during flash floods, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 39, 438–449, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3456, 2014.
Sabat, F., Muñoz, J. A., and Santanach, P.: Transversal and oblique
structures at the Serres de Llevant thrust belt (Mallorca Island), Geol.
Rundschau, 77, 529–538, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01832396, 1988.
Schumann, G. J., Muhlhausen, J., and Andreadis, K. M.: Rapid Mapping of
Small-Scale River-Floodplain Environments Using UAV SfM Supports Classical
Theory, Remote Sens., 11, 982, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11080982, 2019.
Tarolli, P., Borga, M., Morin, E., and Delrieu, G.: Analysis of flash flood regimes in the North-Western and South-Eastern Mediterranean regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1255–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1255-2012, 2012.
Teng, J., Jakeman, A. J., Vaze, J., Croke, B. F. W., Dutta, D., and Kim, S.:
Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and
uncertainty analysis, Environ. Model. Softw., 90, 201–216,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSOFT.2017.01.006, 2017.
US Army Corps of Engineers: HEC-RAS River Analysis System Hydraulic Reference Manual, Version 5, Davis, California, 2016.
USDA: Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds, USDA TR-55, Washington, D.C., 1986.
Wilks, D. S.: Use of stochastic weathergenerators for precipitation downscaling, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change, 1, 898–907, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.85, 2010.
Yalcin, E.: Two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling for urban flood risk assessment using unmanned aerial vehicle imagery: A case study of Kirsehir, Turkey, J. Flood Risk Manage., 12, e12499, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12499, 2019.
Yochum, S. E., Sholtes, J. S., Scott, J. A., and Bledsoe, B. P.: Stream power
framework for predicting geomorphic change: The 2013 Colorado Front Range
flood, Geomorphology, 292, 178–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2017.03.004,
2017.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(37228 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm (> 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the Ses Planes torrent that devastated the town of Sant Llorenç (Mallorca, Spain). Water reached a depth of 3 m in the most affected areas, and there was greatly increased flow velocity at bridges crossing the town. The floodwaters were very powerful and modified the channel morphology: more than 5000 t of sediment was deposited in the 2 km reach upstream of the town.
On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm ( 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint